Would The Penguins Be Better Off In The Post-Season By NOT Winning The Atlantic Division??

Ever since the Atlantic Division became pretty much a two-horse race, the Pittsburgh Penguins and New Jersey Devils have been jockeying back and forth, and for weeks and weeks -- months really -- you've heard me keep you updated on the standings in this space.

You've also heard me talk about how important it is for the Pens to win the Division and assure themselves the #2 (or, with the recent resurgence of the Buffalo Sabres, at least the #3) seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs.

However, after watching the Penguins' play for about a month now after the Olympic break ended, I'm not so sure that the team would be worse off if it finishes the year 2nd in the Divison and 4th in the Eastern Conference.

Allow me to explain.

With the Washington Capitals long having been positioned as the top seed in the East (and now having officially captured the President's Trophy as the NHL's best regular season team), the idea behind wanting to finish 2nd (or 3rd) in the conferene was to be sure to avoid them, if possible, until the Eastern Conference Finals.

If the chalk held, 2 other teams would have cracks at upsetting the Caps, while the Pens' could get back in their post-season groove before facing what everyone commonly believes will be the toughest matchup in the conference in round 3.

That's still a fair scenario for Pittsburgh -- there's no doubt.

But it may not be a good idea to think so far ahead.

The Penguins would have to get to round 3, after all.

And maybe the Pens' best path to getting back to the Eastern Conference finals for the 3rd straight season isn't one which would match them up against the Caps' in that round, but instead might let them see the Caps' one round sooner. Like they did last season.

And no, I'm not suggesting that simply because that's the path Pittsburgh took to win the Stanley Cup last year.

I'm suggesting that for another reason.

If the Penguins win the Atlantic Division and finish 2nd (or 3rd) in the East, they're likely going to match up against a notably weaker opponent in the first round -- either the New York Rangers, Boston Bruins or Philadelphia Flyers, most likely. At best, they might draw the Montreal Canadiens. They could even draw the Atlanta Thrashers.

All of those clubs are squads the Penguins should be able to handle.

HOWEVER, based on the relatively inconsistent way Pittsburgh has been playing lately, they may be better off facing a stronger opponent in the first round -- someone who will test them and force them to get on their game quicker, rather than an opponent like the Bruins or Rangers who may lull them into a false sense of playoff security.

The Ottawa Senators -- pretty much locked into the #5 hole in the East, and ticketed to play the 2nd place finisher in the Atlantic Division -- would provide that test.

Sure, there are dangers to going that route. I mean, it's never a bad idea to face a weaker team because doing so could let a club get on a roll, and almost every Stanley Cup Champion needs an easy series along the way -- whether expected or unexpected.

Pittsburgh happened to get theirs last year in the Conference Finals against the Carolina Hurricanes.

But the Penguins are playoff tested, and I think their uneven level of play recently shows they may need quickly jumpstarted back into that mode.

An early, first-round romp over the bottom feeders in the East may not provide that to them.

If Pittsburgh wins the Atlantic, the best case scenario for them in the first round might be to match up against -- of all the teams mentioned above -- the arch-rival Flyers.

Yes, the Flyers have a lot of talent and there's a risk to facing a club with skill who has underachieved but can break out at any point.

Unfortunately for the Pens' cross-state rivals, Philadelphia's goaltending is a total disaster and that alone is likely to keep them from doing anything in the post-season.

Still, because they are such a big rival to Pittsburgh, the Pens' would not likely take them lightly. The Flyers would force them to get up for every game and assume the physical mentality that's necessary for the grind of a long post-season.

If the Penguins draw the Bruins, Rangers, Thrashers or Canadiens in the first round instead, they probably will win, but may also be more susceptible to defeat in round two at the hands of what would expectedly be a strong Buffalo Sabres club.

I'm not saying that the Penguins are absolutely, 100% in a better position if they finish 2nd in the Division and 4th in the East where they would match up against a competitive Senators team to start the playoffs -- and then, potentially, the heavyweight Capitals in the second round.

But that may be the best route for the team this year.

I guess we'll see.

Speaking of the Capitals, I'll have a game preview of the Pens' final meeting with Washington tomorrow.