Penguins v. Senators: Eastern Conference Quarterfinals Breakdown/Analysis

As the Pittsburgh Penguins get ready to face-off against the Ottawa Senators tonight in game 1 of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinal at Mellon Arena (7:00 PM EST, VERSUS), there's certainly no lack of playoff familiarity between these two clubs.

This is the 3rd time in the last 4 years the teams have seen each other in the opening round, with the Senators beating the Penguins in 5 games in the 2007 post-season, and Pittsburgh turning things around and sweeping Ottawa in 4 contests in 2008.

It wouldn't surprise me if the series this year broke similarly and wrapped up in 4 or 5 games, but I'd be more shocked if we didn't see a longer battle between these clubs this time around.

As I have in the past, here's my breakdown of the series, focusing on a position-by-position analysis of each team, along with a breakdown of the two clubs' special teams, coaching and intangibles. I'll also identify 3 players to watch from each club and talk about how each team can win the series before offering my predicition.

So, without further adieu:


FORWARDS

In recent years, Ottawa has moved from being more of a top-heavy team to a team with a bit more overall balance. However, they are still led by center Jason Spezza and LW Daniel Alfredsson up front. You can always count on Alfredsson to show up and he's traditionally had success against Pittsburgh. I can't say the same about Spezza, but he has been playing very well lately, with 14 points in his last 8 games. Carrie Underwood's soon-to-be husband (Mike Fisher) will center the second line. Fisher is actually the Senators' top goal scorer this season, with just 25, and is a solid two-way guy up the middle for Ottawa. Milan Michalek is just coming off an injury, so it remains to be seen whether he's at full-strength. He has 22 goals and 34 points in 66 games this season. Beyond those players, the Senators will roll a 3rd line out that includes Chris Kelly, former Penguin Jarkko Ruutu, and rugged Chris Neil. They like to cycle the puck and be physical down low. The Sens will be missing RW Alexei Kovalev for this series, after he suffered a season-ending knee injury about 10 days ago. Losing him certainly hurts Ottawa's depth up front in this series.

The Penguins' are obviously led up front by their Captain, center Sidney Crosby. Crosby hasn't had great overall success against the Senators in his career, but put that on the short list of things the Art Ross, Hart, Rocket Richard, Gold Medal and Stanley Cup winner has not accomplished. Yet. Behind him, you know what you'll get from Evgeni Malkin -- who is heating up at just the right time after a subpar season -- and 3rd line matchup nightmare Jordan Staal. As usual, the big question for the Penguins will be what production they'll get from the guys that patrol the boards for those guys. Veteran Bil Guerin and teammates Alexei Ponikarovsky, Chris Kunitz, Pascal Dupuis and Ruslan Fedotenko will all see some time on the top two lines, although Kunitz remains somewhat of a question mark for game 1 with an ongoing shoulder injury. Tyler Kennedy and Matt Cooke will flank Staal on one of the best 3rd lines in the game. They will probably be matched up often against the Spezza line. Last year's Stanley Cup hero, Max Talbot, may actually be a healthy scratch because of the depth the Penguins have up front with guys like Mike Rupp and Craig Adams. Overall, the Penguins have a good mix of youth, experience, finesse and grit.

ADVANTAGE: Pittsburgh


DEFENSEMEN

The Senators are led on the blueline by their shutdown pair of Anton Volchenkov and Chris Philips. Both are big, physical (although Volchenkov does more of the heavy lifting in this area), and positionally-sound. They'll be matched up against Crosby whenever possible in this series and, as I mentioned, have done well against him in the past. After that, Ottawa will trot out former New York Islander blueliner Andy Sutton and rookie Erik Karlsson. These two rearguards are opposites. Sutton is the big, hulking shot-blocker. Karlsson is the skilled, finesse player. There was a lot of talk before this year's trade deadline about the Penguins aquiring Sutton, so it will be interesting to see him up close in this series. Karlsson has put up a decent 26 points in 60 games as a rookie this season and, while he struggled early this year, he has been especially good down the stretch, putting up 12 points and a plus 7 rating in the Sens' final 10 contests. Ottawa's third pair -- Matt Carkner and Chris Campoli -- isn't going to open up a lot of eyes. Carkner is steady, and Campoli is the puck-mover. Ottawa will be without top-4 blueliner Filip Kuba in this series due to him undergoing back surgery recently, and that's a big loss for them.

Pittsburgh's group of rearguards isn't as physical as Ottawa's, but that doesn't weigh heavily in my mind since every player -- stay-at-home or finesse -- steps up his physical play in the post-season. Brooks Oprik will be counted on to lay the lumber on the Senators' top forwards in this series, but don't underestimate Kris Letang's ability to be physical on the backline, too. Still, the strength of this group for the Penguins is their ability to move the puck. Power play quarterback and blueline leader Sergei Gonchar leads the way for Pittsburgh in this area, but Letang and Alex Goligoski are loaded with skill, too. Even Mark Eaton had 4 goals in last year's post-season. The wild-card of the group is new addition Jordan Leopold, who's been a great fit for the Penguins in Dan Bylsma's system, and has put up 4 goals in his last 9 games. The concern the Pens' defensemen have, though, is in their own end, where they have been inconsistent most of the year. If they cut down on the turnovers, that can make the difference.

I might be inclined to give the Senators the edge here, but the fact remains that, despite their blueline personnel, they have given up more goals this year than any playoff team, and have the worst goal differential of any post-season club at -13. The Penguins, by comparison, are +20 in that category. Therefore, the comparison here has to be a push.

ADVANTAGE: EVEN


GOALTENDING

This is the positional matchup that has the biggest gap, not so much because of the regular season numbers of the two players -- which are very similar -- but because Pens' netminder Marc-Andre Fleury has a Stanley Cup ring, back-to-back Final appearances to his credit, and a history/reputation of ratching up his game when the stakes are the highest, while Senators' rookie goalie Brian Elliot will be suiting up for his first playoff contest.

With 29 wins, a 2.57 GAA and .909 SV%, Elliot is not a guy that will steal games, but he is capable of providing solid netminding. The question will be how he fares in the clutch? Will the Penguins be able to get to him? It's not completely out of the ordinary for rookie goaltenders to make their name in the post-season, but many more fail than succeed at that effort.

For his part, Fleury again hasn't had an overwhelming regular season, and his numbers this year -- a 2.65 GAA and .905 SV% -- were earned honestly. BUT, as his 37 wins attest, he knows what matters the most. Still, Fleury needs to step up his play in the playoffs if the Penguins are going to win this series and move on.

ADVANTAGE: Pittsburgh


SPECIAL TEAMS

Ironically, the special teams units of both clubs finished just about even in both areas. The Pens were 19th on the power play; Ottawa was 21st. The Senators were 8th on the PK; Pittsburgh, 9th. Whichever team is able to improve on the man-advantage and maintain their man-down percentage will gain an edge in this category. For now, it's even.

ADVANTAGE: Even.


COACHING

Senators' coach Cory Clouston has done a good job with his team, in my opinion. He got them to bounce back from missing the post-season last year to a solid 5th overall finish this year. His club can still be streaky at times, though, and he still doesn't have a lot of big league experience on his resume, but the same thing was true of his counterpart behind the Penguins' bench, Dan Bylsma, last year. So, while Clouston's inexperience alone isn't something that can't be overcome, he hasn't gone through the wars yet. Bylsma hasn't been able to help get his team to start steamrolling opponents as he did after taking over last season, but he remains a good strategist and motivator who has proven he can match wits with the best of them. And he has the Cup ring to prove it.

ADVANTAGE: Pittsburgh


INTANGIBLES

Pittsburgh has the home-ice advantage in this series, and they've only lost 2 home games to Eastern Conference teams throughout the last two post-seasons. In its final season, Mellon Arena remains a tough place to play for the opposition. Despite their relative youth, the Penguins also have proven they know what it takes to win in the playoffs. The Senators' have several players who have been through post-season wars, too, but as a collective group, Pittsburgh has the edge in this area.

ADVANTAGE: Pittsburgh


SENATORS' PLAYERS TO WATCH

1) C - Jason Spezza -- If Spezza has a bad series, Ottawa has almost no chance to win. He's that important to their success. He's certainly capable, but has a mixed track record of producing when it matters. He could have trouble in this matchup if he sees a lot of Staal, who's a guy that can skate with him and physically wear him down.

2) C - Mike Fisher -- A big question to be answered in this series is which Fisher will show up -- the one that started the season looking like he deserved a spot on the Canadian Olympic team, or the one that struggled in the 2nd half of the year? The answer could go a long way towards determining the result of this series.

3) D -Erik Karlsson -- While Karlsson has the skill to be an impact player in this series, he remains a rookie, and will likely see a lot of Evgeni Malkin. Can he handle last year's Conn Smythe Trophy winner defensively? A similar player for Pittsburgh, Alex Goligoski, struggled in last year's post-season -- his first.


PENGUINS' PLAYERS TO WATCH

1) C- Evgeni Malkin -- With Crosby getting all the attention from Volchenkov and Philips, the door will be open for Geno to have a real good series and put a below-average regular season (for him) in the past.

2) RW - Alexei Ponikarovsky -- Poni hasn't had a lot of time to get acclimated to playing with Malkin thanks to #71 missing a lot of action down the stretch with injuries, and the former Toronto Maple Leaf has put up only 2 goals since joining Pittsburgh at the trade deadline. How he performs in the post-season could go a long way towards determining whether the Penguins offer the unrestricted free agent a contract this summer. I'm anxious to see how hard he battles out there in the grind of the post-season.

3) D - Jordan Leopold -- The playoffs are the time of year when you get contributions from under-the-radar players, and that's not just limited to forwards. When blueliners give you unexpected offense in the post-season, it goes a long way towards a team's success. Lately, Leopold has shown signs of shedding that label and being someone the Penguins can count on regularly when the stakes go up.


HOW THE SENATORS CAN WIN

Have Speeza at least match the production of Sidney Crosby, get Elliot to stand on his head for a few games, and win the special teams battle.


HOW THE PENGUINS CAN WIN

Have Malkin explode offensively, get timely scoring from its support players, and be smart with the puck in their own zone.


PREDICTION

I don't think this series will be short. Many observers feel the Penguins are due to fall since they've played a lot of hockey the last few years and may be mentally or physically fatigued. When asked whether that was the case, Crosby said simply, "no way." While I think Ottawa is a solid opponent for Pittsburgh and will force them to be sharp or go home early, I don't believe the Senators have the overall depth or goaltending in a 7-game series to defeat a Pittsburgh team that is now back in its post-season element.

PENGUINS IN SIX.