BING, BANG, BOING: Game 1 Bounces To Red Wings, 3-1

Some will tell you that a team works hard to create its own luck.

Others will say that luck, in and of itself, is pure happenstance.

Personally, I think it's probably a mix of both, depending on the situation.

This morning, after the Detroit Red Wings' 3-1 victory in game 1 of the 2009 Stanley Cup Final over the Pittsburgh Penguins, I fall strictly into the latter category.

Yes, the puck luck was surely with the hometown squad last night, and the Red Wings surely had no shame in parlaying that to a 1-0 series lead.

Not that the Penguins' are going to be too down about it. In fact, the general consensus of most observers to last night's game -- this one included -- is that the Penguins were right there with the Red Wings last night. They probably even outplayed Detroit for a majority of the game. They actually outshot the Red Wings, 32-30 (which almost never happens) and forced Detroit into more giveaways.

But they were burned by the bouncing biscuit in this one for sure.

To wit, just keep reading:

The Red Wings tallied the opening goal 13 minutes into the game on a harmless shot from the point by Detroit defenseman Brad Stuart that skittered wide of Pens' netminder Marc-Andre Fleury, only to come off the back boards and bounce off Fleury's backside and into the cage.

Taking a pause from the bad luck continuum here -- Pittsburgh replied with about 90 seconds to go in the first frame on a turnover when Evgeni Malkin stole the puck inside the Detroit blueline, then ripped a shot on Red Wings' goaltender Chris Osgood that he failed to control. LW Ruslan Fedotenko barreled through the slot, beat Osgood to the loose puck, and backhanded it into an empty cage to tie the score.

In the second period, the Penguins carried the play, and had a real chance to take over the game.

Pittsburgh had 2 consecutive power plays, but were ineffective on both. Detroit did a good job of standing up at their blue line and not allowing the Penguins to set up. Pittsburgh should have adjusted better and started dumping the puck in but they continually tried to get cute with setting up in the zone. They failed miserably at that and, when they ultimately were able to get situated, their man-advantage time in each instance was just about over.

I think the Penguins registered just one shot combined on both of those power plays. That has to change in game 2 against what is really a terrible Detroit penalty kill. Last night, the Pens' made the Red Wings look like they were killing off penalties with 8 guys on the ice.

Despite their failings on the PP, the Penguins had several other strong scoring chances in the 2nd period, including ones by LW Chris Kunitz, RW Bill Guerin and even RW Miro Satan, who deked Osgood into the ground after taking a pass right in front and quickly changing direction on the Detroit goaltender, only to have the puck roll right off his stick before he could shoot on the backhand.

However, none of those chances were as notable as the one missed by Malkin when Detroit defenseman Niklas Kronall turned the puck over at the Pens' blueline and gave #71 a breakaway for 120 feet that had the entire Joe Louis Arena on its feet.

Malkin, never known as the greatest breakaway player, broke in with speed and tried a wrist shot high to Osgood's glove side, but Osgood got a piece of it to make the biggest stop of the game for his team.

If you ask me, if Geno was going to shoot that puck, he should have gone stick side. As it was, Malkin didn't test Osgood a great deal on that one. He didn't even really deke. It's hard to be too critical of Malkin, because he was dangerous at times last night, but as the top scorer in the league in a 1-1 game in the Stanley Cup Finals, you have to bury those chances. Especially against a team like the Red Wings that isn't going to give you very many.

Okay. Back to the board game here. The Penguins were feeling Deja Vu back to the Red Wings' first goal for much of the rest of the game, starting later in the 2nd period when Detroit RW Johan Franzen took the rebound of a shot off the lively back boards and got another fortunate bounce when the puck went off the lifted leg of Fleury -- who had dove towards the post on his stomach in a desperate attempt to close off that shooting lane for 'The Mule' -- and into the goal.

The third period was more of the same.

Rookie Justin Abdelkader -- playing in only his 12th career NHL game, regular season or playoffs, and only in the lineup beacuse of injuries to Red Wings MVP candidate Pavel Datsyuk and C Kris Draper, both of whom missed the contest -- scored about 3 minutes into the period when an initial shot he took bounced off Fleury and up in the air right back to him. Fleury didn't know where the puck went and neither did Pens' center Jordan Staal, who was trying to check Abdelkader. While Staal let up for a second or two while not knowing where the biscuit was, the Red Wings' rookie saw the puck the whole way. He quickly gloved the puck out of the air and put it down to Fleury's left before shooting it back towards the goal before the biscuit ever settled down on the ice.

The puck went top corner past Fleury's blocker just as he realized where it was and Detroit then had a 3-1 lead.

Not to be simply victimized by bad bounces in their own zone, the Pens' suffered the ignomity in the offensive end too.

Later in the 3rd period, with the Pens' looking to get back within one goal, Sidney Crosby picked up a rebound off Osgood to the side of the net and tried to chip it back in front or off the netminder. It hit the blocker of the diving Osgood, then the post, then landed right on his back between the top of the "3" and the "0" on the back of his jersey.

Several Red Wings swarmed the play, including Henrik Zetterberg. Zetterberg, who had been engaged in a combative physical battle on and off the puck with Crosby all night, arrived first and reached for the puck. As far as I could tell, he briefly covered it with his hand while Osgood was still on his back in the crease. That happened for just a second or a second and a half before it looked like he was then trying to push the puck off Osgood's back, away from the net, and perhaps underneath him.

No penalty was called on the play and Crosby questioned Referree Paul Devorski about why a penalty shot wasn't called.

Fair question, since the puck was in the crease and covered up by a glove -- regardless of whether it was on Osgood's back or not -- but the truth of the matter is that the play was a close call, and Devorski didn't have a good look at what happened because he was skating around the net from the direction where Zetterberg came from, so he couldn't even really tell what was happening at the time.

It was a tough break for Pittsburgh, but then again -- so was each goal the Red Wings scored. It just wasn't the Penguins' night.

After the contest, the Penguins were disappointed at the bad breaks they had, but appeared confident with how they matched up against Detroit. Their veteran leaders, including Brooks Orpik and Bill Guerin, both have the team ready and anxious to get right back out there and take another crack at things in game 2, which -- as most know -- comes quickly: tonight at 8 PM.

Here are some interesting pieces to read about game 1:

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/09151/974069-87.stm

http://www.freep.com/article/20090531/COL01/90531011/1053/SPORTS05/Game+1+was+dandy++but+tonight+s+Game+2+just+as+pivotal+

http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Hockey/NHL/Playoffs/2009/05/31/9627456-cp.html

So how do the Penguins split this series and go back to Pittsburgh tied at 1 with home-ice advantage in what would then be a best of 5??

First of all, as I mentioned earlier, the Penguins will need to be better on the power play in the next contest. They also will need to capitalize on their chances when they get them. Again, good scoring opportunities are going to be more scarce against the Red Wings and you can't miss them when you're going up against an outfit as good as they are. Everything can make a difference.

Another thing Pittsburgh needs to do better in game 2 tonight is work the circle better. They were miserable on faceoffs in game 1. Detroit won 71% of the draws, going 39-16 against the Penguins.

The worst part is that Detroit's performance on draws wasn't at the hands of a few of their better face-off guys -- Draper and Datsyuk -- but the likes of Zetterberg and Darren Helm. Crosby and Staal, in particular, both were schooled last night.

I didn't know Helm was that good on the draw. He's a great energy guy with speed and some skill who has a good future with Detroit, but little did I know he had that kind of talent in the circle.

After the Penguins performance on face-offs in game 1, I can't help but wonder if coach Dan Bylsma might consider inserting Mike Zigomanis into the lineup for game 2? It could be viewed as a drastic change for just one aspect of the game, but make no mistake -- the Penguins were completely and totally dominated in the circle. In a game where puck possession is so important and you have 2 teams who pride their attack on that, it can't be understated. I don't know that I would do it for sure, but if I were Blysma, I'd have to really consider it.

Zigomanis hasn't played in about 6 months following shoulder surgery, but he was cleared for contact weeks ago and has been practicing with the team regularly. He's just being a healthy scratch at this point, like Eric Godard and Pascal Dupuis. And aside from getting Zigomanis in the lineup to help on draws, it might be a good move in the back-to-back situation to keep Crosby, Malkin and Staal -- who are all getting extra shifts up front because of Bylsma dressing 7 "D" again -- a little fresher. Sure, getting #'s 87 and 71 on the ice more makes it harder on the Red Wings, but if we gas those 2 so much that they are ineffective, we will lose this series. They didn't have a big impact in last night's game and you can imagine how much of a difference it would have made in it if they did. It was a close contest. It doesn't take much and every decision can tip the scales.

I think the last thing the Penguins need in game 2 is a little better -- and more controlled -- play from their netminder.

Osgood outplayed Fleury in game 1, and as an initial matter, that can't continue to happen if the Penguins are going to win the series.

Now, it's not that Fleury played badly. But he doest need to be a little more aware of the puck, the bounces, and the back boards. To help in that area, I think he needs to be a little more under control positionally. In game 1, he was active and aggressive and while those are good traits for him generally, he can't take himself even the slightest bit out of the play -- either at the top of the crease, or even moving side to side.

On the first Detroit goal, his whole right leg was extended past the post on what I already described was a pretty harmless shot by Stuart. That's what allowed the puck to carom off him and in. If he's just to the post on that one and not extended past it, that goal doesn't happen.

Same on the 2nd Red Wings' goal by Franzen. Fleury was out a little far on that one and when "The Mule" quickly got to a rebound off the wall, he had to dive back to shut off Franzen from scoring. That worked, but he was prone and not able to avoid having the puck bounce off him and into the net.

So with that, the Penguins have their blueprint for game 2. And let's be frank -- the Penguins now really need game 2. They do not want to be in the same position against Detroit than they were against Washington after 2 games, down 2-0. They overcame that hurdle against Washington and, while I won't say it would be impossible to do it again against Detroit, that's a chore they really want to look to avoid if they can.

The Penguins seem confident enough to get right back out there tonight, and they should be. In the battle of who was going to dictate the play to the opponent more last night -- maybe the biggest story of the series given how similarly these two squads play -- the Penguins probably came out on top. If they do more of that tonight, they stand to get a better result.

Especially if its their turn with the puck luck.

Recap tomorrow.

Let's Go Pens!

Stanley Cup Finals Breakdown/Analysis: Penguins & Red Wings Rematch

It's Stanley Cup or Bust for the Boys of Winter beginning with game 1 against the Red Wings in Detroit Saturday night (8 PM EST).

There certainly won't be a lack of motivation for either team -- Marion Hossa storyline or not. After all, the chance to have your name engraved on that silver thing is pretty powerful incentive for anyone who played hockey as a kid and dreamed of scoring the winning goal in game 7 of the Cup Final.

For the 2nd straight year, it's there for the taking for the Pittsburgh Penguins.

And, for the 2nd season in a row, the Detroit Red Wings stand in the way.

By this point, a lot of those in the news media, message boards and blogosphere have weighed in on who will win the series and why.

Now it's my turn.

My regular readers know how I typically anlayze each Pittsburgh series, and this one will hardly be different. For those who don't typically read, I'll break down the matchup position by position, identify 5 players for each team to watch, talk about how each team can win the series, then make a prediction.


FORWARDS

While the cast of characters remains largely the same for both of these two squads when compared to last season's Stanley Cup Final, the analysis isn't necessarily the same.

For instance, the Penguins 2 big guns, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, are completely dominating the post-season. They already have more points than they did last year, at 1-2 in the playoff scoring race with 28 each, and Crosby remains within reach of setting the all-time record for most goals in a single playoff year. He has 14 goals thusfar. 19 is the record, co-held by former Philadelphia Flyers' winger Reggie Leach and former Edmonton Oiler RW and Wayne Gretzky sidekick, Jari Kurri. Crosby and Malkin are playing with an unmatched intensity, focus and drive, unlike last year when Crosby was a little banged up and Malkin was out of gas come the Final. Moreover, Crosby has turned into an unstoppable force around the net. The real issue for Detroit isn't whether they can stop these two wonderkids -- it's more a matter of whether they can contain them.

Like last year, the Penguins have a strong supporting cast, although not from the likes of Hossa, Ryan Malone or even Petr Sykora. Instead, Pittsburgh has filled those slots with Chris Kunitz, Bill Guerin, and Ruslan Fedotenko, and all have played well this playoff year. Guerin is having the best post-season of his career with 7 goals and 14 points. While Kunitz only has 1 goal, he has 12 points. Fedotenko has 6 big goals for Pittsburgh. Many of their other depth players have come up with big goals in the post-season, too, including Max Talbot and Tyler Kennedy. Add to that one of the best 3rd line centers in the league in Jordan Staal and it's obvious why the Penguins are one of the deepest teams overall -- and certainly the deepest down the middle -- of any in the National Hockey League.

That's why the Penguins lead the league in goals per game in the post-season, at 3.82, and really -- when you think about it -- that's an insane number of average goals per game in the post-season when everything is tighter, everyone plays tougher defense, etc. What the Penguins have accomplished consistently in their new aggressive system under coach Dan Bylsma is nothing short of amazing.

Detroit's offense certainly is no slouch either, scoring 3.69 goals per game. However, their 2 superstars, Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk aren't playing up the levels they reached in last year's postseason. While Zetterberg has still produced with 9 goals and 18 points, 10 other Red Wing players have scored more than Hart Trophy candidate Datsyuk, who has only 1 goal -- which came in round 1 against the Columbus Blue Jackets -- and 6 assists. Now, Datsyuk has missed several games with injuries and is currently doubtful for game one with a foot problem.

Where the Red Wings have made up for that is with their superior depth. Johan Franzen has 10 goals and 19 points. Dan Cleary has 8 goals and 14 points. Valtteri Filppula has 14 points, but only 1 goal. All of those guys have outscored Hossa, who has only 6 goals and 12 assists in the playoffs thusfar. Throw in the usual gritty, clutch performances from crease-crasher Tomas Holmstrom, role players Mikael Samuelsoon and Jiri Hudler, and veteran Kris Draper (when he has played), and you see why Detroit remains among the most dangerous teams in the game.

The biggest difficulty the Penguins may have is dealing with the fact that Detroit can put a good power forward on each line -- Homstrom, Franzen and Cleary. Containing the "net presence" of all of these guys could be one of the biggest factors in the series.

The Penguins have the advantage on the high-end (although it's close), while the Red Wings have the depth advantage (while, again, it's close).

ADVANTAGE: EVEN


DEFENSEMEN

The Red Wings boast one of the greatest group of defensemen in the NHL, led by their Captain, all-world two-way defender Nicklas Lidstrom. While he's expected to suit up for game 1 after missing games 4 and 5 of the Detroit series against the Chicago Blackhawks, Lidstrom is a little banged up right now. He is said to have a lower body injury, and it could be a groin problem which might limit his mobility.

Lidstrom is typically paired with the smart and offensively-savvy Brian Rafalski. After those 2, the Red Wings throw out their physical pair in Brad Stuart and Niklas Kronwall. Both have 1 goal and 7 points and are among the league leaders in seismic post-season hits. Just ask 'Hawks RW Martin Havlat, who Kronwall briefly knocked unconscious in game 3.

After those guys, I think there is a bit of a drop off, with big, smooth rookie Jonathan Ericsson and 2-way defenseman Brett Lebda.

On the Penguins side, they've gotten big contributions from almost all of their defensemen this post-season so far. Sergei Gonchar leads the way for the Pens' offensively, with 12 points in the playoffs -- and that's with him probably still recovering a little bit from the knee-on-knee hit he took from Washington Capitals' LW Alexander Ovechkin in game 4 of their 2nd round series with Pittsburgh. Gonchar also is a smart defender in his own end who is more effective defensively than most give him credit for.

Kris Letang also brings a fair bit of offense, with 9 points so far. Letang, was scoreless in Pittsburgh's Eastern Conference Finals with Carolina, however -- no easy feat considering how many goals the Penguins scored in that series.

Two-way defenseman and expert shot blocker Mark Eaton has more goals than either Gonchar or Letang. He has 4 and has shown the fair offensive talent he has when given the opportunity to jump in the play. That's something he has had more of a chance to do under Blysma.

Brooks Oprik bring the physical presence the Penguins need, and he'll do it without getting caught out of position very much -- something essential against a team as good as Detroit. Meanwhile, defensive defensemen Hal Gil land Rob Scuderi continue to do a fabulous job being matched up against -- and shutting down -- the opponent's top players. Look for Blysma to match them up against the Zetterberg and Franzen like whenever possible.

Philippe Boucher may or may not play in this series. He's been the Pens' 7th defensemen, and they have gone with 7 "D" since Gonchar went out. Bylsma isn't a fan of that approach, but he can't argue with the results, and he may very well stay with it in the Finals -- at least for one of the opening 2 back-t0-back games, when energy will be at a premium

ADVANTAGE: Detroit


GOALTENDING

I can't stand Chris Osgood.

There. I said it.

I just don't believe in him. I don't care that he's having a pretty good post-season. He's 12-4 with a 2.06 GAA and .924 SV %. Those are good numbers, sure. But remember, this is the guy who had one of his worst regular seasons this past year. His coach, Mike Babcock, even sent him "away" from the team so he could "clear his head"mid-season. That's not a guy that would make me feel completely comfortable, which is one of the reasons why I think he can be had. The key is getting through the Red Wings defense and defensive system. If you do that, you can get to him.

Marc-Andre Fleury had a fairly good series against the Hurricanes in round 3. He gave up some questionable rebounds in game 2, but was strong in game 1 and game 4. He also only let up 2 goals against in game 3. He leads the playoffs in wins with 13, and has a 2.62 GAA and .906 SV %. Many people think Fleury is better this year than last. I'm not so sure that's the case because, while Fleury still has the occasional moment with a rebound or even playing the puck (although he was excellent at that in the Carolina series), he's been pretty solid for 3 years now. He just finished badly outplaying a guy who everyone felt was the best goaltender left alive in the playoffs, and a guy more widely regarded as a more likely candidate for the 2010 Olympic Team -- Cam Ward. Fleury's biggest thing is to not give up any freebies against Detroit, and continue to do what he has all post-season long -- make the big save when necessary.

One of the biggest factors for me here is the ability to steal games. Everyone knows Fleury can do that. But for all the time I've seen Osgood play, I've rarely seen him "steal" a game.

ADVANTAGE: Pittsburgh.


POWER PLAY

Detroit is clicking at a very strong 25.7 % on the PP in the post-season so far, good for 3rd in the league, and with all the talent they have, it's no surprise. The key to the Red Wings power play is the havoc that Holmstrom, Franzen and Cleary can cause in front. They are a nightmare for penalty killing units to match up against because of that alone. And that allows Detroit to keep it simple on the man-advantage, despite all their talent. What do they do? Shoot pucks to the net.

The Penguins aren't ranked as highly on the man-advantage, sitting 7th at 19.7%, but they have been pretty good lately, clicking at a percentage between 25% adn 30% over the last 8 games. They are doing a lot of what the Red Wings do -- get pucks to the net. Coincidentally, the Penguins have also gone to the more 'comfortable' set up for them on the PP during that same period, with Letang at the left point, and Malkin or Crosby interchanging positions on the near boards or down low, with Guerin and his shot in front.

ADVANTAGE: Detroit


PENALTY KILLING

Detroit's penalty killing could be described as somewhere between a month old bologna sandwich and something a lot less tasty.

And that would be charitable.

The Red Wings PK is at 73.7 and, really, this has been a problem for them all season. They are weak in this area and the Penguins need to exploit it. Interestingly, all the "experts" and "pundits" who have picked Detroit to win this series have conveniently neglected to mention how awful the 'Wings PK really is.

The Penguins, meanwhile, are at 83.7 % when down a man. And while that number is in the middle of the playoff pack, the Penguins have done much better in this area for the last 3/4 months. Scuderi and Gill really do a great job for Pittsburgh when down a man.

Pittsburgh only allowed one power play goal to the Hurricanes in the last series, and one of the biggest reasons why was that they took much fewer penalties. They were able to skate well and not be in position to take a penalty. They'll need to do more of that if they want to beat the Red Wings.

ADVANTAGE: Penguins.


COACHING

Dan Bylsma is a Mike Babcock protege. They have a lot of the same approaches to coaching and, while Babcock is a little more abrasive (for example, his comment earlier today about how when he sees highlights of last season's Cup Final, he thinks the Penguins must have won because all he sees is Sidney Crosby), they both have their teams play an aggressive, puck-possession, attacking style of game designed to generate a lot of shots and scroing chances. Whoever is able to dictate that play to the other team in this series will have the upper hand.

Bylsma has done a great job in his first 3 playoff series', continuing to make good decisions (like staying with 7 "D", for example), and not over-coaching. While this is his first Stanley Cup Final, there's no reason to think he's going to do anything different. He's a big believer in his sytem and I doubt anything will change that.

For now, this category is settled with the fact that Babcock has a cup, while Bylsma does not (yet).

ADVANTAGE: Detroit.


INTNANGIBLES

The Red Wings have home-ice advantage in this series, but I actually don't view that as a big advantage to them. It was last year when the Penguins were wide-eyed in games 1 and 2 in Detroit, but that won't happen this season. Moreover, the Penguins have already won 6 road playoff games, and have clinched each of their 3 series' on the road, demonstrating the mental toughness necessary to win in a hostile enviornment in the post-season. And don't underestimate the 3OT win in game 5 of the Final in Detroit last year.

On the injury front, the Penguins are a pretty healthy bunch, while several Red Wings are dealing with moderate to nagging injuries that could limit them or, in some cases, already is.

As I mentioned, Detroit expects to have Lidstrom back for game 1. Datsyuk is less likely. Kris Draper probably won't return until next week. All 3 practiced with the team today, however. Jonathan Ericsson, who had an emergency appedectomy 2 days ago, didn't practice today, but should be ready for game 1.

On top of all those injuries, the Red Wings have to deal with the fact that the first two games of the series, as previously mentioned, are on back-to-back nights. The first 4 games of the series will be played in 6 nights. This isn't rocket science here -- obviously -- but one would think that if those factors were to give either team an advantage, Pittsburgh would have it.

Which team will get something from "The Hossa Factor" also could mean a lot. Will Hossa want to prove he made the right decision to bolt to the rival Red Wings, or will the Penguins do more to shove it up Hossa's you-know-what? Either way, the teams will be motivated to win, but to the extent this could have any impact on the series -- even if slight -- it could be meaningful in a close matchup.

ADVANTAGE: Pittsburgh.


PLAYERS TO WATCH

DETROIT:

1) Chris Osgood, G -- Osgood has won 3 Stanley Cups as a career, but he always has his detractors (including me -- see above). If he wins another Cup, will he finally convince everyone else he is one of the better goalies to play the game? He may not put me in that camp, but that doesn't mean he isn't perhaps the biggest key to this series for the Red Wings, because there's no question the Penguins are going to throw more rubber at him. Back in October, the Penguins turned up the volume on him in the 3rd period and he folded quicker than a cheap lawn chair in a light breeze.

2) Niklas Kronwall, D -- Kronwall is on this list because he can change the course and momentum of a series with one hit. If he were to lay out either Crosby or Malkin for the series, the dynamic of everything will change entirely. Those guys -- and every other Penguin for that matter -- needs to be sure they have their heads up at all times when Kronwall is on the ice.

3) Johan Franzen, LW -- This guy is a beast in front of the opposition net and, while he may not deflect pucks the same way as Holmstrom does, he takes up just as much room and has much better hands for any rebounds just sitting around. The Penguins will have their hands full with him phsyically.

4) Marion Hossa, RW -- what else needs to be said about this guy? He made his choice. Now, the Penguins have the chance to prove he made the wrong one. Can you see the storylines now? Penguins win. Hossa has a bad series -- finishing with less than half of the points he had in last year's postseason. I doubt Hossa will go in the tank beacuse he's a good player with a lot of pride who's hard to handle, but boy would it be nice to see him fall.

5) Nicklas Lidstrom, D -- Lidstrom's health means everything to Detroit in this series beacuse he's likely to be matched against Crosby, and if he can't stick with Sid in his own zone or around the net, it's going to cause trouble for the Red Wings. For this reason, Lidstrom's health and movement around the ice definitely deserve watching.

PENGUINS:

1) Sidney Crosby, C -- Crosby has been playing the best hockey of his career, even if he had "only" 7 points in 4 games against Carolina. He's the Captain of this hockey club and seems inspired to end his season with a victory in his last game. He's going to be much more for the Red Wings to handle in this Cup Final than he was last season.

2) Evgeni Malkin, C -- Like Crosby, Malkin is playing some of the best hockey of his career. Unlike last year in the championship round, Malkin looks roaring and ready to go this time around. He can take over a game with his puck-attack mentality. When that happens, you have goals like his masterpiece HT marker in the 3rd period of game 2 against the Hurricanes.

3) Marc-Andre Fleury, G -- Fleury will be tested in this series with a lot of shots and must be up to the task if the Penguins are going to win their first Stanley Cup since 1992. More importantly, he needs to make the timely save and not let up any easy rebounds or rebound goals. You can't give Detroit an inch and need every advantage you can get over them.

4) Max Talbot, LW -- This guy lives for the spotlight. When you don't think he's going to come through for you, he does, whether it's the goal in 3 OT's in game 5 of the Cup Final last year, or the big goal he scored against Carolina in the last round. He's the type of player -- like Samuelsson for Detroit -- who can make a big difference with a timely goal or hit.

5) Rob Scuderi and Hal Gill, D -- These guys deserve all the credit they get and, as mentioned above, will probably see a lot of #'s 40 and 93. If they do even a token job of settling these 2 down, the Pens' chances of winning raise dramatically.


HOW THE RED WINGS CAN WIN

Cause trouble in front of Fleury, get healthy -- quickly -- then skate with the Penguins so they limit their own turnovers, hope for a big critic-answering performance from Hossa, and pray that Crosby and Malkin slow down, then.


HOW THE PENGUINS CAN WIN

Continue to have #'s 87 and 71 "Act As If" (Boiler Room movie reference), get the big stops from Fleury, limit their turnover and when they do, don't give the Red Wings any freebees.


Before my prediction, here are some other articles and predictions:

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/2009/05/28/kelley_column/

http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Hockey/NHL/Playoffs/2009/05/28/9604381-ap.html

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=424108&navid=DLNHLHome

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=280215

http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Hockey/NHL/Playoffs/Pittsburgh/2009/05/29/9610741-sun.html


MY PREDICTION

This is the Penguins' year. They are hungry, skilled and systemic. It won't be easy, but I believe that Pittsburgh will have enough to defeat the game defending champions and have Gart Bettman award that cup to Captain Crosby after a hard-fought 7 games, returning the Cup to The 'Burgh for the first time since 1992.

Recap of game 1 Sunday.

Let's Go Pens!

THE SEQUEL: Pens v. Wings For The Cup, Part II

It's only fitting, of course.

After Detroit's overtime victory over the Chicago Blackhawks in game 5 of the Western Conference Final last night, the Penguins now have their chance.

To avenge last year's loss to the Red Wings in the Cup Final.

To stick it up the you-know-what of the player who jumped ship to the team that beat Pittsburgh last year because he felt they had a better chance of winning again than the hometown squad.

To bring home Lord Stanley for the 3rd time in this team's glorious history.

That's right, folks.

It's Penguins/Red Wings, Part Deux.

Games 1 and 2 are Saturday, May 30 and Sunday May 31 in Detroit, respectively. Game 3 is in Pittsbugh on Tuesday, June 2, as is game 4 on Thursday, June 4. If necessary, game 5 will be in Detroit on Saturday, June 6. Also if necessary, game 6 will be in Pittsburgh on Tuesday, June 9. A game for all the marbles, if needed, would be in Detroit on Friday, June 12.

All games are to start at 8 PM EST, with games 1 and 2 (and 5, 6 and 7, if necessary) being televised by NBC. Games 3 and 4 are on Versus.

There really couldn't be a better final for the league (again). The hockey is likely to be just as good as last year, if not better -- and with better storylines.

These two squads are the last 2 cup champions to repeat -- Detroit in '97 and '98, and the Penguins in '91 and '92 -- and this the 10th time 2 teams have gone against each other for the Stanley Cup in back-t0-back years in the league's history, and the first time it's happened in a quarter-century.

Of course, that's the comparison everyone wants to make.

In 1983, the upstart Edmonton Oilers with a young Wayne Gretzky and young Mark Messier were the offensive stars of the league. They romped over the opposition in the first 3 rounds of the playoffs only to face the team who had won 3 straight titles, the juggernaut New York Islanders, in the Final.

After looking starry-eyed in the first few games, the Islanders put the Oilers in their proper place and swept Edmonton for their 4th straight Cup.

The next season, Edmonton and New York made it to the final again, but the script was flipped, as the Oilers ended the Islander dynasty and won what would be their first of 5 Stanley Cups in 7 seasons.

Last year, even in the 2008 Cup Final, many saw the similarities between the Penguins and Red Wings, and the Oilers and Islanders.

The result validated those comparisons, with the Penguins looking out of place in the first few games, before falling in 6 to Detroit.

With this storyline in full force again, will history prove true this year?

That alone makes this series interesting.

Marion Hossa makes it compelling.

I still remember vividly the scene in the Penguins locker room 2 days after the season ended last June in that game 6 loss to the Red Wings in the Final when Hossa spoke in the locker room about how great of a time he had in Pittsburgh, and that he would definitely consider returning. When he went on to say he would definitely accept less money to play with a contender, I thought the Penguins and GM Ray Shero had the inside track to sign him.

I thought, how is he going to turn down the chance to play with the best young center and player in the game for the next 5 seasons?

As it turned out, he did.

Ray Shero did everything he could do, offering Hossa a 5-year deal worth about 7 million dollars per season, only to have #18 spurn them and sign a basic one year deal with no long-term security with the team that just dispatched the Penguins in the final, the Red Wings.

That was the knockdown punch.

Then came the kick in the cajones while you're down.

After the signing, Hossa said it came down to Detroit and Pittsburgh but, in the end, he felt Detroit gave him a better chance of winning the cup.

Talk about venom?

Hossa was booed mercilessly when he returned to Mellon Arena to play a game for Detroit against the Penguins in February -- a game where he scored a goal and the Red Wings won, 3-0.

Don't expect him to be treated any kinder this time around.

The ironic part is that Hossa hasn't played nearly as well in the post-season this year as he did with our Boys of Winter last season. Hossa only has 6 goals and 12 points in the 2009 playoffs, after having near double that last year.

In fact, his replacement on Crosby's RW, Bill Guerin, has scored more, with 7 goals and 7 assists, and is playing some of his best hockey of the season.

There are a lot of other things worth noting in this series -- including the many injuries the Red Wings are dealing with right now -- but a lot of that will be discussed in the next few days. I hope to post my series breakdown here late tomorrow (Friday) night, but in the meantime, here's at least one preview worth reading.

I think you'll like what's at the end:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/playoffs/2009/news?columnist=burnside_scott&id=4211064

I can't wait for this showdown.

LET'S GO PENS!

CATEGORY 4: PENGUINS SWEEP PAST HURRICANES INTO STANLEY CUP FINALS FOR 2ND STRAIGHT SEASON

We Want The Cup.

An old chant for a new spring.

That's what Pittsburgh Penguins' fans everywhere will be saying a lot of the next several weeks after breaking out the brooms and sweeping the Carolina Hurricanes out of the Eastern Conference Final with a 4-1 game four victory last night at the RBC Center in Raleigh, NC.

With the win, the Penguins have advanced to the Stanley Cup Final for the second consecutive season, and the 4th time in their franchise's history. Ironically, the last time, they did it, they also did it in back to back years, in '91 and '92 -- both of which, of course, ended up with Cup victories. The Penguins now will play for the Silver Chalice against the winner of the Western Conference Final between the Detroit Red Wings and the Chicago Blackhawks -- a series which Detroit leads 3 games to 1, with game 5 tonight in Motown.

Realistically, the NHL is set up for its dream Cup Final 2 years in a row, as it's highly unlikely the Blackhawks will come back to take 3 straight games from North America's version of the Big Red Machine. In all likelihood, it's going to be Penguins v. Red Wings, Part Deux, folks. The only question is when.

If the Wings' finish off Chicago tonight, the NHL and NBC are probably going to move up the start of the Cup Final 6 days, and kick things off with back-to-back games in Detroit this Saturday, May 30 and Sunday, May 31.

If Detroit loses tonight and that series goes 6 games, the Final will start next Friday, June 5 in Detroit, with game 2 the next night, Saturday June 6, also at Joe Louis Arena.

The Penguins' are grooving on nearly all cylinders at this point, and while Carolina was a game opponent with their backs against the wall last night in game 4, Pittsburgh just proved to be too much for the Hurricanes.

Eric Staal got his first goal of the series to start things off for Carolina less than 2 minutes into the game, and that was the early start the 'Canes were looking for. They had their crowd into the game, and knew that they were 7-0 in the postseason when Staal scored a goal.

Unfortunately for them, it was the only puck they'd put past Pens' netminder Marc-Andre Fleury on the night.

Ruslan Fedotenko tied the score for the Penguins later in the first period, taking a slap pass from defenseman Philippe Boucher at the point and re-directing it behind Carolina netminder Cam Ward from a bad angle.

Then, before the end of the period, Pens' RW Max Talbot entered the Carolina zone 1-on-2 and took a wrist shot from about 50 feet that deflected up in the air towards Ward.

Ward tried to grab it with his glove but it flubbed off the top of his web and fluttered behind him into the net to give Pittsburgh a big 2-1 lead going into the 2nd period.

RW Bill Guerin made it 3-1 in the 2nd period when he made a nice play at the Pens' blueline to help chip the puck past Hurricanes' defenseman Anton Babchuk -- playing for the first time in this series -- to Sidney Crosby and then putting his head down and driving like a 21 year old straight into the Carolina end and to the far post.

Crosby, with the puck on the giving end of this 2-on-1, dished a perfect pass across the crease which Guerin made no mistake on.

It was Billy G's 7th goal of the post-season.

The Hurricanes put on some pressure in the 3rd, but couldn't crack Fleury, who finished with 30 saves and played well.

4th line LW Craig Adams sealed things with an empty netter to close out the scoring and send the Penguins to the Cup Final.

Here's a nice piece on last night's victory:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/playoffs/2009/news?columnist=burnside_scott&id=4208077

The Penguins simply overmatched a determined Carolina outfit in this series. Remember, a big question going into this series was whether the Hurricanes' defense could match up and hold back the Pittsburgh offense. On that score, the result was no contest.

Game. Set. Match.

Sure, the Penguins were led by #'s 87 and 71, but they got contributions from plenty of other players over the last 4 games. They are getting supplemental scoring from Ruslan Fedotenko and Guerin. Rob Scuderi and Hal Gill are making them especially hard to crack defensively. And Fleury had a better series than he did against the Capitals. He was especially strong in game 1 and last night again. It's good to see him get on track once more. He'll need to be on top of his game for the championship round.

A bit more on why the Penguins' advanced:

http://penguins.nhl.com/team/app?articleid=423919&page=NewsPage&service=page

A lot is already being made of what the Pens' Captain did with the Prince of Wales Trophy after the presentation from NHL VP Bill Daly last night.


In 2008, when the Pens' captured the Eastern Conference Crown, Crosby stuck with the general tradition of not touching the Wales crown.

This year, he touched it and invited his assistant captains, Evgeni Malkin and Sergei Gonchar, over to take a picture with it. Then, they skated off the ice with it.

When asked about that after the game, Crosby said that he was trying to switch things up from last year.



The truth is that how the Penguins' fare in the Cup Finals this season will have little to do with the Prince of Wales Trophy -- except, of course, if Pittsburgh is able to maintain the outstanding play the last month that allowed them to capture that crown.

The Penguins have now won 8 of their last 9 playoff games and, while failing to outshoot their opponent last night for the first time in 12 games, regularly dictate the pace to the opposition with their skating, skill and aggressiveness.

Pittsburgh chases down the puck with abandon, creates turnovers and then, more often than not, capitalizes on them. They averaged nearly 5 goals a game in the course of regularly abusing a former Stanley Cup and playoff MVP goaltender who many commonly regarded as the finest of the 4 netminders left in the post-season.

Uh, I don't think so.

With the way the Penguins have consistently put pressure on the opposition with their puck-possession and skill, it's easy to say they remind people of .....

That's right.

The Red Wings.

And while so much attention will be paid to the Marion Hossa storyline if the Penguins end up facing the Red Wings in the Stanley Cup Final, I think the most interesting subplot would be how the Penguins' have transformed their game so much and so well that they just about resemble Detroit.

But more on that in the coming days. For now, the Penguins can savor a very deserved Eastern Conference Crown.

In the meantime, it may be time for another chant, this one laced with revenge.

We Want Detroit.

Penguins Look To Sweep Into The Stanley Cup Finals Tonight

Just a short post today, as the Pittsburgh Penguins look to finish off the Carolina Hurricanes in game 4 of their Eastern Conference Final -- a series that the Penguins have thusfar controlled on the strength of their speed, skill and transition game, and the superstar play of their two leaders, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.

After 3 games of this series, those 2 have combined for 14 points. Malkin has 9 points in this series alone, and is the first player in 15 years to put together six straight multiple-point efforts.

Slowing them down right now is about as impossible as ignoring the fact that only 2 of 155 teams have ever overcome in a playoff series the 3-0 deficit the Hurricanes are currently facing.

How do you possibly deal with that elephant in the room?

The fact is, there's no real way to cope with it, other than to keep it from getting there in the first place, and Carolina has done a horribly ineffective job with that task.

I read an interesting piece in the Raleigh News Observer this morning about how the Penguins have put the Hurricanes in that position in this series. You can find it here:

http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/hurricanes/story/1542307.html

A lot of that article is on point, but I'm not sure Carolina is going to get very far trying to play more physical on Crosby or Malkin, as Tim Gleason or some other Carolina defensive pylon suggested they should.

For an idea about how that's likely to turn out, I reminisce fondly about a line from my favorite hockey movie of all time.

Youngblood.

As any hockey fan who has seen that movie probably remembers, when the veterans of the Hamilton Mustang Canadian Hockey League team are taking in from the stands a tryout for the club to add a player for the playoffs and watching a young, fast and skilled Rob Lowe make all the other tryout candidates look like they don't even belong on the ice, one of the players says to to Patrick Swayze, another player on the team, "Come on, somebody hit the hot dog. Why doesn't somebody hit him?"

Then, Swayze's line says it all:

"They can't catch him"

That's basically what we've seen in this series.

And now, headed into game 4, it's not a matter of "if", it's just a matter of "when". To wit:

http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/tudor/story/1542310.html

http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/playoffs/2009/news?columnist=burnside_scott&id=4205334

Of course, whether that "when" happens tonight depends in large part on the main things which have gotten this series so far -- the play of #'s 87 and 71 for Pittsburgh, and the play of goaltender Cam Ward and center Eric Staal for Carolina.

While a lot of other things have contributed to the first 3 games, those are the main factors.

If Ward and Staal come up big for the Hurricanes while Crosby and Malkin have an off night, Carolina might stretch this series at least one more game.

But face it. The writing is on the wall in this one.

You just can't get rid of that Elephant.

Recap tomorrow.

Dynamic Duo: Malkin, Crosby Throttle Hurricanes Again In Game Three, 6-2, Leaving Penguins Prepared To Sweep

Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.

After 3 games of the Eastern Conference Final between their Pittsburgh Penguins and the Carolina Hurricanes, they have combined for 8 goals.

The same number as the entire Hurricanes' team.

It's no surprise then, that in Saturday night's 6-2 Penguins' victory, Malkin and Crosby again led the way for Pittsburgh.

The two superstars combined for all three Pittsburgh goals in the first period, including two in the last minute of the frame, to erase an early 1-0 Carolina lead and put the Penguins in control for most of the rest of the game.

Ruslan Fedotekno, Craig Adams and Bill Guerin also got on the board for the Penguins, while goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury stopped 32 of 34 Carolina shots for the victory.

With the win, the Penguins hold a commanding 3-0 lead and are poised to sweep the Hurricanes on their way to a trip to the Stanley Cup Final for the second straight year.

Realistically, the Penguins already have their ticket punched. Of the 150 or so times a team has gone down 3-0 in a playoff series, only 2 have come back to win 4 straight and advance, and the last time it happened was 34 years ago when I was learning how to walk.

The Pens' are just too much for the Hurricanes right now. Carolina can't control their tempo or their talent. The Hurricanes don't just look a step slow. They look an entire lap behind.

Malkin got Pittsburgh off and running last night, once again torturing Canes' defenseman Tim Gleason, who failed to clear the puck from his own slot while killing a penalty, and instead shot the puck right into Malkin's body, who took it on the run, made 2 strides in alone on Carolina netminder Cam Ward and then beat him to the stick side to tie the score after the Hurricanes had an early 1-0 lead on a Matt Cullen goal.

Malkin's effort easily quieted the Raleigh crowd.

Little did they know that Pittsburgh was just getting started.

The Penguins' second goal was a thing of beauty, where every forward on the top line figured in on the goal -- and every one did something with the backhand.

First, LW Chris Kunitz got the puck up the wall to Guerin on the backhand, who then pushed the puck down the boards and around a Carolina defenseman. Then, Guerin got to the puck first and saucered a 40 foot backhander right on the tape of Crosby, who had sped by Hurricanes' blueliner Denis Seidenberg. Crosby got the puck 5 feet from the net in front of Ward and deflected it in off his backhand to give Pittsburgh a 2-1 lead with less than a minute left in the first.

Just seconds later, Carolina failed to clear the puck from it's own zone and allowed Malkin to get it in the near corner and walk unobstructed out in front of Ward before slipping the puck between his legs for the 3-1 lead.

Clearly, another goal Ward has to stop.

You know -- I feel compelled to interject something here.

Prior to the series, I heard Ward described as a 'shutdown' goaltender.

He's in operation shutdown, all right. But the problem for Ward is that he hasn't been shutting down the Penguins' attack. He's been shutting down his own team's chances of winning instead.

After a scoreless second period last night when, admittedly, Ward made several strong stops, including 3 on Max Talbot alone -- 1 on a breakaway, and 2 different ones when Talbot couldn't get a handle on passes from Malkin before Ward was able to scramble into the picture -- #30 for Carolina faltered at another key time.

About a quarter through the 3rd frame, Hurricanes' winger Sergei Samsonov scored on a rebound to bring Carolina back within one goal. But not long thereafter, Fedotenko took a drop, between-the-legs pass from Malkin and ripped a wrist shot over Ward's glove from 45 feet to restore Pittsburgh's two goal lead.

After that, Carolina lost the wind from its sails and, after Ward was pulled late in the frame, gave up an empty netter to Adams when Adams whacked the puck off the faceoff 120 feet down the ice and into the vacated cage.

Guerin closed out the scoring 30 or so seconds later on the backhand, finishing up another controlling performance by Pittsburgh.

While each of the games in this series so far has been close in the third period, that shouldn't mask the degree to which the Penguins have been on top of this series. They have been too quick for Carolina all over the ice, and they again tossed 40 pucks at Ward in game 3. Pittsburgh is just clicking on all cylinders right now.

As I mentioned, Ward has been clearly subpar in this series. Aside from Malkin's weak goal, Fedotenko's goal is one that has to be stopped in that situation. Ward is getting no help from his defense -- which always looks out of position or a step slow in making mistake after mistake -- but he's not doing his team any favors either. He has a GAA above 4.5 in this series and a save percentage of near .875.

Awful.

Eric Staal, the Canes' only true scoring weapon, again failed to light the lamp in game 3. He's come up empty altogether in this series, as have several other key Carolina forwards, including Erik Cole and 77-point regular season scorer Ray Whitney. The Pens' #11 is doing a good job on his brother, but that's still no exucse for big brother's total lack of production after 3 games of this series, nor is it an excuse for the goose-eggs put up by his usual linemates throughout the series so far.

Meanwhile, I can't say much else about how badly Malkin and Crosby are burning Carolina at every turn. They just want it more and are unstoppable right now.

At this point, it's hard not to expect more of the same in game 4.

The Penguins' appear to have one single, unitary focus ... getting back to the Finals and avenging last year's loss to their likely opponent again this season, the hated Detroit Red Wings, who are currently up 3 games to 1 in their Western Conference Final against the Chicago Blackhawks. Pittsburgh has shown a decent killer instinct when having the chance to eliminate an opponent in recent seasons, and with the balloon in Carolina looking like it has burst -- especially if the looks on all the faces of the Carolina players after game 3 are any indication -- even the presence of former Pittsburgh Steeler coach Bill Cowher probably won't be enough to help them avoid the end of their season in the next game.

I'll set the table for the possible sweep Tuesday morning. In the meantime, here's some great reading:

http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/hurricanes/story/1540515.html

http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/tudor/story/1540524.html

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/sports/s_626654.html

Let's Go Pens.

Leadership Carosel: Penguins Promote Rierden; Lose Assistant GM Fletcher

While off-the-ice news has taken secondary stage this week, what with the Penguins being in the middle of the Eastern Conference Finals and all, there were 2 important developments on the coaching front in the Pittsburgh organization this week.

First, the Penguins made Todd Rierden their permanent head coach of the Wilkes-Barre Scranton Penguins. Rierden, a first-year assistant under then Baby Penguins' head coach Dan Bylsma most of the year, was made interim head coach when Bylsma hopped to the big club in February.

After leading the team to a 14-9-4 record in the regular season and the second round of the playoffs, where the Baby Pens' fell in 7 games to the Hershey Bears, Rierden was rewarded with a multi-year contract to be the permanent head coach of the club.

Meanwhile, the news was made formal yesterday that the Minnesota Wild have signed Pens' Assistant GM Chuck Fletcher to a 5-year contract as their General Manager, replacing former Wild GM Doug Riesbrough.

Fletcher went through multiple interviews with the Wild and was long said to be one of the favorites for the Minnesota GM position.

Fletcher, who managed the Baby Penguins' farm team, negotiated contracts, and otherwise assisted GM Ray Shero, has 16 years of experience in those various capacities, not only with Pittsburgh, of course, but also with Anaheim and Florida. He was highly regarded around the league as an up-and-coming GM and was a key part of the success the Penguins' organization has had the last several years under Shero's watch. He will be missed, but it is a testament to Shero's ability to bring good talent on board.

It's a bit early to get a good read on who Shero may hire to replace Fletcher, but he may look within the organization at Jason Botterill, who has helped Shero with cap issues and some player development.

Certainly, finding a good replacement for Fletcher won't be easy. But it's almost certain to be an important priority for Shero this off-season.

Penguins Ride Geno's HT to Storm Hurricanes, 7-4; Take 2-0 Series Lead

Going into last night's game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Pittsburgh Penguins, the Carolina Hurricanes were buoyed, no pun intended, by the way they played in game 1.

They felt that if they were able to produce a bit more offensively, get an expected better performance from goaltender Cam Ward, and do as good a job as they did in game 1 against Pens' stars Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby, they'd continue their trend of winning game 2 after losing game 1 -- as they have done in their last 5 playoff series' -- and get right back into this one.

Uh, no.

Carolina produced more offensively all right, thanks to a somewhat pourous effort by Pittsburgh netminder Marc-Andre Fleury and the Penguins' defense around the net.

But Ward was worse in game 2 than he was in game 1, and the dynamic duo of Crosby and Malkin rolled all over Carolina to the tune of a 7-4 Penguins' victory.

Geno led the way for the Penguins, finishing his first career playoff hat trick with a signature goal in the third period and adding an assist, while Crosby also had a goal and an assist for the unstoppable Pittsburgh offense.

Crosby started the race last night by tying an NHL record with his 6th game-opening goal of the postseason 2 minutes in, taking a nice pass from LW Chris Kunitz and rapping it by Ward to give Pittsburgh a 1-0 lead.

While Carolina did what it does best and come right back with a tying goal by Chad Larose 1 minute later, Malkin scored his first goal of the night about halfway through the first frame, again rapping a rebound by Ward from close range after coming right off the bench and steaming into the Hurricanes' zone right to the net.

The Carolina comeback pattern repeated when Jussi Jokinen scored his 4th of the playoffs 30 seconds later after Fleury carelessly left a loose puck lying in front of him, then took a 3-2 lead on a weak knuckleball shot from the point by Hurricanes' defenseman Dennis Seidenberg goal after a bad giveaway by defenseman Kris Letang.

Fleury would surely like to have that one back.

That lead held up for the Canes into the intermission, but the Penguins really started to turn things on in the second period.

Max Talbot got the tying marker about 3 and 1/2 minutes in, taking a nice chip pass from Malkin off the wall and steaming in the Carolina zone while the Hurricanes were caught in a line change but scrambling to try and cut him off at the pass.

To no avail.

Talbot skated in, calmly sized up Ward and buried a half-slapper past him from about 25 feet half way up on the short side to tie the score.

Ward clearly didn't play Talbot's shot that well, as he went down early and also was a bit out of position.

As the Penguins would go on to outshoot Carolina 16-6 in the 2nd period, all of a sudden a big hole in the ice in the Carolina end appeared.

Thanks to the piano that fell off the back of Kunitz, that is, when Kunitz spun out of the near boards towards the left circle and ripped a wrister by Ward short side high for his first goal in his last 20 or so games, and first in more than 30 playoff contests, with about 7 seconds left in the period to cascade the momentum to Pittsburgh headed into the intermission.

Kunitz had a great chance in a prime scoring area and, finally, didn't make a mistake. Ward looked like he was not on his angle well, but Kunitz still made a nice shot. It was great to see him finally get off the snide.

#14 also added 2 assists for the Penguins on the night, including the one on Crosby's goal, as I already mentioned.

True to form, the Hurricanes came back again, 2 and 1/2 minutes into the third period, and tied the score on a top-shelf wrister from 4th line winger Patrick Eaves from about 20 feet.

Then, it was the Geno show.

First, Malkin restored the Pens' lead a 5-4 a few minutes later, again whacking one -- this time, his own rebound -- by Ward from close range.

Then, minutes later, there was a faceoff in the Carolina end, and the Penguins called for their set play called simply, "The Geno".

Malkin pushed the puck past Hurricanes' center Matt Cullen off the draw, quickly darted around him and retrieved the puck in the corner before Seidenberg could get it. Malkin then sped behind the net with Seidenberg chasing and made it look like he was going to try and get off a forehand shot from about 10 feet to Ward's left after he spun towards the front of the goal.

Not so fast.

In one motion, Malkin spun counterclock-wise and roofed a backhander as he was skating backwards away from -- and not looking at -- the goal that got behind a stunned Ward top-shelf and lifted the roof of a crazy Mellon Arena crowd that rained hats down on the ice in celebration of the Pens' 6-4 lead and Malkin's first career playoff hat trick.

Unbelieveable.

See for yourself: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MLLHFRoVoKo

The wind was mostly out of Carolina's sails there, and after Fleury made a key stop on Eric Cole to preserve the Pens' 2-goal lead with about 4 minutes to go, the Hurricanes threw in the towel and started trying to make a statement with their physical play, which included a match penalty to Carolina 4th liner Ryan Bayda, who cross-checked Letang in the face, and several other scrums. Those mix-ups included, among other things, noted pacifist Miroslav Satan raining blows down on Canes' defenseman Tim Gleason.

Anytime Satan is out there working someone over, you know everyone is pitching in for the cause.

Tyler Kennedy added an empty netter for Pittsburgh on their 42nd shot of the game to seal the 7-4 victory and the Penguins' big 2-0 lead in this series heading back to Carolina and the RBC Center for game 3 Saturday night.

One other player that was really solid for the Pens' last night was Matt Cooke. He finished with 3 helpers and, I felt, was a strong player in the offensive and neutral zones for the Penguins.

Last night's win tied an NHL playoff record for Pittsburgh as their 6th post-season victory this year after being down in a game.

Here's a couple great articles about game 2:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/playoffs/2009/news?columnist=burnside_scott&id=4197569

http://www.newsobserver.com/796/story/1537889.html

Carolina ended up being in over their head in this game. Their defensive play was terrible and their supposed "shutdown" goaltender Cam Ward didn't do any favors for his 2010 Canadian Olympic Team chances with a miserable performance while Canada GM Steve Yzerman was watching from the press box.

Ward certainly didn't get any help from his defensemen, but he should have been in better position on Talbot's goal, Kunitz's goal and even Malkin's HT goal. He is going down early and not nearly as sharp as we're used to seeing him. He had never lost a game 2 in his career before last night. The Penguins did a good job of getting a lot more chances on him, and he wasn't up to the challenge at all.

Overall, most of the game was sloppy, especially early, when the Penguins were not sharp around their goal either. The difference is that Pittsburgh has the horses to overcome that. Carolina, who hasn't gotten an impact performance from their only true impact player, Eric Staal, in this series thusfar, does not.

Perhaps most discouraging mentally for Carolina as they limp back to Raleigh, NC is the fact that the way game 2 went was the way they have been winning games most of the post-season.

The Hurricanes have shown a habit of getting down, but coming back. Carolina did that last night, too. But the Penguins took their punches and continued to counterpunch. In the end, the Hurricanes didn't end up with a last second victory like they usually do. Pittsburgh was just too strong.

Still, there's no doubt that Carolina will come out much better in game 3. They'll get a lot of energy from their fans and from being in their building. It's one of the loudest in the league and the Penguins are going to have to withstand the first 5 to 10 minutes in the next contest. To do that, they have to tighten up their defensive play and get another strong outing from Fleury -- epsecially early, as I mentioned -- like he gave them in game 1.

If Pittsburgh is able to be strong on the Hurricanes from the outset of game 3, they'll put themselves in a great position to take a commanding 3-0 lead in the series. If Carolina manages to get its game together and make the series 2-1 after Saturday night, we'll have a whole new ballgame.

The fulcrum is there to be pivoted. Who will do it?

With Sid and Geno, I like the Penguins' chances.

NOTE: I am going out of town for the holiday weekend, and may only have occasional internet access, so I may not be posting as much in the next few days, and when I do, it may be shorter. I apologize to my regular readers for the lack of attention, but will be back in the fold early next week, so please keep tuning in.

Let's Go Pens.

The Off Day

Today is the first of three 2-day breaks between games in the Eastern Conference Final between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Carolina Hurricanes, so there's much time to digest the series, looking both backwards and forwards.

Much of the focus for both teams coming out of game 1 is the status of Carolina wingers Erik Cole and Tuomo Ruutu, who were both injured in game 1.

Technically, both are questionable and, since this is the playoffs, the Penguins surely won't learn until the opening faceoff in game 2 whether either are playing.

Even the word from Raleigh, NC is mixed.

Hurricanes' GM Jim Rutherford said yesterday that he wasn't optimistic about the status of either player, and commented further that neither was Carolina's trainer after looking at MRI's on both players.

Ruutu, however, expressed optimism that he'd be ready to go for game 2.

If one or both can't go, the Hurricanes are likely to do some lineup shuffling, potentially moving center Jussi Jokinen to wing, and maybe dressing Brandon Sutter. Or they may go with seven defenseman and get Anton Babchuk and his big shot back in the lineup.

Again, time will tell, and the situation bears watching because both Ruutu and Cole are key players in Carolina's cog -- not necessarily for what they put up on the scoresheet, but for the physical play and grit they bring to the forecheck.

Undobutedly, the 2-day break between games 1 and 2 is a break for Carolina in this regard.

I also think the break could work to the Penguins' benefit somewhat.

Pittsburgh has dressed seven defenseman for 4 straight games now in the wake of Sergei Gonchar's injury and, while that has worked out pretty well for them, I worry a little about the impact that has on the 11 forwards who each get more minutes because they're covering an extra spot up front.

Usually, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin bear this burden and those are the two players you should worry about the most. If their extra gear isn't there, the Penguins will be in trouble. That's where the extra time off could help because, otherwise, I don't think it's a good long term idea to tax them like that.

Crosby, in particular, wasn't as much of a factor for Pittsburgh in game 1 as he was during the Washington series. I'm not chalking all of that -- or even that much of it -- up to fatigue, especially since he and the rest of his teammates had 4 days from the end of their series against the Capitals before game 1 on Monday, but the point is that you can't keep going with 11 forwards in the long run.

Pens' coach Dan Bylsma may go back to that well again on Thursday, but hopefully Gonchar will be well enough to take on a full load by Saturday when the Penguins can get back to 12 forwards in game 3 -- a game which will be come on the more regular every-other-day schedule following Thursday's game 2. Gonchar did play about 20 minutes in game 1 and is said to be improving every day, so let's hope ....

One guy I surprisingly haven't heard very much about in the last few weeks is center Mike Zigomanis.

Zigomanis, who had shoulder surgery about 5 months ago, was cleared for contact just under 2 weeks ago, and I thought he might even re-surface late in the Washington series. He didn't, however, and I haven't even really heard anything since then about when -- or if -- he may get back in the lineup.

Certainly, the Penguins could use him in the circle in this series, especially when Carolina has such a good player on the draw in center Rod Brind 'Amour.

In game 2, Pittsburgh needs to look to generate even more offense against the Hurricanes. They have to assume that Carolina goaltender Cam Ward will be better, and must bring more pressure around the goal to get pucks by him.

They also need to stay disciplined. They've done a really good job of that in the last few games.

How nice would it be to see LW Chris Kunitz get off his snide and score a playoff goal this post-season? The media was making light of his goal-scoring drought yesterday.

If there's anything noteworthy for tomorrow on the status of Cole and Ruutu -- or otherwise -- I'll update here. Otherwise, I'll post a game 2 review Friday morning.

Let's Go Pens.

The Race Is On: Fleury, Pens' Pace Past Carolina, 3-2, In Game One

Coming into the Eastern Conference Final, most NHL pundits and fans expected a "fast" series between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Carolina Hurricanes.

One with a lot of skating, and a lot of pace and flow, if not a lot of scoring chances, too.

Game 1 lived up to that billing, but the difference for the Penguins in their 3-2 victory was at the position where most felt they had a disadvantage coming into this series.

In goal.

Marc-Andre Fleury stopped 23 of 25 shots last night, outdueling his Carolina counterpart in goal, Stanley Cup and Conn Smythe winner Cam Ward.

Fleury was especially sharp early last night, stopping several good scoring chances by the Hurricanes early and giving his team the chance to ramp things up.

Ward?

Not so much.

The guy who most felt was the more consistent goaltender in this series -- by the way, the same netminder who, despite his 2006 resume, has failed to get his team in the post-season either of the last 2 seasons -- couldn't keep the Penguins off the board in the first when they scored 2 quick goals to get their crowd rocking and stake them to a 2-0 lead.

After failing on two early power plays of their own, the Penguins just finished killing off an interference penalty to RW Miroslav Satan when Satan stepped out of the penalty box and got a breakaway chance after a Hal Gill clear.

Satan skated in clean from 90 feet with speed, got Ward to bite on his shoulder drop deke, then went to the backhand and easily deposited the biscuit behind the Hurricanes' netminder 9 minutes in.

90 seconds later, defenseman Philippe Boucher led a 3-on-2 rush before finding the trailer, Evgeni Malkin, who deked to the backhand and deposited the puck far side past Ward from the slot to give Pittsburgh the lead by 2.

That held up until 13 minutes into the 2nd period when Carolina confused the Pens' defenseman by criss-crossing in the slot and completing a rush with a goal by LW Chad LaRose, who beat Fleury 5-hole to cut the lead in half.

Then, with about 8 and 1/2 minutes to go in the third period, while on power play thanks to Canes' center Matt Cullen shooting the puck over the glass from his own zone, Crosby found Boucher at the left point, who skated in to the top of the circle before wristing a stoppable shot that beat Ward between the legs to give the Penguins another big 2 goal cushion.

Pittsburgh needed that lead, too, because when defenseman Brooks Orpik was sent off for elbowing with about 2 and 1/2 minutes to go, Carolina defensman Joe Corvo got a goal a minute later that ping-ponged around and somehow found it's way past Fleury to cut the lead to one again.

Given the number of comebacks the Hurricanes have pulled off this post-season so far, that had to make a few people -- this writer included -- a little unsettled, but Fleury managed to make 2 more good stops in those last 90 seconds, including one on Eric Staal and another on a puck that took a strange bounce on him from about 120 feet, to secure the victory.

I'd have to say the Penguins' got a little bit better of the play overall last night, although not by a large margin. In fact, the hits and face-offs were about even. Pittsburgh did have 6 more shots than Carolina and took advantage of those chances.

But the story of the game was definitely #29.

You'll likely hear about a few injuries sustained by 2 Carolina forwards the next two days -- one by LW Tuomo Ruutu, who was wiped out by Pens' defenseman Mark Eaton in the first period, and another by LW Eric Cole, who collided with Pittsburgh LW Matt Cooke in an awkward collision about halfway through the third frame.

Canes' coach Paul Maurice felt Cooke's hit on Cole was knee-on-knee, but I disagree. Cooke turned his body to the side before colliding with Cole and, at least as far as I could see, didn't really stick out his leg. As I mentioned, the collision was just awkward. If he wants a true knee-on-knee hit, Maurice should go back and watch what Ovechkin did to Gonchar in the last round.

Personally, I think Eaton's hit was a bit more questionable. That was more like a slew foot and, while Ruutu seemingly trying to step out of the way from a bodycheck at the last minute was what likely put Eaton in a position of only wiping out Ruutu's leg, I think that should have been a penalty. It wasn't called, however.

Ruutu did not return, but Cole managed to at least get in one or two more shifts before the game ended.

These situations bear watching because, as I indicated yesterday, Carolina's success is based in large part on its depth, and Ruutu and Cole are soild parts of that depth. Of the two injuries, Ruutu's is said to be a bit more serious. Time will tell if they play in game 2.

So, at this point, the Penguins have started out strong, but that won't deter the Hurricanes, who have lost game 1 in 4 straight playoff series' now. In the end, they won each one of those series'. Because they'll be looking just to get a split on the road in Pittsburgh in this one, they can still achieve that by winning game 2, which makes it critical that the Penguins come out with a stronger effort in the next contest and put the pressure on Carolina going back home for game 3.

With 2 days off until that game on Thursday, they'll be plenty of time for both teams to prepare.

Maybe even for the Flower to bloom some more.

More tomorrow.

Penguins v. Hurricanes: Eastern Conference Finals Breakdown/Analysis

As the Pittsburgh Penguins prepare to begin their Eastern Conference Final tomorrow evening against the Carolina Hurricanes in game 1 at Mellon Arena (7:30 PM EST), the team faces a set of circumstances somewhat foreign to them the last 3 playoff years.

They are facing a team they have no real history with.

No real rivalry.

No real hatred.

At least not until the end of the first period tomorrow.

While in the last several seasons, the Penguins have faced an array of teams they love to hate -- the Philadelphia Flyers, the New York Rangers, The Washington Capitals, even the Ottawa Senators -- they are now left to square up against a Carolina squad who they've never met in the post-season.

If this were a first round series, the Penguins might be excused for lacking motivation.

With a Stanley Cup Final berth on the line, however, don't expect that to be a problem.

As usual, I'm going to break down the matchup between the Hurricanes and Penguins, focusing on a position-by-position analysis first. Then, I'll identify 3 players to watch in the series for each team, and talk about how each team can win the series. Finally, I'll offer my series prediction.


FORWARDS

Carolina brings a mostly lunch bucket group into this matchup with the Penguins, but that doesn't mean they should be taken lightly. They are a mostly non-descript group, but do have decent depth. Center -- and brother of current Penguin Jordan -- Eric Staal paces the way for the Hurricanes. He has 9 goals and 13 points to lead Carolina in scoring this post-season to-date. Matt Cullen, Jussi Jokinen and veteran/face-off ace Rod Brind 'Amour also patroll the middle for the Hurricanes. Jokinen is Carolina's second leading scorer with 6 goals (including 3 game-winners) and 10 points. On the wing, the Hurricanes bring speed and grit. Ray Whitney and Sergei Samsonov fit the former bill, with the likes of Scott Walker, Chad Larose adding the edge along the wall. Eric Cole, who played on Carolina's 2006 cup winning team and who rejoined the squad after being re-acquired at the trade deadline this season, brings both, but has struggled mightily in the playoffs this year so far, with only 2 assists in 14 games. Overall, though, with Carolina, it's more about quantity up-front than it is about quality.

There's no doubt that the Penguins can match Carolina's speed and grit, while at the same time adding a lot of star power with guys like Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. Crosby leads the playoffs in scoring right now and is playing the best hockey of his career -- and that's no small compliment. Malkin is 3rd in scoring in the post-season and remains capable of winning games by himself. While LW Chris Kunitz has been a relative disappointment so far with zero goals this playoff season and only 1 in his last 30 career playoff games, the Penguins have gotten a good deal of secondary scoring from guys like RW Bill Guerin and LW Ruslan Fedotenko, with 5 and 4 goals, respectively. Meanwhile, guys like Matt Cooke, Tyler Kennedy and Max Talbot and Staal have also had stretches where they've contributed, while doing a great job of controlling the puck and being aggressive in the opposition's defensive end. They'll need to do more of that in this series.

ADVANTAGE: Pittsburgh


DEFENSEMEN

Carolina has some better personnel on the backline than what the Penguins saw against the Washington Capitals, but again -- there are no big names here. Joni Pitkanen is Carolina's #1 defenseman and logs the most minutes, but will get help from the likes of Tim Gleason, Joe Corvo and Denis Seidenberg -- who round out Carolina's top 4. What's interesing about this group is that all are known to be somewhat more offensive-minded than defensive-minded. In other words, like the Capitals' defense, they aren't known to be very physical. They are more mobile as a group, though, and will battle, so they should be able to keep up with the Penguins' forwards. Frantesik Kaberle and Niclas Wallin fill out the top 6. Wallin is a warrior with a Stanley Cup, while Kaberle only recently got into the lineup after Anton Babchuk -- who had double digit goals this year -- was benched for poor play.

The Penguins' defense continues to be underrated, in this writer's opinion. They get it done defensively with the likes of Rob Scuderi and Hal Gill, both of whom were matched up against Capitals' RW Alexander Ovechkin in round 2 and did a pretty good job against him, shutting him down on many occasions despite his scoring totals overall in the series. On the offensive end, the Penguins' will again trot out their best 2-way pair of Sergei Gonchar and Brooks Oripk. Gonchar, who missed games 5 and 6 (and most of game 4) against Washington after his knee-on-knee collision with Ovechkin but game back for a game 7, practiced today and looked good doing it. He has improved a good deal since Wednesday and should be in the lineup for game 1. Mark Eaton and Kris Letang make up the other pairing and shoudn't be overlooked. Eaton is playing some strong two way hockey and, surprisingly, has as many goals in the post-season -- 4 -- as he did all regular season long, while Letang has almost as many points himself (9) as the Hurricanes 2nd leading team scorer in the post-season. Neither should be overlooked and have given the Pittsburgh defense a more dangerous dimension than they had in their Stanley Cup run last season.

ADVANTAGE: Pittsburgh


GOALTENDING

Hurricanes' netminder Cam Ward is, undoubtedly, the best goaltender the Penguins have faced in the post-season so far. Ward, remember, led Carolina to the Stanley Cup in 2006 and got a Conn Smythe trophy as playoff MVP for his trouble in doing so. He has yet to lose a playoff series. Ward is a stand up goaltender who's pretty technically sound but capable of the spectacular save. He has a 2.22 GAA and .927 SV % while going 8-6 thusfar this post-season.

His counterpart in Pittsburgh, Marc-Andre Fleury, doesn't measure up statistically with Ward, but is just as capable of making the timely, spectacular save and leading his team to victories. He's 8-5 with a 2.72 GAA and a .901 SV %. Fleury was oustanding in round 1 against the Philadelphia Flyers, but had an average series against Washington's stable of sharpshooters in round 2. He will need to up his play to match what Ward is likely to do in this one.

ADVANTAGE: Carolina


POWER PLAY

The Penguins enter the Eastern Conference Finals with a near 20% success rate on the man-advantage. That's a bit higher than their regular season average, and good for just above the middle of the post-season pack in 7th spot. Pittsburgh went 5 for its last 10 chances in their series against Washington, however, and put up at least one goal in the last 5 games of the series, so they're warming up at the right time. Plus, with their veteran, no-panic presence, Gonchar, getting back to full-health, the Pens' have the ability to make a difference on the power play in this series.

Carolina, meanwhile, has one of the worst power plays in the post-season, at about 10% and ranking 14th. One of the reasons for that is that they lack the game breaking presence up front. They also have been hurt by Cole's struggles thusfar, since he's their power forward and the guy that needs to create havoc in front. To make up for these deficiences, Carolina will use their defenseman a lot on the power play in the hope of generating more offense. Corvo and Pitkanen are both capable of getting the puck on the net, and Pittsburgh will have to watch them.

ADVANTAGE: Pittsburgh


PENALTY KILLING

In contrast to its power play, the Hurricanes' penalty killers have been outstanding in the post-season thusfar, killing off about 90% of their opponents' man-advantage opportunites. Boston -- a group that has a diverse and talented power play -- scored only 2 goals with the extra player in all 7 games against the Hurricanes in round 2. Carolina employs an aggressive penalty kill that will challenge a Pittsburgh power play that will need to emphasize quick puck movement and one-time shots (are you reading Kris Letang??) if it's going to have any success.

The Penguins have done a fair job on the PK this post-season, again checking in around 7th overall, at about 81%. If they stick to what they've been doing well, which is not taking too many penalties and clogging passing lanes, they should up those figures against a Hurricanes power play that, as set forth above, has just been miserable this playoff year so far.

ADVANTAGE: Carolina


COACHING

Carolina and Pittsburgh followed similar coaching paths this year in that both teams had to fire their existing coach more than half-way through the season. Both Carolina GM Jim Rutherford and Pittsburgh GM Ray Shero obviously made the right calls as veteran coach Paul Maurice and rookie coach Dan Bylsma led their respective squads on late season tears that carried each team to a playoff berth. Now, they both face off for the right to play for Lord Stanley's chalice.

Maurice can be a fiery guy at times, but he knows the game and is a good motivator who his players trust and respond to. He doesn't match lines or defense pairings a great deal -- perhaps because he doesn't have the personnel to do that -- but instead chooses to roll what he has. Maurice believes in his players and gets good results from them.

Now 2-0 in playoff series' at the NHL level, Bylsma has shown a steely resolve when things get tough and the ability to play tactician with his matchups. Like Maurice, his players believe in him, respect him and respond for him. There's probably no better quality than remaining calm in the face of adversity and sticking with what you believe in. The Penguins have done that thusfar and have reaped the rewards from mid-February on. Bylsma deserves a lot of credit for that, but each round is a new proving ground for him.

ADVANTAGE Carolina


INTANGIBLES

Carolina got a break from the league when the NHL scheduled many extra days off during the course of this series, since they just came off their 2nd straight 7-game set before barely advancing. In fact, if you go back to the Hurricanes' prior 2 playoff series' before this year, back in 2006, both of their last 2 series then went 7 games also. They've shown a lot of character in those situations, but it cuts both ways -- they also haven't shown the ability to dominate and roll over an opponent. Still, they have 10 players on their current outfit who were with them in 2006 and that veteran experience cannot be understated.

The Penguins have home-ice advantage in this series and, in addition, have another advantage in that they have the best player in the game on their team in Crosby. Worse news for Carolina is that Crosby -- long known as one of the most driven, competitive players in the game -- is showing a determination not ever seen from him before. It's going to take a lot to knock out him and his squad -- a Penguin team that has a mix of veteran leadership, youth, and its own history of clutch play.

ADVANTAGE: Pittsburgh


PLAYERS TO WATCH

CAROLINA:

1) Eric Staal, C -- Staal is the catlyst for the Hurricanes. He's a load to stop in the offensive zone and in the neutral zone and as he goes, Carolina goes. If he's not able to produce consistently against Pittsburgh, it's hard to see how the Hurricanes can prevail in this series. The Penguins will have the luxury of putting out their top defensive pairing of Gill and Scuderi against him since Carolina really doesn't have any other big offensive threats. On top of that, Jordan Staal may draw the assignment of trying to check his brother up front, and that will be a matchup worth watching.

2) Cam Ward, G -- Ward saw some good talent bearing down on him in the first two rounds against New Jersey and Boston, but nothing like what the Penguins can throw at him. He'll have his hands full against Pittsburgh, but the one thing he will do is make the Penguins work for their goals. However, he won't have a lot of help from a less-than-physical defense, so if the Penguins are able to get traffic in front of him and get pucks to the net, they should be able to beat him. Ward showed during several games in the first two rounds that he can't always shut the door.

3) Jussi Jokinen, C -- Waived by the lowly Tampa Bay Lightning earlier this season, Jokinen has been Carolina's most clutch player in the post-season so far. He scored a late goal in round 1 to help the Hurricanes beat New Jersey in game 3, and then to tie the score late in game 7 before Staal won it, and had another overtime marker against Boston. The puck seems to find him around the net, and that's because he usually has a good nose for it. Pittsburgh will need to know where he is at all times, especially when the Hurricanes are pressing for a goal or looking to break a tie late.

PITTSBURGH:

1) Tyler Kennedy, RW -- this series will be, no pun intended, 'Tyler-made" for Kennedy's game. It will be fast and up-tempo, and he's due to produce for Pittsburgh after having a few goals in the first series against the Flyers, but none against Washington in round 2. He'll likely see a lot of ice playing on Staal's line trying to shut down Hurricanes' center Eric Staal, and should be able to generate offense on the counterattack.

2) Bill Guerin, RW -- after starting a bit slow this year, with only 2 goals coming in 1 game during the Pens' entire 6-game series victory over Philadelphia in the first round, Guerin started to get things rolling more in the last 4 to 5 games of the Penguins' series against the Capitals. He's unleashing that big shot of his more and more, and will be a key to the success of the Pens' power play. While he's going to spend a lot of time trying to keep Ward from seeing the puck on the man-advantage, look for Pittsburgh to try and free him up to shoot more in those situations in this series.

3) Sergei Gonchar, D -- Gonchar is a big key to this series for Pittsburgh. He's always such a key guy for them because of his strong 2-way play and veteran presence, but he'll be even more important in this series because of his patience on the power play against a penalty killing unit that will pressure him every chance they get. Of course, all of that makes it even more critical that he continue his recovery from the upper leg contusion he suffered in round 2. It's a good thing for Pittsburgh that, by all accounts, Gonchar is rounding back into full health.


HOW THE HURRICANES CAN WIN

If Carolina can keep the Penguins' power play at bay, get timely saves from Ward when needed and keep the series' close enough to go 7 games, Carolina's chances of pulling the upset in this series go up dramatically.


HOW THE PENGUINS CAN WIN

If Pittsburgh continues to get exemplary play from Sidney Crosby and contributions from his supporting cast, and continues to dictate the pace to Carolina most of the series, they should have an opportunity by the end of this month to avenge last year's Stanley Cup Final loss.


PREDICTION

For as good as the Penguins' were in their run to the Stanley Cup Final last season, they appear more galvanized this playoff season. They've overcome more adversity this post-season already and show no signs of stopping. Couple those things with the best and most determined player in the game, and the fact that the Penguins also have a guy named Malkin, the scales just tip too much towards the Penguins in this one.

PENGUINS IN FIVE.