Stanley Cup Finals Breakdown/Analysis: Penguins & Red Wings Rematch

It's Stanley Cup or Bust for the Boys of Winter beginning with game 1 against the Red Wings in Detroit Saturday night (8 PM EST).

There certainly won't be a lack of motivation for either team -- Marion Hossa storyline or not. After all, the chance to have your name engraved on that silver thing is pretty powerful incentive for anyone who played hockey as a kid and dreamed of scoring the winning goal in game 7 of the Cup Final.

For the 2nd straight year, it's there for the taking for the Pittsburgh Penguins.

And, for the 2nd season in a row, the Detroit Red Wings stand in the way.

By this point, a lot of those in the news media, message boards and blogosphere have weighed in on who will win the series and why.

Now it's my turn.

My regular readers know how I typically anlayze each Pittsburgh series, and this one will hardly be different. For those who don't typically read, I'll break down the matchup position by position, identify 5 players for each team to watch, talk about how each team can win the series, then make a prediction.


FORWARDS

While the cast of characters remains largely the same for both of these two squads when compared to last season's Stanley Cup Final, the analysis isn't necessarily the same.

For instance, the Penguins 2 big guns, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, are completely dominating the post-season. They already have more points than they did last year, at 1-2 in the playoff scoring race with 28 each, and Crosby remains within reach of setting the all-time record for most goals in a single playoff year. He has 14 goals thusfar. 19 is the record, co-held by former Philadelphia Flyers' winger Reggie Leach and former Edmonton Oiler RW and Wayne Gretzky sidekick, Jari Kurri. Crosby and Malkin are playing with an unmatched intensity, focus and drive, unlike last year when Crosby was a little banged up and Malkin was out of gas come the Final. Moreover, Crosby has turned into an unstoppable force around the net. The real issue for Detroit isn't whether they can stop these two wonderkids -- it's more a matter of whether they can contain them.

Like last year, the Penguins have a strong supporting cast, although not from the likes of Hossa, Ryan Malone or even Petr Sykora. Instead, Pittsburgh has filled those slots with Chris Kunitz, Bill Guerin, and Ruslan Fedotenko, and all have played well this playoff year. Guerin is having the best post-season of his career with 7 goals and 14 points. While Kunitz only has 1 goal, he has 12 points. Fedotenko has 6 big goals for Pittsburgh. Many of their other depth players have come up with big goals in the post-season, too, including Max Talbot and Tyler Kennedy. Add to that one of the best 3rd line centers in the league in Jordan Staal and it's obvious why the Penguins are one of the deepest teams overall -- and certainly the deepest down the middle -- of any in the National Hockey League.

That's why the Penguins lead the league in goals per game in the post-season, at 3.82, and really -- when you think about it -- that's an insane number of average goals per game in the post-season when everything is tighter, everyone plays tougher defense, etc. What the Penguins have accomplished consistently in their new aggressive system under coach Dan Bylsma is nothing short of amazing.

Detroit's offense certainly is no slouch either, scoring 3.69 goals per game. However, their 2 superstars, Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk aren't playing up the levels they reached in last year's postseason. While Zetterberg has still produced with 9 goals and 18 points, 10 other Red Wing players have scored more than Hart Trophy candidate Datsyuk, who has only 1 goal -- which came in round 1 against the Columbus Blue Jackets -- and 6 assists. Now, Datsyuk has missed several games with injuries and is currently doubtful for game one with a foot problem.

Where the Red Wings have made up for that is with their superior depth. Johan Franzen has 10 goals and 19 points. Dan Cleary has 8 goals and 14 points. Valtteri Filppula has 14 points, but only 1 goal. All of those guys have outscored Hossa, who has only 6 goals and 12 assists in the playoffs thusfar. Throw in the usual gritty, clutch performances from crease-crasher Tomas Holmstrom, role players Mikael Samuelsoon and Jiri Hudler, and veteran Kris Draper (when he has played), and you see why Detroit remains among the most dangerous teams in the game.

The biggest difficulty the Penguins may have is dealing with the fact that Detroit can put a good power forward on each line -- Homstrom, Franzen and Cleary. Containing the "net presence" of all of these guys could be one of the biggest factors in the series.

The Penguins have the advantage on the high-end (although it's close), while the Red Wings have the depth advantage (while, again, it's close).

ADVANTAGE: EVEN


DEFENSEMEN

The Red Wings boast one of the greatest group of defensemen in the NHL, led by their Captain, all-world two-way defender Nicklas Lidstrom. While he's expected to suit up for game 1 after missing games 4 and 5 of the Detroit series against the Chicago Blackhawks, Lidstrom is a little banged up right now. He is said to have a lower body injury, and it could be a groin problem which might limit his mobility.

Lidstrom is typically paired with the smart and offensively-savvy Brian Rafalski. After those 2, the Red Wings throw out their physical pair in Brad Stuart and Niklas Kronwall. Both have 1 goal and 7 points and are among the league leaders in seismic post-season hits. Just ask 'Hawks RW Martin Havlat, who Kronwall briefly knocked unconscious in game 3.

After those guys, I think there is a bit of a drop off, with big, smooth rookie Jonathan Ericsson and 2-way defenseman Brett Lebda.

On the Penguins side, they've gotten big contributions from almost all of their defensemen this post-season so far. Sergei Gonchar leads the way for the Pens' offensively, with 12 points in the playoffs -- and that's with him probably still recovering a little bit from the knee-on-knee hit he took from Washington Capitals' LW Alexander Ovechkin in game 4 of their 2nd round series with Pittsburgh. Gonchar also is a smart defender in his own end who is more effective defensively than most give him credit for.

Kris Letang also brings a fair bit of offense, with 9 points so far. Letang, was scoreless in Pittsburgh's Eastern Conference Finals with Carolina, however -- no easy feat considering how many goals the Penguins scored in that series.

Two-way defenseman and expert shot blocker Mark Eaton has more goals than either Gonchar or Letang. He has 4 and has shown the fair offensive talent he has when given the opportunity to jump in the play. That's something he has had more of a chance to do under Blysma.

Brooks Oprik bring the physical presence the Penguins need, and he'll do it without getting caught out of position very much -- something essential against a team as good as Detroit. Meanwhile, defensive defensemen Hal Gil land Rob Scuderi continue to do a fabulous job being matched up against -- and shutting down -- the opponent's top players. Look for Blysma to match them up against the Zetterberg and Franzen like whenever possible.

Philippe Boucher may or may not play in this series. He's been the Pens' 7th defensemen, and they have gone with 7 "D" since Gonchar went out. Bylsma isn't a fan of that approach, but he can't argue with the results, and he may very well stay with it in the Finals -- at least for one of the opening 2 back-t0-back games, when energy will be at a premium

ADVANTAGE: Detroit


GOALTENDING

I can't stand Chris Osgood.

There. I said it.

I just don't believe in him. I don't care that he's having a pretty good post-season. He's 12-4 with a 2.06 GAA and .924 SV %. Those are good numbers, sure. But remember, this is the guy who had one of his worst regular seasons this past year. His coach, Mike Babcock, even sent him "away" from the team so he could "clear his head"mid-season. That's not a guy that would make me feel completely comfortable, which is one of the reasons why I think he can be had. The key is getting through the Red Wings defense and defensive system. If you do that, you can get to him.

Marc-Andre Fleury had a fairly good series against the Hurricanes in round 3. He gave up some questionable rebounds in game 2, but was strong in game 1 and game 4. He also only let up 2 goals against in game 3. He leads the playoffs in wins with 13, and has a 2.62 GAA and .906 SV %. Many people think Fleury is better this year than last. I'm not so sure that's the case because, while Fleury still has the occasional moment with a rebound or even playing the puck (although he was excellent at that in the Carolina series), he's been pretty solid for 3 years now. He just finished badly outplaying a guy who everyone felt was the best goaltender left alive in the playoffs, and a guy more widely regarded as a more likely candidate for the 2010 Olympic Team -- Cam Ward. Fleury's biggest thing is to not give up any freebies against Detroit, and continue to do what he has all post-season long -- make the big save when necessary.

One of the biggest factors for me here is the ability to steal games. Everyone knows Fleury can do that. But for all the time I've seen Osgood play, I've rarely seen him "steal" a game.

ADVANTAGE: Pittsburgh.


POWER PLAY

Detroit is clicking at a very strong 25.7 % on the PP in the post-season so far, good for 3rd in the league, and with all the talent they have, it's no surprise. The key to the Red Wings power play is the havoc that Holmstrom, Franzen and Cleary can cause in front. They are a nightmare for penalty killing units to match up against because of that alone. And that allows Detroit to keep it simple on the man-advantage, despite all their talent. What do they do? Shoot pucks to the net.

The Penguins aren't ranked as highly on the man-advantage, sitting 7th at 19.7%, but they have been pretty good lately, clicking at a percentage between 25% adn 30% over the last 8 games. They are doing a lot of what the Red Wings do -- get pucks to the net. Coincidentally, the Penguins have also gone to the more 'comfortable' set up for them on the PP during that same period, with Letang at the left point, and Malkin or Crosby interchanging positions on the near boards or down low, with Guerin and his shot in front.

ADVANTAGE: Detroit


PENALTY KILLING

Detroit's penalty killing could be described as somewhere between a month old bologna sandwich and something a lot less tasty.

And that would be charitable.

The Red Wings PK is at 73.7 and, really, this has been a problem for them all season. They are weak in this area and the Penguins need to exploit it. Interestingly, all the "experts" and "pundits" who have picked Detroit to win this series have conveniently neglected to mention how awful the 'Wings PK really is.

The Penguins, meanwhile, are at 83.7 % when down a man. And while that number is in the middle of the playoff pack, the Penguins have done much better in this area for the last 3/4 months. Scuderi and Gill really do a great job for Pittsburgh when down a man.

Pittsburgh only allowed one power play goal to the Hurricanes in the last series, and one of the biggest reasons why was that they took much fewer penalties. They were able to skate well and not be in position to take a penalty. They'll need to do more of that if they want to beat the Red Wings.

ADVANTAGE: Penguins.


COACHING

Dan Bylsma is a Mike Babcock protege. They have a lot of the same approaches to coaching and, while Babcock is a little more abrasive (for example, his comment earlier today about how when he sees highlights of last season's Cup Final, he thinks the Penguins must have won because all he sees is Sidney Crosby), they both have their teams play an aggressive, puck-possession, attacking style of game designed to generate a lot of shots and scroing chances. Whoever is able to dictate that play to the other team in this series will have the upper hand.

Bylsma has done a great job in his first 3 playoff series', continuing to make good decisions (like staying with 7 "D", for example), and not over-coaching. While this is his first Stanley Cup Final, there's no reason to think he's going to do anything different. He's a big believer in his sytem and I doubt anything will change that.

For now, this category is settled with the fact that Babcock has a cup, while Bylsma does not (yet).

ADVANTAGE: Detroit.


INTNANGIBLES

The Red Wings have home-ice advantage in this series, but I actually don't view that as a big advantage to them. It was last year when the Penguins were wide-eyed in games 1 and 2 in Detroit, but that won't happen this season. Moreover, the Penguins have already won 6 road playoff games, and have clinched each of their 3 series' on the road, demonstrating the mental toughness necessary to win in a hostile enviornment in the post-season. And don't underestimate the 3OT win in game 5 of the Final in Detroit last year.

On the injury front, the Penguins are a pretty healthy bunch, while several Red Wings are dealing with moderate to nagging injuries that could limit them or, in some cases, already is.

As I mentioned, Detroit expects to have Lidstrom back for game 1. Datsyuk is less likely. Kris Draper probably won't return until next week. All 3 practiced with the team today, however. Jonathan Ericsson, who had an emergency appedectomy 2 days ago, didn't practice today, but should be ready for game 1.

On top of all those injuries, the Red Wings have to deal with the fact that the first two games of the series, as previously mentioned, are on back-to-back nights. The first 4 games of the series will be played in 6 nights. This isn't rocket science here -- obviously -- but one would think that if those factors were to give either team an advantage, Pittsburgh would have it.

Which team will get something from "The Hossa Factor" also could mean a lot. Will Hossa want to prove he made the right decision to bolt to the rival Red Wings, or will the Penguins do more to shove it up Hossa's you-know-what? Either way, the teams will be motivated to win, but to the extent this could have any impact on the series -- even if slight -- it could be meaningful in a close matchup.

ADVANTAGE: Pittsburgh.


PLAYERS TO WATCH

DETROIT:

1) Chris Osgood, G -- Osgood has won 3 Stanley Cups as a career, but he always has his detractors (including me -- see above). If he wins another Cup, will he finally convince everyone else he is one of the better goalies to play the game? He may not put me in that camp, but that doesn't mean he isn't perhaps the biggest key to this series for the Red Wings, because there's no question the Penguins are going to throw more rubber at him. Back in October, the Penguins turned up the volume on him in the 3rd period and he folded quicker than a cheap lawn chair in a light breeze.

2) Niklas Kronwall, D -- Kronwall is on this list because he can change the course and momentum of a series with one hit. If he were to lay out either Crosby or Malkin for the series, the dynamic of everything will change entirely. Those guys -- and every other Penguin for that matter -- needs to be sure they have their heads up at all times when Kronwall is on the ice.

3) Johan Franzen, LW -- This guy is a beast in front of the opposition net and, while he may not deflect pucks the same way as Holmstrom does, he takes up just as much room and has much better hands for any rebounds just sitting around. The Penguins will have their hands full with him phsyically.

4) Marion Hossa, RW -- what else needs to be said about this guy? He made his choice. Now, the Penguins have the chance to prove he made the wrong one. Can you see the storylines now? Penguins win. Hossa has a bad series -- finishing with less than half of the points he had in last year's postseason. I doubt Hossa will go in the tank beacuse he's a good player with a lot of pride who's hard to handle, but boy would it be nice to see him fall.

5) Nicklas Lidstrom, D -- Lidstrom's health means everything to Detroit in this series beacuse he's likely to be matched against Crosby, and if he can't stick with Sid in his own zone or around the net, it's going to cause trouble for the Red Wings. For this reason, Lidstrom's health and movement around the ice definitely deserve watching.

PENGUINS:

1) Sidney Crosby, C -- Crosby has been playing the best hockey of his career, even if he had "only" 7 points in 4 games against Carolina. He's the Captain of this hockey club and seems inspired to end his season with a victory in his last game. He's going to be much more for the Red Wings to handle in this Cup Final than he was last season.

2) Evgeni Malkin, C -- Like Crosby, Malkin is playing some of the best hockey of his career. Unlike last year in the championship round, Malkin looks roaring and ready to go this time around. He can take over a game with his puck-attack mentality. When that happens, you have goals like his masterpiece HT marker in the 3rd period of game 2 against the Hurricanes.

3) Marc-Andre Fleury, G -- Fleury will be tested in this series with a lot of shots and must be up to the task if the Penguins are going to win their first Stanley Cup since 1992. More importantly, he needs to make the timely save and not let up any easy rebounds or rebound goals. You can't give Detroit an inch and need every advantage you can get over them.

4) Max Talbot, LW -- This guy lives for the spotlight. When you don't think he's going to come through for you, he does, whether it's the goal in 3 OT's in game 5 of the Cup Final last year, or the big goal he scored against Carolina in the last round. He's the type of player -- like Samuelsson for Detroit -- who can make a big difference with a timely goal or hit.

5) Rob Scuderi and Hal Gill, D -- These guys deserve all the credit they get and, as mentioned above, will probably see a lot of #'s 40 and 93. If they do even a token job of settling these 2 down, the Pens' chances of winning raise dramatically.


HOW THE RED WINGS CAN WIN

Cause trouble in front of Fleury, get healthy -- quickly -- then skate with the Penguins so they limit their own turnovers, hope for a big critic-answering performance from Hossa, and pray that Crosby and Malkin slow down, then.


HOW THE PENGUINS CAN WIN

Continue to have #'s 87 and 71 "Act As If" (Boiler Room movie reference), get the big stops from Fleury, limit their turnover and when they do, don't give the Red Wings any freebees.


Before my prediction, here are some other articles and predictions:

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/2009/05/28/kelley_column/

http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Hockey/NHL/Playoffs/2009/05/28/9604381-ap.html

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=424108&navid=DLNHLHome

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=280215

http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Hockey/NHL/Playoffs/Pittsburgh/2009/05/29/9610741-sun.html


MY PREDICTION

This is the Penguins' year. They are hungry, skilled and systemic. It won't be easy, but I believe that Pittsburgh will have enough to defeat the game defending champions and have Gart Bettman award that cup to Captain Crosby after a hard-fought 7 games, returning the Cup to The 'Burgh for the first time since 1992.

Recap of game 1 Sunday.

Let's Go Pens!