Thursday, April 29, 2010

Penguins v. Canadiens: Eastern Conference Seminfinals Breakdown/Analysis

It's funny how things can change in a matter of minutes in life.

One minute you're cruising along in your car and the next minute another driver wrecks into you and makes your world miserable for the next several months.

One minute you arrive at your girlfriend's house to surprise her and the next you find her treating another guy like he's an amusement park ride.

One minute you're rooting for a team with fervor in the hope they knock off your arch rivals so you can enjoy their playoff misery and the next you spew venom and hatred for that same team because they now stand in the way of your favorite local hockey club in the next round.

And so that brings us to the Montreal Canadiens.

After being the biggest Habs fan on Wednesday night when the closing seconds ticked off the game 7 clock in their eliminatation of the Washington Capitals from the post-season, I immediately reverted back to my old ways of hating Les Canadiens and their 24 franchise Stanley Cups almost as much as any other team in the league when that clock hit 0:00.

That hatred is likely to be in full force over the next few weeks as the Penguins and Canadiens face off in the post-season for only the second time in the storied history of their respective franchises.

Perhaps the most common question I've been asked since Wednesday night when the Penguins learned that Montreal would be their opponent is this:

"If Montreal shut Washington down offensively, won't they automatically do the same thing to the Penguins?"

In my opinion, that's an easy question to answer.

And the answer is no.

For more on why that's true, read on in my series breakdown. As usual, I will focus on a position-by-position analysis of each team, and examine how the special teams, coaching and intangibles of each club stack up against each other. I'll also identify 3 players to watch from each club and offer what I think each team needs to do to win the series. Following that will be my series prediction.

So, without further adieu ...

FORWARDS

If it's one thing about Montreal's group up front, it's that they are little on size and big on heart. All of their skill players -- Mike Cammalleri, Brian Gionta, Scott Gomez, Tomas Pekanec and Andrei Kostitsyn -- are the diminutive sort who skate well and scoot around the ice with fairly good speed. They will compete for pucks, but aren't physical and therefore, aren't going to make life miserable in front of the opposing goaltender. Still, they generate sufficient offense for the team -- especially Cammalleri, who had a fantastic first round against Washington with 5 goals and 10 points. The problem for Montreal is that they don't have good depth up front. After that group, the talent and skill level drops off considerably, with guys like Dominic Moore, Travis Moen, Glen Metropolit and Maxim Lapierre filling out their forward ranks. Those guys aren't high on the name-recognition list, to say the least. While serviceable, the bottom-6 Montreal forwards are pretty much what you'd expect for the playoff team who entered the field with the worst record of any post-season club.

Pittsburgh, on the other hand, can compete on the top end of their forward group, and they have stronger depth players throughout their forward ranks. Of course, Sidney Crosby -- leading the playoff field with 14 points -- and Evgeni Malkin still lead the way offensively for them, but guys like Bill Guerin and Chris Kunitz had strong first round series' against the Ottawa Senators. Each of those guys pitched in 6 points, and third liners like Matt Cooke and Pascal Dupuis each put up 4 points in round one, as well. The Penguins also have a big advantage on the third line in this series, which means Jordan Staal has a good chance of having a much greater impact in this round than he did against Ottawa, when his play was generally regarded as below average.

ADVANTAGE: Pittsburgh


DEFENSEMEN

The Canadiens do have a bona-fide all-star on their blueline in rearguard Andre Markov. Markov missed several games against the Penguins this year in the regular season, and Pittsburgh certainly made no apologies for that because Markov is a real offensive threat on the point with a big shot. Roman Hamrlik is another generally steady veteran presence for the Canadiens on the blueine, as is Jaroslav Spacek, but Spacek only played 3 games in the opening round against the Capitals due to injury. Losing him hurt Montreal in that series, but they got a big round from Josh Gorges and former Penguin Hal Gill to make up for it. Those two make up what the Canadiens call their 'shutdown pair', so it's not unreasonable to think they'll be matched up a lot against Crosby's line in this series. Beyond that, the Canadiens have a very questionable third pair in rookie Pk Subban and Marc-Andre Bergeron. Bergeron, in particular, is not very reliable. He mainly plays only on the power play for the Habs at this point. Why? He was a -8 in the first round. That says all you need to know.

The Penguins are a more well-rounded bunch on their backline, with Sergei Gonchar leading the offense and partner Brooks Orpik leading the defense. Kris Letang had a strong first series against the Senators with 2 goals and solid 2-way play, and Mark Eaton brings a reliable presence when he's on the ice. Alex Goligoski had a better first round than many people realize, and his partner, Jay McKee was mostly (but not always) steady, if not unspectacular. McKee brings good penalty killing and shot-blocking experience to the Pittsburgh blueline corps, though. The wild-card is two-way reargauard and veteran Jordan Leopold, who is still recovering from suffering a concussion he suffered in game 2 of the Senators' series and, while he won't be ready to start round 2, Leopold will probably return at some point during the series.

ADVANTAGE: Pittsburgh


GOALTENDING

This may be the most-watched position in this series.

Montreal Canadiens' netminder Jaroslav Halak played out of his mind in the last three games of the first round against Washington, allowing only 3 goals on 134 shots. He was the biggest reason why Montreal advanced and needs to be the biggest factor in this series if the Canadiens are going to have a chance at their second straight momentuous upset. Halak always has been capable of stealing games -- which is exactly what he and his save percentage of almost 94% did to the Capitals -- but the curious thing is that Halak was not only pulled from a game in the Washington series, but was BENCHED for the next contest. I doubt that will happen in this series again, but he is capable of having really poor outings at times.

Some would say the same thing about the guy who will be manning the cage at the other end, Penguin goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury. Clearly, Fleury has the big-game history and experience over Halak, but Fleury was inconsistent for the final 6 weeks of the regular season and wasn't really the reason the Penguins won a single game in their opening round 6-game victory over Ottawa. He finished that series with below average numbers (2.75 GAA and a save % of 89), too. Pittsburgh needs Fleury to step up and win a few games for them at some point, and there may be nights in this series when he'll have to match Halak save-for-save to keep the Penguins in it.

ADVANTAGE: Even


SPECIAL TEAMS

Pittsburgh's power play continued its significantly improved play, clicking at 25% in the first round and ranking 5th of all playoff teams. Montreal hit at a respectable 20% level, too, however. While those units performed relatively comparably in round 1, it is the penalty kililng units that sets these teams apart. The Penguins were next to last against Ottawa in the first round, killing off man-advantage opportunities at only a 68% clip -- next to last in the playoff field. Montreal, meanwhile, was stellar in the first round killing off power plays by the team with, far and away, the best power play in the league this year. Behind defensive whiz assistant coach Kirk Muller, they let up only 1 PP goal to Washington in 33 chances. That's going to have to continue for them to have a chance in this series.

ADVANTAGE: Montreal


COACHING

The Canadiens' have an experienced bench boss -- Jacques Martin -- and he did a great job in the first round getting the matchups he was looking for, even on the road. Martin is generally a defensive coach who asks his players to clog the neutral zone, chip pucks out of their end, and quickly counter-attack as a group with speed and short passes.

The Penguins, meanwhile, trot out a coach who has yet to lose an NHL playoff series in 5 tries, and continues to show a deft ability to calmly steer the Pittsburgh playoff ship through sometimes stressful playoff waters. Blymsa also does a pretty good job with matchups, so watching what he and Martin do against one another will be one of the more interesting subplots of this series.

ADVANTAGE: Even


INTANGIBLES

There's no doubt the Canadiens have to feel a bit emblazoned by their 'shock-the-world' victory over the Presidents' Trophy winning Capitals in the first round, so they should be able to start the series in full-playoff mode. Whether that lasts or not remains to be seen, but one thing doesn't -- Montreal won't be intimidated by the fact that they don't have home ice advantage in this series. They won 3 games on the road in round 1 and, behind Halak, can frustrate a team in their own building.

Pittsburgh was able to rest and recuperate from a physical series and shouldn't be anywhere near as drained as Montreal is after the emotional baggage they now carry after the Capitals' series. The Penguins have to start better in games, though, and that danger is particularly acute against a team like Montreal that's going from one series right to another. And, while -- like Montreal -- Pittsburgh won 3 games on the road in the first round to participate in a trend of road teams winning league-wide this playoff year, you can't say that having home ice is anything but an advantage.

ADVANTAGE: Even


CANADIENS' PLAYERS TO WATCH

1) LW Mike Cammalleri -- I talked earlier about how dangerous Cammalleri was in round 1, and there's no question the Penguins will have to watch him closely any time he's in the offensive zone. If he doesn't produce for Montreal, though, the Canadiens will struggle to score goals. He's proven to be that important to them.

2) G Jaroslav Halak -- Halak carried his team through most of the first round against Washington. Can he continue his stellar play? For Pittsburgh to beat him, they have to crash the net, create traffic in front of him, and get pucks high.

3) D Hal Gill -- Gill was great in the first round, showing everyone why Montreal was happy to sign him away from the Penguins after last season. The USS Gill is a defensive force around the blueline and on the penalty kill because of his reach, but just like while he was in Pittsburgh, Gill remains a potential defensive liability if you can cycle the puck down low and get him running around in his own zone, simply because he doesn't have the foot speed.


PENGUINS' PLAYERS TO WATCH

1) C Sidney Crosby -- Sid The Kid was the best player in the playoffs in round 1. He dominated the team with maybe the best defensive blueliners in the Eastern Conference. He looks focused and determined to be not just the youngest Captain to lead his team to the Stanley Cup, but the youngest Captain to lead his club to back-to-back Stanley Cups. Plus, he has the added incentive of playing against the team he grew up rooting for in this series.

2) D Kris Letang -- Letang had a subpar regular season for Pittsburgh, but he has upped his game so far in the post-season, demonstrating the strong two-way game that everyone knows he's capable of. Letang, another Canadien, could have a huge series for the Penguins.

3) RW Max Talbot -- Like Letang, Talbot didn't meet expectations this year in the regular season. Unlike Letang, though, he wasn't just subpar -- he was awful. BUT, when the stakes go up, like they do in the post-season, Talbot consistently raises his game. He was one of the best Penguin players in their first round series win over the Senators, and looks like he's just settling back into his grove.


HOW THE CANADIENS CAN WIN

Hope Halak continues his Ken Dryden impersonation, win the special teams battle, and get unexpected offensive contributions from someone not in their top 5 forwards.


HOW THE PENGUINS CAN WIN

Not get burned by Montreal's transition game, create offense down low, and watch Crosby continue to dispel any remaining myth that there's a defenseman or team out there who can contain him.


PREDICTION

Despite their seeding and the fact that they won only 1 of 4 games against Pittsburgh during the regular season, Montreal will pose some challenges for the Penguins. They are likely to have a boost early in this series coming off their big victory over Washington, but don't overlook how much that probably took out of them. That's likely to show up in the long run, especially when Montreal's overall depth can't match that of Pittsburgh. Moreover, while Montreal does have the personnel to defend a team that likes to attack through the neutral zone like Washington, they have yet to show they can defend well against a team like the Penguins that know how to generate offense off the cycle and once already in the offensive zone. Finally, while Halak still has the potential to be a stopper for the Canadiens in this series, it's probably just as reasonable to think he will be unable to sustain that level of play. He was out of this world and Montreal moved on by only a single goal. If he falters, they probably won't fare all that well.

The Canadiens would have stood a better chance against Pittsburgh had they seen them in the first round. They upset the Capitals in that round before Washington had a chance to get their feet under them. Montreal won't have that luxury against a Penguin team which crossed that bridge and now appears to be back and ready to compete in the way they do best.

PENGUINS IN SIX.

Crosby Finalist For Hart Trophy As League's MVP

In what may have been the worst kept secret going the last 4-6 weeks, the NHL announced today the three finalists for the Hart Trophy as the league's Most Valuable Player, and to nobody's surprise, the list consists of the 3 top scorers in the league this season:

Center Henrik Sedin of the Vancouver Canucks.

LW Alexander Ovechkin of the Washington Capitals.

And the hometown hero, Center Sidney Crosby of the Penguins.

Despite the obvious finalist choices, the Hart Trophy race is pretty tough to handicap this year. I don't think any one of the three is a heads-and-shoulders choice over the other two.

Sedin had a fantastic season for the Canucks, and he led the league in scoring this year with 112 points, 3 more than Crosby or Ovechkin.

For his part, Sid led the league in goal-scoring with 51, tying for top honors with Tampa Bay Lightning wunderkind Steven Stamkos, and finished 2nd in the overall scoring race.

Ovechkin, meanwhile, probably had what would be considered an off-year for him, with 50 goals and 59 assists, albeit in only 72 games.

If anyone has the inside track, it's probably #8, simply because the dynamic flair he brings to the ice night in and night out is appreciated by so many throughout the league, but it would be folly to rule out Sedin, who rose up the NHL radar so much this year it's hard not to be immensely impressed by the season he had.

Crosby, meanwhile, has a few things going for his candidacy, too. His partner-in-crime in Pittsburgh, Evgeni Malkin, had what was generally considered a bad season, making Crosby's year that much more impressive. Take #87 away from the Penguins and the drop off is a lot more notable than, for example, what happens if you take Ovechkin from the Capitals' lineup.

Either way, the race is going to be tight. Ovechkin has won the last two Harts, so it's very possible that the voters will look in a different direction in a close race.

Let's hope they look in the direction of the guy who plays for the local hockey club.

The winner will be announced at the NHL's annual awards gala June 23 in Las Vegas.

Penguins Draw Canadiens In Round 2 After Their History-Making Series Upset Over Washington


When in doubt, always listen to a Pittsburgh-guy.

Columbus Blue Jackets forward -- and Plum native -- R.J. Umberger caused a stir around 6-8 weeks ago when he publicly spoke about how, essentially, the Washington Capitals were overrated.

As brazen as that may have seemed at the time, the theory had some life going into last night's game 7 at the Verizon Center in Washington as the Capitals were in a win-and-take-all contest just days after blowing a 3-1 series lead to their opponent and the worst team to make it to the playoffs this year (on the last day of the regular season, no less) -- the Montreal Canadiens.

Undeniably, the pressure on Washington in the Nation's Capital was palpable going into the game last night, and one need look no further than here for evidence of that:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/04/27/AR2010042704750.html

Now, after the Caps fell to Montreal 2-1 in game 7 last night and became the first team in NHL history to blow a 3-games-to-1 series lead as a #1 seed -- let alone the runaway President's Trophy winner as the league's best team in the regular season -- to a #8 seed in the process, the agony in Washington is virtually indescribable.

And, for those who enjoy the misery of Washington Captial fans -- like I do -- you'll surely enjoy all the headlines and articles here:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/sports/capitals/index.html?nid=roll_capitals

http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/playoffs/2010/columns/story?columnist=burnside_scott&id=5146185

I confess to the jumping-up-and-down joy I had last night in seeing the Captials fall. They are now 1-3 in 7th games under their coach, Bruce Boudreau, who was very plain with the media after the game last night in saying that he thought his team had a great chance to win the Stanley Cup this year.

Uh, no.

He should have listened to Caps' fan Rob Darnell, who had this to say before last night's game:

"When it really, really counts, they just don't get it done."

And so it was for the Capitals last night.

Again.

Anyway, with Washington's pain comes a date in the second round for the Penguins with a determined Montreal group, beginning with game 1 tomorrow night at Mellon Arena.

As the Penguins' Canadian playoff tour continues, here's the series schedule:

Game 1 -- at Pittsburgh, Friday, 4-30 (7:00 PM, VERSUS)

Game 2 -- at Pittsburgh, Sunday, 5-2 (2:00 PM, NBC)

Game 3 -- at Montreal, Tuesday, 5-4 (7:00 PM, FSN PITTSBURGH)

Game 4 -- at Montreal, Thursday, 5-6 (7:00 PM, VERSUS)

Game 5 -- at Pittsburgh, Saturday, 5-8 (7:00 PM, VERSUS)

Game 6 -- at Montreal, Monday, 5-10 (7:00 PM, FSN PITTSBURGH)

Game 7 -- at Pittsburgh, Wednesday, 5-12 (TBD, FSN PITTSBURGH)

The NHL certainly didn't do the Canadiens any favors in not giving them any rest before the next round.

On the other side of the equation, they'll certainly be in full playoff mode, and Pittsburgh will need to get into things quickly after having 6 days off following their game 6 overtime victory in round one over the Ottawa Senators.

The good news is that Pittsburgh is getting healthier. Somewhat.

Defenseman Jordan Leopold -- out since game 2 of the Ottawa series with a concussion -- was cleared to skate with his teammates yesterday. He has not been cleared for contact, however. Still, assuming no setbacks as he gets back into the full practice routine, he should be able to return to the lineup sometime in the upcoming series.

RW Tyler Kennedy's situation is a bit cloudier. He skated informally on Monday, but missed each of the last two days of practice, so his right knee is clearly still bothering him.

His status for game 1 is uncertain.

LW Chris Kunitz also didn't practice the last few days while he gave his sore shoulder some additional rest after the physical first round against the Senators, but he should be ready to go for game 1.

The Penguins will also have their full taxi squad with them now, as 7 additional players from the Baby Penguins joined them yesterday -- forwards Eric Tangradi, Mark Letestu, Nick Johnson, Tim Wallace and Dustin Jeffrey, defenseman Steve Wagner, and goaltender John Curry.

One more thing ....

Don't think Pittsburgh will roll over the Canadiens and have an easy series. It's simple to look at them as a #8 team and think that the Penguins should beat them handily. That's what the Capitals thought they would do and the Canadiens proved to be a difficult opponent. The Pens will need to work hard against Montreal and wear them down.

More on how they can do that in my series preview/breakdown tomorrow.

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

5 Thoughts On Round 1 As The Penguins Look Ahead To Round 2

While the waiting game continues for the Pittsburgh Penguins before they learn the identity of their second round opponent (more on this below), I thought this would be a good time to take a little deeper of a look back into the team's round 1 victory over the Ottawa Senators and offer 5 thoughts on the series.

First of all, I said before the series --- before the playoffs even started, actually --- that the Senators might be a good opening round opponent for the Penguins because they would provide the test Pittsburgh needed to change the ho-hum way they played during the final six weeks of the regular season.

After seeing the challenge the Senators provided in 6 tough games, it would seem my perspective was validated.

Ottawa was a physical opponent that forced the Penguins to elevate their game to levels they hadn't reached in weeks -- levels that are necessary to win in the post-season. Sure, the Senators had their weaknesses in their game, and those weaknesses showed up in the series, but they certainly didn't let Pittsburgh skate by them easily.

The 6-game tilt the Pens just finished with Ottawa should serve them well as the playoffs go on.

Second, is there any surprise the Penguins took the series on the road?

Pittsburgh didn't clinch a single series at home in last year's playoffs either and, while it would be nice to see them walk the handshake line on the right side of victory in front of the home fans, I don't really care where they win, as long as they do.

Still, it's hard not to be impressed by what the Pens do on the road. They won all 3 games in Ottawa in the series, making it 6 straight playoff contests since the lockout in which they've beaten the Senators in their barn.

On the other hand, the Penguins won only 1 of 3 games at Mellon Arena in the series. That's not consistent with the dominance they've had at home against the Eastern Conference in the last 2 playoff years, and is something they need to change going forward.

Third, I thought the Penguins prevailing in a game where Sidney Crosby went pointless for the first time in the round was ironic.

Crosby was absolutely dominant against the Senators, scoring more points in six (five, really) games (14) than he did in the epic performance he gave in the seven contests of last year's second round series against the Washington Capitals (13).

The upside of Crosby not contributing in game 6 was that it gave an opportunity to the 3rd line to shine for the first time in the series.

Jordan Staal's line hadn't been that good for the first 5 games. Staal and his mates had little offensive impact up to that point and were a combined minus 10 going into the final series' contest. For as good as Crosby was -- and Malkin, too, for that matter -- it was time for the 3rd line to do their part.

And do their part they did.

Cooke had 2 huge goals in the final game and Staal made a dominant play down low to set up linemate Pascal Dupuis' series winner.

The Pens will need their 3rd line to better their play in the next round if they are going to improve their chances of advancing.

Fourth -- and speaking of the need for improved play -- Pittsburgh needs more from goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury.

Fleury's save percentage is below .900 after round 1, and while statistics obviously aren't everything, it's clear to me that Fleury can still play a lot better.

Undoubtedly, Fleury was not the reason the Penguins advanced to round 2. Now, it's also true that he didn't have to be, but it's hard to think the Pens are going to continue to average 4 goals per game (as they have through round 1) as the playoffs go on. Fleury is going to have to step up his game and start to be the reason the Pens win from time to time. He's one of the few Penguins that I don't believe raised his level of play from the regular season to round 1 against the Senators. That needs to change.

Fifth -- and finally -- I'll be curious to see whether one other Penguin trend continues to play out in the next round.

Pittsburgh fell behind on the scoreboard early in almost every game against Ottawa, no thanks to the them consistently -- and unexplainably -- coming out of the gate flat. They can't continue to do that on a consistent basis if they are going to win. On the other hand, how can you not apprecaite their character and ability to come back in games? Their opponent in round 2 needs to be on notice that, despite a two or even three goal lead, Pittsburgh isn't out of it.

Those are my 5 first round thoughts, and speaking of the Pens' opponent in round 2, all we know at this point is that it will either be the 6th seeded Boston Bruins or the 8th seeded Montreal Canadiens.

Boston dispatched the Buffalo Sabres in 6 games after a 4-3 home victory last night, while Montreal beat Washington last night, 4-1, to draw that series even at 3 games each after being down 3 games to 1 just a few days ago.

Habs' goaltender Jaroslav Halak was fantastic last night, making more than 50 stops and shutting down Washington's vaunted attack left and right.

(While I hope the Penguins won't start allowing that many shots, that's the type of game the team needs to start seeing from Fleury, by the way).

I still don't think Montreal wins the series, but there's certainly no question which team squarely has all the pressure going into game 7 on Wednesday night in DC. If the Canadiens are somehow able to prevail in that one, it will be one of the biggest upsets in NHL playoff history.

And it will send the Canadiens to Pittsburgh for the second round.

If the Capitals win, the Bruins will come to town.

Either way, the series won't begin until Friday at the earliest, and is probably more likely to start on Saturday since the other Eastern Conference team waiting for an opponent -- the Philadelphia Flyers -- has been waiting on the sidelines even longer (since last Thursday) and probably will get the first Eastern Conference playoff game.

That would give the Penguins a solid 7 days of rest, which might be enough to allow injured players Tyler Kennedy and Jordan Leopold to either return to the lineup or get a whole lot closer to doing it.

TK is more likely to be ready. He's expected to practice with the team when they resume scheduled on-ice work today after two days off.

Leopold, on the other hand, is doing some light skating, but hasn't been cleared for contact yet after suffering concussion-like symptoms after a hit to the head from Senators' defenseman Andy Sutton in game 2.

Leopold is improving, though, and while it's probably more unlikely than not that he'd be ready for the start of the round, it wouldn't be unreasonable at all to see him rejoin the lineup at some point in the series.

More later this week once the Pens know who their 2nd round foe is.

Sunday, April 25, 2010

SUPER DUPER: Dupuis Completes Pittsburgh Comeback And Ends Ottawa's Season With Game 6 OT Winner



Was that the Ottawa Senators the Penguins were playing in the first round, or was that the Philadelphia Flyers in disguise?


Because, ladies and gentlemen -- to quote Pens' Hall of Fame play-by-play radio announcer Mike Lange -- we've seen this fish before!


Yeah, Pittsburgh has this act down pat by now.


Go up 3-1 in your first round playoff series to a physical opponent, blow the chance to close out the series on your rink in game 5, head to the visitor's building for game 6 and promptly spawn hope in every corner of their team and fan base by falling behind 3-zip.


Then, crush their collective dreams and spirit by coming back to win in dramatic fashion to take the series.


Every Penguin fan remembers how that act played out against the arch rival Philadelphia Flyers in the first round last year.


Well, last night, in a game where the most dominant offensive force in the series thus far -- Pens' Center and Captain Sidney Crosby -- didn't have a point, it was deja vu when LW Pascal Dupuis sent Pittsburgh into the second round with a beautiful, pin-point, top-corner wrist shot from the bottom of the left circle that beat Sens' netminder Pascal LeClaire at near the 10-minute mark of overtime.


That came after Ottawa ran the score to 3-0 after 30 minutes and, once again, had the Penguins looking like they were going to have to host not only a series-deciding contest at home.


And also, perhaps the final hockey game ever at Mellon Arena.


"It was like a party out there," said Senators' forward Peter Regin, perhaps the Sens' best forward in this series.


"We just wanted the party to continue."


Party-crashers, those Penguins.


After last year, Pittsburgh fans know to never doubt the determination and want-to of the defending Stanley Cup Champions.


But they sure know how to do things the hard way.


After giving up a breakway goal to Ottawa' forward Matt Cullen 5 minutes into the game, the Senators' upped their lead to 3-0 on goals by RW Chris Neil and LW Daniel Alfredsson in the second frame.


Alfredsson -- who everyone knew hadn't been playing at full strength and revealed after the game that he had been playing with a torn abdominal muscle -- had his strongest game of the series and really put the screws to Pittsburgh with his tally.


But the Penguins' best forward in this game -- LW Matt Cooke -- poked in a loose puck a little more than a minute later to stabilize the Boys of Winter and turn the game around.


From there, Pittsburgh controlled the play. In the 3rd period, they dominated the Senators, outshooting them 18-4.


And they were rewarded for it when Bill Guerin scored on the power play to make it 3-2 by beating LeClaire glove side, and then Cooke poked in another rebound around the net off a face-off play to tie the score about 5 minutes later.


"In these elimination games, you can't afford to lose momentum for long stretches," said Alfredsson.


"We did, and we're done."


And done they were when #9 worked his magic.


Strangley enough, last night's game had 3 more disputed goal plays, 2 of which again required consultation of the NHL war-room in Toronto -- which made 6 total reviews like that in this series.


Last night, one came on a potential goal by Pens' forward Mike Rupp in the first period, and then the other one came in the third period and overturned a Senators' goal on a play were it was ruled the net came off its moorings just before the puck dribbled over the goal line and past Pens' netminder Marc-Andre Fleury.


Pittsburgh forward Alexei Ponikarovsky also had a goal waved off in the 3rd period by the always-ambiguous ruling that, while there's no penalty for goaltender interference, there's still no goal because the goalie wasn't able to play his position and stop the puck.


I've never understood that rule.


In any event, after delivering what has now been described as easily the most crushing loss in the modern history of the Ottawa Senators ---




--- the Penguins now await their second round opponent.


While it still could be any remaining team in the field, it is more likely to be the Buffalo Sabres or Boston Bruins.


The Bruins lead that series 3-2, with game 6 in Boston today.


The Penguins have wrapped up their first race. let's see where they go next.


More post-game tomorrow.


Friday, April 23, 2010

Senators Save Their Season With 4-3 Triple Overtime Victory In Game 5

Up 3 games to 1 in their Eastern Conference Quarterfinal series, the Pittsburgh Penguins stood to gain a great deal of beneficial rest if they were able to close out the Ottawa Senators on home ice in game 5 last night.

Now, after the Senators' 4-3 triple overtime victory on defenseman Matt Carker's goal, not only will the Penguins have to go at least 6 to defeat Ottawa, it will feel like at least 7 after the teams played nearly two full games in this thriller.

And what a strange game it was.

With a raucous crowd behind them, the Penguins promptly came out of the gate in game 5 somewhat flat and disinterested and almost handed the game to the Senators.

Mike Fisher got credit for the opening goal when a shot from Sens' blueliner Erik Karlsson ping-ponged of him and Pens' defenseman Sergei Gonchar before going past Pittsburgh goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury.

About a minute later, Ottawa continued to take the play to the Penguins when forward Mike Folingo beat lumbering Penguins' rearguard Jay McKee to the puck on the far wall in the Pittsburgh zone, then pushed the puck by him behind the net, slipped around backchecker Chris Kunitz, then fed the puck in front where Senators' forward Jarkko Ruutu banged it home for a 2-0 lead.

At that point -- seeing his team get outworked and outhustled, especially down low -- Penguins' Head Coach Dan Bylsma called a timeout to try and stabilize his troops.

It must have worked because Pittsburgh re-gained their equilibrium, then were rewarded when defenseman Kris Letang scored a power play goal past surprise Ottawa starter Pascal LeClaire later in the period to make the score 2-1 heading into the first intermission.

Then, with the second period winding down, the teams saw the first of 3 disputed goal plays in the game that necessitated video review in the NHL's league office in Toronto.

On the first one, Kunitz banged a puck just through LeClaire and across the line, but the official immediately waived off the goal.

I initially thought he could only be waiving it off because the net came off its moorings on the play, but there was a small problem with that theory.

The net obviously never came off.

It lifted all right -- on both sides -- but never came off. Immediately when the play was blown dead, I looked at the net and saw it in place right where it belongs.

So then I thought that couldn't be the reason --- he must have just lost sight of the puck. The Pens were screwed if that was the case because you can't reverse those calls. It's just bad luck.

Alas, after review, it seemed the question had to do with the moorings after all, and because they didn't come off, Pittsburgh was awarded the tying goal.

It looked good for the Penguins about 9 minutes into the 3rd when Sidney Crosby made an incredible play to hustle to a loose puck in the slot and bang it past LeClaire for a 3-2 Pittsburgh lead, but Ottawa's best forward in this series so far, Peter Regin, negated that when he scored on a slapshot from 50 feet at the center point to tie the score again.

Because that's the way it remained, the teams went to overtime and Ottawa came out in the extra session against Pittsburgh the way they opened the game -- firing on all cylinders. And, it looked like they got rewarded for it.

Mike Folingo had a rebound go off a Jason Spezza shot go off him and behind Fleury for what appeared to be the game-winner.

Like Kunitz' marker toward the end of the second period, Folingo's goal was immediately waived off, and like Kunitz's tally, it required video review.

Unlike Kunitz's goal, however, it was ruled no-goal.

Frankly, I was a little surprised by the ruling because, while the puck clearly went in off Foligno's skate, it was difficult to see a 'distinct kicking motion', as I understand the NHL to require if a goal in that situation is to be disallowed.

Thankfully for Pittsburgh at that point, the folks in Toronto apparently didn't see it that way and chose not to end a playoff overtime game by overruling one of their on-ice officials.

Nothing changed in the rest of that OT, and in the second extra session, Evgeni Malkin had the best chance for Pittsburgh when he took a turnaround shot from the slot that went off something and off the post behind LeClaire.

Finally, 7 minutes into the 3rd overtime, Ottawa defenseman Matt Carkner kept the Senators' season alive by ending things the way multiple-OT games often go.

By just getting the puck on the net and getting a break.

Which is what he did when he hammered one from the right point that appeared to go off Pens' forward Matt Cooke and past Fleury for the game-winner.

And so, with a few unlikely heros in Carkner and LeClaire -- who stopped 56 of 59 shots in a career playoff debut that doubled as the longest game in Ottawa Senators' history -- the Senators will return home to host the Penguins in game 6 at Scotiabank place on Saturday night (7:00 PM, VERSUS).

Of course, the Penguins seemingly wouldn't have it any othe way.

They failed twice last year to close teams out early on home ice, and instead won every single series last season on their way to the Stanley Cup on the road.

Let's hope for more of the same this season starting on Saturday night in Ottawa, where Pittsburgh dominated the Senators in games 3 and 4 in their barn.

Rest. Refresh. Regroup. Then get the next one.

That's what the Penguins have to do.

More later.

Thursday, April 22, 2010

Pittsburgh Looking To End Ottawa's Season Tonight

With game 5 of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinal on tap tonight between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Ottawa Senators at Mellon Arena (7:00 PM, VERSUS), the two clubs couldn't have more opposite mindsets.

And both have earned them honestly in this series.

Ottawa is just trying to survive.

The Penguins, meanwhile, are going for the kill.

Which angle plays out tonight is certainly worth watching, and the biggest factor in determining that will probably be Penguins' Captain Sidney Crosby.

With a ridiculous 11 points in 4 contests against the Senators this post-season, #87 is averaging almost 3 points per game in this series (2.75 PPG).

He now has 24 points in 13 career playoff games against Ottawa.

Everyone knows that if he has another strong game tonight, the Senators are probably finished. That's certainly the view from Canada's Capital:

http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Hockey/NHL/Playoffs/Ottawa/2010/04/21/13672371.html

One interesting thing to come out of the Sens' camp yesterday was the comments from their general manager, Bryan Murray.

Murray has been unusually quiet during this series so far, but when talking with the media on the off-day yesterday, he said he thought the Senators had actually been TOO physical with Pittsburgh.

"We've been more interested in running around and hitting people than just playing the way we normally play," Murray said.

"We just went out to crucify people rather than play smart," Murray continued.

More on that can be found here:

http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Hockey/NHL/Playoffs/Ottawa/2010/04/21/13673006.html

Whether Ottawa has focused too much on the physical part of the game is somewhat conjecture, but there's no mistaking that the Penguins have not wilted in the face of their physicality.

But, really --- is that a surprise from a team that's been to the last two Stanley Cup Finals and knows what it takes to win?

Not nearly.

That said, the Pens' defense deserves some extra credit. They've been particularly unfazed by the aggressive forecheck of the Senators. They've done a great job at absorbing punishment in the spirit of getting the puck up to the forwards and out of the zone quickly.

It's nice to know I'm not the only one showing them some love, either:

http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Hockey/NHL/Playoffs/Pittsburgh/2010/04/21/13672446.html

In truth, though, I'm not sure Ottawa's main concern is whether they've been too physical, or whether or not they're playing their game.

I think their main concern right now is between the pipes.

And understandably, so.

Their starter in this series, Brian Elliott, has a miserable goals against average of over 4 per game, and a horrific save percentage that's hovering somewhere around 85%.

For that reason, it's no surprise that there are big question marks as to whether Elliott is going to get the call tonight in game 5.

Sens' Head Coach Cory Clouston was non-committal yesterday on who would start -- at least publicly. He said they have settled on the starter, but wouldn't announce it until game day.

While there has been some talk that Ottawa might stick with backup Pascal LeClaire -- or even go with their 3rd man, rookie Mike Brodeur -- odds are that Clouston will live and die with Elliott again tonight.

That's what I'd do if I were in his shoes. You have to go with who you think your best man is. And even if you lose, you've gained good experience for the next time. I realize that's little consolation for a team who ends up making early golf reservations, but changing goaltenders back and forth in the post-season is nothing more than a sign of desperation.

Of course, Ottawa is desperate, but it's not like they have a lot of other good options. If they did, that's who they would have gone with in the first place, which is exactly the point.

For Pittsburgh, it doesn't look like they're going to have RW Tyler Kennedy in the lineup tonight.

TK suffered a lower body -- believed to be right knee -- injury after being checked hard into the boards on a legal hit from Ottawa blueliner Andy Sutton in game 4.

Kennedy is day-to-day and will probably sit out tonight while he recovers, with veteran Ruslan Fedotenko taking his place in the lineup.

Feds may even play on the 3rd line with Jordan Staal and Matt Cooke this evening, although I'd be more inclined to slot him on the 4th unit and instead move up a guy who's been highly effective in this series so far in TK's place --- Max Talbot.

Meanwhile, defenseman Jordan Leopold is not under any consideration to return tonight, and probably will miss the rest of this series. He's recovering, but isn't even skating again with the team yet.

Leopold has a history of concussions and, assuming the Penguins advance, it's likely to be 10-14 days before there's even a chance of him returing. Jay McKee has looked good in his absence, so there's certainly no rush to get #4 back at this point.

We'll see what happens tonight. Ottawa has never won a playoff series when they've been down 3 games to 1. The Penguins shouldn't be looking past the Senators and instead need to show the killer instinct that Stanley Cup Champions should have. They'll certainly get richly rewarded with a nice dose of rest if they come up with a big "W" tonight.

Recap tomorrow.

Let's Go Pens!

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Penguins Push Ottawa To Brink Of Elimination With 7-4 Mauling In Game Four

Before this Eastern Conference Quarterfinal between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Ottawa Senators resumed at Ottawa's Scotiabank Place last night with the Penguins up 2-1 in the series, Sens' Head Coach Cory Clouston was asked about the uneven performance of his rookie goaltender, Brian Elliott, in the first three games up to that point.

"I don't think we're good enough to have just average goaltending," Clouston said.

After the Penguins scorched the Senators for 7 goals in a 7-4 victory in game 4, it's plain that they aren't good enough with below average goaltending, either.

Pittsburgh chased Elliott to the bench after he allowed 4 goals in 20 or so shots in about only 25 minutes of work, then almost as violently abused the relief man, Pascal LeClaire, for 3 goals the rest of the way.

In fairness to Ottawa, bad goaltending wasn't their only issue last night.

Ghastly turnovers and inexcusable penalties were almost as responsible for their defeat as the play of their netminders.

Look no further than their two 'too-many-men-on-the-ice' penalties last night.

That's three in the series so far. And that comes after 13 of those during the regular season.

"We got nobody to look at but ourselves," Senators' defenseman Chris Phillips said afterwards.

Things started innocuously enough in the game, with the Pens' leading 1-0 after one period on an Evgeni Malkin power play goal, his fourth of the series.

In the 2nd period, the onslaught began.

Just a few minutes into the frame, with the Senators pressing, Ottawa center Jason Speeza made a nice play to win possession of the puck behind the Penguins net then skated into the corner and a little bit up the boards towards the point looking to make a play.

For some reason, he thought he had a point man to give the puck to, but when he tried that, Pens' blueliner Sergei Gonchar -- covering him from behind -- swiped the biscuit and was quickly joined by Chris Kunitz and Sidney Crosby in stride on an odd-man rush.

Sarge pushed the puck up to Kunitz who fought off Senators' defenseman Anton Volchenkov at the Ottawa blue line and just nudged the puck ahead to Crosby who picked it up in full flight between the circles and quickly whipped a wrist shot past Elliot for a 2-0 lead.

I hope you didn't go to the bathroom at this point, folks.

After the ensuing faceoff, the puck was dumped into the Ottawa zone. Elliott went behind his net to do what he doesn't do all that well --- play the puck.

Sure enough, Elliott tossed it right to Talbot in the near corner. Mad Max looked up, found a streaking Matt Cooke in the slot, and he beat Elliott to the far side with a wrister to make it 3-0 only 12 seconds after Crosby's goal.

When the Pens' Captain scored on a wrist shot to the far side from the right circle on a 1-on-1 rush just a few minutes later to make the score 4-0, Clouston had seen enough of Elliott.

The game did get a little interesting at that point, as Chris Neil scored to make it 4-1. Unfortunately, he helped kill any momentum his goal might have generated when he punched Pens' blueliner Kris Letang in the back and knocked him down in the course of the goal celebration, leaving the Sens shorthanded for the next two minutes.

While they killed that penalty and Ottawa Captain Daniel Alfredsson got on the board for the first time in this series with a nice slapshot tally from the left circle a few minutes later, Ottawa couldn't help but continue stumbling all over itself.

After the Penguins took another penalty and gave the Senators a chance to get right back in the game, they allowed a shorthanded goal to Pens' center Max Talbot, who finished a beautiful cross-crease diagonal pass from fellow penalty killer Craig Adams by chipping the puck over LeClaire's shoulder for a 5-2 lead.

Less than a minute later, though, after another Penguin penalty and a 2-man advantage, Ottawa forward Matt Cullen easily scored on a cross-ice one-timer that Pens' netminder Marc-Andre Fleury was helpless to stop.

Again within 2 goals, Crosby killed the Senators' momentum when he made a beautiful play to tap a rebound back to linemate Chris Kunitz while drawing close attention near the Senators' net by not one, but TWO Ottawa players.

Kunitz took advantage easily and beat LeClaire on the glove side to make it 6-3 and end a wild second period that saw 8 goals between the teams.

After another two-man advantage goal for Ottawa to make it 6-4 about 7 minutes into the 3rd period, Pens' third-line center Jordan Staal -- fresh off his Selke Trophy nomination -- scored on the power play by chipping a rebound up over LeClaire and off the crossbar and in to make it 7-4.

When that settled to be the final score, all the Senators were left with were questions.

For one, which goaltender do they go with in game 5 back at Mellon Arena on Thursday night.

For another, how can they contain Sidney Crosby?

There are no easy answers to either for Ottawa.

Both Elliott and LeClaire look overmatched, and Crosby is having one of the best series' of his young career.

After his two goals and two assists last night, he has 11 points in 4 games.

At that pace, Crosby would shatter the NHL playoff record for most points in a single post-season.

The Senators were supposed to have the answer for him, with their supposed 'shutdown' pairing of defensemen Chris Phillips and Anton Volchenkov, but all the Pens' Captain has done is dominate.

Crosby has hit another gear right now -- there's no question about it. And everyone knows it. To wit:

http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Hockey/NHL/Playoffs/Pittsburgh/2010/04/20/13660071.html

Ottawa fans will probably gripe about the officiating last night and, to some degree, rightfully so. The zebras were terrible last night. They failed to call a pretty obvious slashing call on Pittsburgh early in the game, then didn't call and even more obvious delay of game penalty in the 3rd period with the Pens' on the power play when Kunitz accidentally shot the puck into the netting behind the Pens' goal.

On the other side of the ledger, the Penguins weren't dolled out any favors from the officials either. Two extended 5-on-3's against is a tough pill for anyone to swallow. Those are just about gimme goals and the fact that those situations were the result of some pretty ticky-tack calls makes them even tougher to take.

The reality, however, is that the officiating didn't decide the game.

The Penguins simply overwhelmed the Senators last night, and with the Pens only needing one more win to seal this series, Ottawa can see things slipping away:

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/sports/hockey/ottawa-senators/Slip+slip+slipping+away/2931269/story.html

"We're working. We're trying," Spezza said.

And even with too-many-men, they can't keep up.

More later.


NOTES:

Pens' RW Tyler Kennedy left the game in the 3rd period with what appeared to be a lower body injury after a check on the near boards from hulking Sens' defenseman Andy Sutton and did not return. There's no word at this point on the scope or severity of TK's injury.

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Pens' Staal A Finalist For Selke Trophy As League's Best Defensive Forward


Pittsburgh Penguins' Head Coach Dan Bylsma suggested yesterday that a couple of players on his team were good enough to win the Franke J. Selke trophy awarded annually to the league's best defenisve forward.

Of course, Blysma was referring to both Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin when he made those remarks, but the members of the NHL Professional Hockey Writers' Association - who determine the finalists for the Selke award --obviously disagree with the Pittsburgh coach.

Fortunately for Bylsma, he can still look down his bench and find one of the three nominees.

21-year old Pens' center Jordan Staal was announced as one of the three finalists for the Selke Trophy today.

To go with 49 points this year on 21 goals and 28 assists, Staal finished the year with a career-high plus 19 rating, despite playing most of the season against the oppositions' top offensive players.

Only one Penguin has ever won the Selke trophy, and that was nearly 15 years ago when Ron Francis won it after the 1994/1995 season.

Staal has strong competition for the award in both Detroit Red Wings' Center Pavel Datsyuk and Vancouver Canucks forward Ryan Kessler.

Datsyuk has won the award 2 years running and once again led the league in takeaways this year.

Unlike in prior seasons, though, Datsyuk may not be quite on the radar as much, beacuse he missed a dozen games due to injury, and had an offensive season that was significantly below his standards.

Kessler was a finalist for the award last year and, in a strong year for him offensively, put up as many points as Datsyuk did -- 70.

In what might be the most meaningful statistic for those dolling out the Selke, however, Kessler was only a +1 on the season.

It's going to be interesting to see who wins the trophy this year. While everyone in Penguin Nation is pulling for Staal, first time finalists for the award typically don't win. The writers generally like to see sustained defensive excellence before voting on someone to win the Selke.

That said, Staal has been generally regarded as a strong defensive forward since he came into the league. And, unlike Datsyuk or Kessler, always is asked to shut down the other team's top line. In Detroit, Datsyuk is counted on for offense more than defense, and Kessler -- while a fine two-way player -- isn't commonly known throughout the league as a shutdown guy like Staal is.

Like I said, it will be interesting.


NOTES:

With the elimination of the Pittsburgh Penguins' AHL Wilkes Barre affiliate in a 4-game, first round playoff sweep at the hands of the Albany River Rats, the Pens have recalled defenseman Deryk Engelland to the big club.

Engelland isn't expected to play tonight, but will stick with the team throughout the rest of the post-season as a member of their taxi squad. He probably won't be the only one called up, either. I would expect about 3-4 forwards to join the team over the next several days when they return to Pittsburgh from Ottawa, including -- potentially -- top power forward prospect Eric Tangradi, who joined the Penguins for his first NHL game in the season finale against the New York Islanders on April 11.

After A Strong Game 3 Win, Penguins Will Look To Take Series Command In Game 4

Going into game 3 of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinal series against the Ottawa Senators, the Pittsburgh Penguins were sure to face a hostile crowd in a building that houses the team with the 6th best home record in the NHL this season.

And raucous the crowd was.

For about 77 seconds.

That's when the Penguins began reminding everyone that they are a strong road team.

Pittsburgh RW Alexei Ponikarovsky got a little bit of the monkey off his back by opening up the scoring and quieting Scotiabank Place at that point of the first period, and the Penguins used that as a jumping-off point to roll to a demonstrative 4-2 victory and 2-1 series lead on Sunday night.

After the Senators tied the game early in the 2nd period on a Mike Fisher power play goal, the Pens took over, with tallies by their big guns, Evgeni Malkin -- on a play made possible by a hustling max talbot -- and Sidney Crosby.

Crosby's goal, in particular, hurt the Senators because it came late in the period and was another signature effort by the Penguins' Captain.

Crosby took the puck from the corner and cut right to the high-traffic area in front of the goal, leaving Sens' defenseman Andy Sutton in the dust and holding the puck for what seemed like an eternity before he drew down Ottawa netminder Brian Elliott and then deposited the puck upstairs for a 3-1 Pittsburgh advantage.

When Pens' veteran Bill Guerin undressed Elliott on a breakway about 5 minutes into the 3rd period for a 4-1 edge, the game was over -- notwithstanding Matt Cullen's power play tally later in the frame.

And so, as the teams get ready for always the biggest potential swing game in any series -- game 4 -- tonight, many questions loom for the Senators.

First and foremost of those is whether their two stars, Jason Spezza and Daniel Alfredsson, are giong to score a goal or even come close to the impact that Crosby and Malkin have had on this series for Pittsburgh.

To wit:

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/sports/penguins/s_677261.html

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/allan_muir/04/19/pens.sens.game3/index.html?xid=siextra_041910

For his part, Crosby now has 7 points in 3 games in this series and leads the league in playoff scoring.

So much for the Senators' history of shutting him down.

For their part, it's obvious that if Speeza and Alfredsson don't contribute -- and soon -- the Senators will be done quickly in this series. And I'm not the only one who feels that way:

http://www.ottawasun.com/sports/columnists/don_brennan/2010/04/19/13644641.html

The other very interesting aspect of this series so far has been how strong defensively the Penguins have been.

They've limited the Senators to around 20 shots in each of game 2 and game 3, and that's making it hard for Ottawa to capitalize. The Penguins have done an especially good job getting the puck out of their zone quickly the last few games and, when they have not, they've been getting in the shooting and passing lanes to limit good scoring chances from the Sens.

The best part is that all 20 guys are doing that for Pittsburgh, from defenseman Jay McKee -- who joined the lineup for game 3 when Jordan Leopold stayed in Pittsburgh after what is believed to be a concussion on the Sutton hit in game 2 -- all the way up to Crosby.

#87, in particular, has been especially stout defensively in this series. He has 5 takeaways thusfar and is doing a great job creating offense starting in his own zone. Here's a great piece on how good Sid has been on the 'other' side of the puck:

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=526184

The one area Pittsburgh could be better in is killing penalties. Ottawa is burning them hard on the power play thusfar. After killing around an 83% clip in the regular season, the Pens are allowing goals at nearly a 50% rate when down a man.

That has to change.

Meanwhile, the Senators are supposedly considering lineup changes tonight, including -- but perhaps not limited to -- sitting forward Ryan Shannon, who joined the lineup earlier in the series after Milan Michalek's season ended with a torn ACL, in place of former 50-goal scorer Jonathan Cheechoo, who's been playing in the American Hockey League after putting up a miserable 14 points in 66 games with the Senators before the Olympics this year.

Some observers are starting to see Pittsburgh's dominance in this series. For example:

http://www.ottawasun.com/sports/hockey/2010/04/19/13643061.html

I, for one, am not ready to go there at this point. While I'm glad the Penguins are on the right side of the 2-1 ledger right now, they have no room to get complacent. If the Senators win tonight, everything starts over. Pittsburgh needs a big effort this evening and, if they get it, they'll be in a strong position to close out Ottawa back in their barn on Thursday night in game 5.

We'll see how it plays out.

Recap tomorrow.

Let's Go Pens!

Saturday, April 17, 2010

When A Hat Trick Isn't Three Goals: Penguins, Crosby Tie Series, Defeat Sens In Game 2, 2-1

There's been a lot of talk leading up to this Eastern Conference Quarterfinal between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Ottawa Senators about how well the Sens' dynamic blueline duo of Anton Volchenkov and Chris Phillips have done in limiting Pens' Captain Sidney Crosby's input.

And yet, after his virtuoso 1 goal, 1 assist, and 1 save 'hat trick' in leading the Penguins to a 2-1 victory in game 2 last night -- and now a 1-1 series tie -- there Crosby sits with 5 points after 2 games.

If this series goes 7 games and Crosby puts up 17 points in it, there's little doubt that the Penguins will have taken it.

And a place in the 2nd round that goes along with doing so.

Last night, Pittsburgh sure started the game ominously enough as Peter Regin scored on a 45 foot wrist shot over the glove hand of Pens' nemtinder Marc-Andre Fleury as the fans were still getting in their seats only 18 seconds into the contest.

Not me. I was in my seat and had an ugly look at the whole thing from behind the play.

After Fleury's performance in game 1, that was a tough one to swallow, but Regin made a nice shot, and I place greater fault at the feet of Pens' blueliner Sergei Gonchar, who gave Regin just way too much room on the rush. His failure to close the gap there hurt.

Crosby then tied the game about 1/2 way through the first when Ottawa goaltender Brian Elliott again flubbed another shot with his glove hand -- this time by Pens' LW Chris Kunitz whipping one on net after a Jason Spezza turnover -- and left it right at his feet for #87 to bang home.

Elliott has had remarkable trouble just catching the biscuit half the time in this series, and time will tell whether the Penguins will be able to fully exploit that.

With the score tied, the Penguins really started to ramp up their game later in the period, and there's little doubt it had a lot to do with the emotion they gained after a monstrous hit from Sens' defenseman Andy Sutton left Pittsburgh rearguard Jordan Leopold out cold, face-down on the ice close to the near boards at the center red line.

There's already been a lot of talk about this hit in the immediate aftermath of the game -- ranging from calls on Pittsburgh's end for a suspension of the player who previously sat 2 games earlier this year for plastering an imprint of Pens' forward Pascal Dupuis' lip on the dasher wall behind the net, to calls that the hit was legal and not deserving of anything other than the boos Sutton got from the Pittsburgh faithful for the remainder of the game.

Now, no penalty was called on the play, and it doesn't appear the league is going to suspend Sutton, so the jury is out as to whether the play was legal or not.

While I was at the game live and saw the scary scene unfold up close and personal, it was hard to get a good feel for the hit until I was able to digest it on replay over and over again once I got home.

My take?

I think the hit was dangerous and, in some ways, bush league, but mostly legal.

I don't think Sutton left his feet in making the hit and, for the most part, he seemed to keep his shoulder tucked close to his body when he made contact with Leopold.

Pens' defenseman Brooks Orpik seems to agree, since he was in the minority in the Penguin locker room in saying that he felt the hit was relatively clean.

Sutton is just so big that, by his plain size, his shoulder is going to be more likely to make contact with an opponent's head than if another player was making the same hit -- and even more so if that opponent has his head down, as Leopold did before the play.

In all fairness, I don't think Sutton deserves a shorter end of the stick simply because he's as big as he is.

But what I don't like about the play is that Leopold was still somewhat engaged with another Senators player at the time -- forward Mike Foligno -- when Sutton pinched up at his blueline and took the run at Leopold.

That's a dangerous play every time.

Former Penguin forward Colby Armstrong used to do that a lot. It resulted in a lot of big-time collisions, but won't curry favor and respect around the game.

Here's a look at the hit for anyone who hasn't seen it:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u18CBH2s7-4&feature=player_embedded

After the game, Sutton was questioned hard by Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reporter Ray Fittipaldo about the legality of the collision, and that led to an interesting exchange between the two, as Pens' blogger Brian Metzer summarizes here:

http://www.versus.com/blogs/nhl/sutton-elbow-a-heated-topic/

Leopold did not return to the game, and that left the Penguins with 5 defenseman for the remainder of the contest.

And all 5 of them were outstanding in the last 43 minutes.

Moreover, it wasn't just the blueliners that seemed embattled by the Sutton hit. The whole team seemed that way. They had already upped their physical play, and they just continued to take it to the Senators after Leopold left the ice. They laid 52 total hits on Ottawa in the game, which were 2 more than the season high 50 they put up on the New York Rangers in a regular season overtime win back on March 4 (in a game they also ran up a season high 55 shots).

Talk about body bangin'!!

The Senators, by comparison, had only 31 hits.

Despite that demonstrative advantage, though, the score remained tied at one through the second period and then into the third.

With about 7 mintues to go, Crosby got the second part of his 'hat trick' when he swooped behind Fleury just as a shot from Volchenkov got behind #29 and was skittering towards the goal line and knocked it to safety.

It looked to me like the puck had just about stopped short of the goal line and woudn't have gone in before Crosby got there, but you certainly don't want to leave that biscuit lying around there, so kudos are in order for Sid's 'Save' on that play.

Then, he completed the trifecta and sent the Penguins' fans home happy when, with 4 minutes left, he displayed so much dominance on the puck back and forth behind the Senators' goal, he basically spun the guy checking him -- Speeza -- into the ice like a corkscrew. After leaving Speeza not knowing whether to cry or wind his watch (to quote Pens' Hall of Fame Radio Play-By-Play man Mike Lange) Crosby found Letang wide open at the point.

Tanger made no mistake, finding the top corner with the game winner and giving the Penguins not just a 31-20 shot edge that reflected their overall better play in the game, but a big momentum boost going into game 3 in Ottawa at Scotiabank Place on Sunday night (6:30 PM EST, VERSUS).

Obviously, game 3 is going to be a big one in this series. The Penguins did a much better job defensively in game 2, and showed both the requisite intensity and physicality needed to win. All of that was missing in game 1.

On the other hand, the Senators were that close to pulling out the "W" and going up 2-0 in the series, and if they ever start to get contributions from their three key offensive performers -- Speeza, Daniel Alfredsson and Mike Fisher, all of whom have been MIA thusfar -- Pittsburgh isn't going to have it easy.

On the other hand, the Penguins have plenty of their own players who need to start pinching in offensively, too -- with Alexei Ponikarovsky chief among them -- so it will be interesting to see what happens from here.

The Pens' have been a real strong road team a lot of this year, so we'll see if they can take their first lead of the series in the next 24 hours.

Recap on Monday.

Let's Go Pens!

Friday, April 16, 2010

Will The Real Pittsburgh Penguins Please Stand Up?

And so, on the day before game 2 of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinal tonight between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Ottawa Senators at Mellon Arena (7 PM EST, VERSUS) -- a game I'll be at personally -- all the talk was, perhaps understandably, about how the Penguins are now fully mentally engaged in the series down 1-0 and facing a 2-0 deficit if they don't bring a victory home this evening.

About how they perhaps didn't have enough hate for the Senators before Wednesday.

About how the 'slap in the face' (according to Pascal Dupuis) they got from Ottawa in game 1 will be a wake-up call.

All of which, of course, begs one question.

First, though, here are some pieces on those themes:

http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Hockey/NHL/Playoffs/Pittsburgh/2010/04/15/13603866.html

http://bleacherreport.com/tb/b3G4K

http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Hockey/NHL/Playoffs/Pittsburgh/2010/04/15/13603106-ap.html

Getting back to the transaction ---- the question which all of this begs should be plain.

Why do you need to put one in the loss column to wake up and realize the playoffs require more intensity, more committment, and more pure 'want-to' than you've been showing?

Maybe a team that's been through the Stanley Cup Finals 2 straight seasons and has seen games of higher gravity requires that?

Maybe a team that has been so inconsistent all year -- like Pittsburgh -- needs a test to put out their best hockey? It was my piece in this space about a week before the regular season ended, by the way, that talked about how getting the #4 seed and drawing the Senators in round 1 might very well be the best thing for this year's edition of the Penguins:

http://theboysofwinter.blogspot.com/2010/04/would-penguins-be-better-off-in-post.html

Still, there are clear and obvious risks to playing with fire the way Pittsburgh did to start this series, and I personally wish the Penguins would have had their game on right from the start instead.

Obviously, that wasn't the case on Wednesday night.

So, tonight in game 2, they will consider changes to their lineup, mainly the possibility of scratching forward Ruslan Fedotenko.

Rusty skated on the 5th line in practice yesterday, largely because he was invisible in game 1 -- as he has been most of the season.

Nobody, this writer included, is going to complain much if he takes a seat in the press box this evening -- despite his playoff pedigree.

If he does sit, Mike Rupp will likely take his place and join Craig Adams and Max Talbot on the 4th line.

Schematically, the Penguins need to do a better job of getting pucks behind the Senators defensemen, then retrieving them to create more offensive zone time. Doing that should help them get up their shot total, which was a miserable 21 in game 1 on Monday.

Hell, the offensively-starved Boston Bruins -- the team with the least goals of any team in the entire National Hockey League this season -- put up more shots in one period against the Buffalo Sabres in game 1 of their series last night, 24, than the Penguins put up on an openly nervous Senators' netminder Brian Elliott in their whole game Wednesday.

Another thing the Penguins clearly need is a better night from their goaltender, Marc-Andre Fleury.

Fleury has a history of bouncing back strong from poor performances dating back to the last two post-seasons, and it's not a stretch to say that if he falters again tonight, the Penguins could quickly find themselves in the deep water in this series.

For the Senators, they learned yesterday that they'll be without another top-6 forward for the remainder of this series -- the remainder of the season for them, in fact, however long that may last.

Forward Milan Michalek, who just returned to the lineup a few games ago after missing about 10 contests with a knee injury, tore his ACL in Wednesday's game.

He'll likely be replaced on Ottawa's second line with Mike Fisher and Matt Cullen by 4th liner Nick Foligno.

Foligno has has an up and down season in Canada's Capital, but has contributed in the past at key times for Ottawa, so we'll see what he offers when the chips are down.

Forward Ryan Shannon, with 16 points and a -12 rating in 66 games this seasoan -- and who was a scratch in 9 of the Sens' final 11 regular season games -- is expected to take Folingo's place on their 4th line.

That's it for now. The table is set for tonight.

The Penguins know what they need to do.

They're Out For Justice.

Recap tomorrow.

Let's Go Pens!

Thursday, April 15, 2010

Penguins Give Game 1 To Senators, 5-4

I'm generally not one for anger when it comes to the local hockey club.

Frustration? Maybe.

Disappointment sometimes? Sure.

But I'm here today with a whole host of bitterness after the Pittsburgh Penguins just handed game 1 of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinal Series to the Ottawa Senators last night at Mellon Arena and fell in defeat, 5-4.

It goes beyond anger, really.

It's pure venom.

I've been following this team and the National Hockey League for 26+ seasons and I can't recall ever seeing a team open up the post-season with so little intensity from the drop of the puck in game 1.

Oh sure, things started well enough for the Penguins with Evgeni Malkin's power play goal at the 3 minute mark of the first, when he beat Senators' rookie netminder Brian Elliot on a slapper coming off the near boards.

At that point, Elliott -- starting his first ever NHL playoff game -- was nervous. When asked after the game what he was thinking after Malkin's early marker, you could almost hear the quivering he must have been experiencing at the time:

"Just stay calm, I said to myself."

But did the Penguins shellack him like they should have? Not even close.

After that, someone forgot to tell the Penguins they weren't playing against the defensive juggernaut Montreal Canadiens from the 70's, because that's certainly how Pittsburgh made their canadien counterparts in Ottawa look the rest of the period, not getting another shot for 16 minutes and looking wholeheartedly uninterested in the process.

And that's being charitable.

In the interim, rookie Peter Regin scored for Ottawa at nearly the 9-minute mark, taking advantage of Pens' defenseman Sergei Gonchar staying with him but not tying up his stick and punching home a rebound of a Jason Spezza shot past Pittsburgh netminder Marc-Andre Fleury, and Chris Neil followed that up with a short-side, top corner wrist shot from 20 feet out at the bottom of the right circle about 5 minutes later.

Fleury's gotta have that second one.

Then, Ottawa got a break early in the second period when a power play dump-in by defenseman Chris Campoli took a strange carom off the dasher glass and popped right out in front where Sens' forward Chris Kelly easily deposited the biscuit into the net Fleury vacated when he went behind the cage in anticipation of playing the puck.

At 3-1 Senators, things weren't looking good, but Malkin restored some equilibrium for Pittsburgh when he added another power play tally at the 10-minute mark, but 4 minutes later, the Senators' power play struck again when defenseman Eric Karlsson came in from the right point and deposited a rebound passed a sprawling Fleury to make it, 4-2.

Pittsburgh had to wonder whether things might start going their way when Craig Adams -- who hasn't scored in 111 regular season games dating back to December of 2008 -- broke down the right wing one-on-one before lifting a beautiful backhander top corner past Elliott to make it 4-3 with 15 minutes left in the 3rd.

But as they had all game, the Penguins stumbled again, when former Pen Jarkko Ruutu finished off a 3-on-2 by taking a cross-ice pass and somehow tossing a wrist shot on goal that eluded Fleury for a 5-3 lead.

Another one Fleury has to stop.

Defenseman Alex Goligoski made things interesting when he scored with about 3 minutes left in the game to make it, 5-4, but the Penguins couldn't get the equalizer.

And with that, Ottawa stole home-ice advantage from the Pens and put them in an early hole in the series.

A self-inflicted one, at that. And that's the biggest problem for Pittsburgh following game 1, in my opinion.

If Ottawa deserved to win, I would say so. But the fact of the matter is that the Penguins made them look a whole hell of a lot better than they really are. The Sens didn't play that impressive of a game. They put up only 26 shots and Fleury was awful in the Penguins' goal. At the other end, the Sens' netminder, Brian Elliot, was waiting to be had in this one. He was shaky from the get-go and Pittsburgh failed to test him, putting up only 21 shots of their own.

That figure is 12 off Pittsburgh's season-average and the fact that the Pens beat Elliott on 4 of those tells you all you need to know.

Detroit or Washington would have rang up a dozen on Elliott and the Senators last night.

Unfortunately, they probably would have deposited the same number past Fleury.

Worse, while I think the Senators are an improved team this year both in their own zone and in the neutral zone -- and did an okay job on Pittsburgh defensively last night -- it wasn't like playing the New Jersey Devils out there. I mean, no team in the playoffs has given up more goals than the Senators.

It just seemed to me that the Penguins felt almost no urgency. That's inexcuseable to me.

Were there some good things for Pittsburgh in the game? Yes. Crosby had 3 assists; Malkin was dominant; The power play put forth a good performance. Max Talbot had a strong game and looked like he was back at home again in the playoffs.

Beyond that? Not so much.

Pittsburgh didn't get enough shots, wasn't nearly focused enough (as I have already mentioned ad nauseum), and didn't get strong play from their depth players.

Needles to say, the Penguins better step up their game 3-fold for Friday because they don't want to go down 2-0 in a series again. I won't say it's a must-win for them, but while Pittsburgh overcame those deficits twice in last year's post-season, that's not going to happen every time.

Besides that, those two deficits last season were earned by dropping the first two on the road ... not at home.

Another reason why the Pens need to up their play is because they have to assume Ottawa will.

The Senators didn't play their best game either. While their 3rd line was a force, one of their best players -- Daniel Alfredsson -- was a non-factor, and they took several needless penalties.

(For those who blog for the Senators, by the way, those calls were legit. You can't interfere with players or take your hand off your stick to hold someone).

We'll see what adjustments, if any, Blysma makes with his team for game 2.

In the meantime, it's a bitter Thursday.

More tomorrow.


NOTES:

Surprisingly, LW Chris Kunitz was able to suit up and go for the Pens last night. Early in the day, it didn't look like he was going to play, but he did, and was a forechecking demon as usual. Forward Mike Rupp watched from the press-box to get Kunitz back in the lineup.

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Kunitz Out For Game 1; Other Pre-Game News and Notes

As it turns out, the Pittsburgh Penguins won't be at full-strength to start the playoffs after all.

Pens' LW Chris Kunitz has been ruled out of game 1 against the Ottawa Senators tonight because he's not yet fully recovered from a shoulder injury he sustained a few weeks ago.

Kunitz is one of the Penguins' more physical forwards, and the team certainly will miss his forechecking presence out on the ice tonight, but there's certainly no reason why the Penguins can't prevail without him.

Hopefully #14 will be back in the lineup soon -- if not Friday for game 2, then when the series shifts to Ottawa. I'd rather him be at 100% than risk coming back too early then having to go in and out of the lineup, anyway.

Meanwhile, one of the most interesting things I'll be watching tonight is how the Pens pair up their blueliners.

For most of the stretch run, the pairings have had Sergei Gonchar and Mark Eaton together, Brooks Orpik and Kris Letang together, and Jordan Leopold and Alex Goligoski together.

In practice yesterday, however, Head Coach Dan Bylsma reunited Orpik and Gonchar, as well as Eaton and Letang. Each of those pairs played together last post-season.

Assuming those are the pairings, I'm anxious to see how Bylsma deploys them. Letang indicated in today's Pittsburgh Tribune Review that he'll be given the assignment of shutting down Ottawa forwards Jason Spezza and Daniel Alfredsson.

We'll see. I just as easily could see Orpik and Gonchar being assigned that task. We all know how good Oprik's defensive game usually is and, while Gonchar has had somewhat of an uneven season, he's capable of raising his game and being a 2-way force, as he was almost all of last year after returning from a shoulder injury.

Finally, here are two other pieces I wanted to share, one with another Ottawa perspective, and the series preview from Scott Burnside at ESPN:

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/sports/Past+champions+anything+invincible/2903402/story.html

http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/playoffs/2010/columns/story?columnist=burnside_scott&id=5077270

Game 1 recap tomorrow.

Let's Go Pens!

Conspiracy Theorists Unite

I can't resist addressing this.

The series between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Ottawa Senators hasn't even started yet and the calls of favortism from some in Ottawa's fan base have already started.

I came across a piece from someone who blogs about the Sens and has already wondered whether "the fix is in" for Ottawa in the first round series.

Basically, the author believes that, because the Penguins are one of the league's marquee showpiece teams, there will be questionable penalties that go against Ottawa every game.

You know, because the officials are in on the conspiracy, too.

Well, let's hope the zebras have shredded that memo they got from the league office telling them to call the games in Pittsburgh's favor. After all, Senators' GM Bryan Murray is going to whine about something when things don't go Ottawa's way anyhow. He doesn't need a memo for that.

Suggestions of Pittsburgh favortism have been heard for years, and that speculation is utterly ridiculous. The officials are going to make bad calls. It happens all the time. Some will undoubtedly put Senator players in the box.

But to the extent Ottawa takes more penalties or is seemingly the victim of more calls, it has absolutely nothing to do with any desire to see Sidney Crosby or the Pittsburgh Penguins win.

Those complaints are nothing more than sour gripes born out of jealousy of a team that is full of skilled, talented players who are generally good at putting themselves in situations where penalties need to be taken against them.

Penguin haters need to look beyond their colored glasses and accept the fact that bad calls happen to each team in every game. I mean, really. Drop that "the fix is in" attitude because you team is playing the Penguins. Just play hockey. Every team has obstacles like that to overcome, and the calls almost always eventually even out.

Here's the blog with the piece I'm talking about:

http://www.senstown.com/

More in a bit.

Penguins Sign 2 Prospects

The Pittsburgh Penguins have signed 2 of their prospects to entry-level contracts, the team recently announced.

Defenseman Carl Sneep, a 2006 second round draft pick who just completed his senior season at Boston College (and second consecutive NCAA national title), signed a two year deal, while goaltender Patrick Killeen also inked with the club.

Sneep, 6' 3" and 215 pounds, had career high statistical numbers this year with 11 goals, 18 assists and 27 points, to lead all BC defenseman.

There was some concern that Sneep might not sign with the Pittsburgh organization after some in Sneep's camp felt that the team pressured him to turn pro and join the Pens' minor league affiliate in Wilkes Barre, rather than return to BC for his final season. With Sneep signing on the dotted line, that either must have proved false, or is water under the bridge.

Sneep, a defensive defenseman, will likely start next season on the Baby Pens' blueline to hone his game at that level before he has a realistic crack of making the big club.

Killeen, meanwhile, is already with Wilkes-Barre, but just joined the team after completing his fourth year with the Brampton Battalion of the Ontario Hockey League (OHL), where he had a 2.42 GAA and .913 SV%.

Penguins v. Senators: Eastern Conference Quarterfinals Breakdown/Analysis

As the Pittsburgh Penguins get ready to face-off against the Ottawa Senators tonight in game 1 of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinal at Mellon Arena (7:00 PM EST, VERSUS), there's certainly no lack of playoff familiarity between these two clubs.

This is the 3rd time in the last 4 years the teams have seen each other in the opening round, with the Senators beating the Penguins in 5 games in the 2007 post-season, and Pittsburgh turning things around and sweeping Ottawa in 4 contests in 2008.

It wouldn't surprise me if the series this year broke similarly and wrapped up in 4 or 5 games, but I'd be more shocked if we didn't see a longer battle between these clubs this time around.

As I have in the past, here's my breakdown of the series, focusing on a position-by-position analysis of each team, along with a breakdown of the two clubs' special teams, coaching and intangibles. I'll also identify 3 players to watch from each club and talk about how each team can win the series before offering my predicition.

So, without further adieu:


FORWARDS

In recent years, Ottawa has moved from being more of a top-heavy team to a team with a bit more overall balance. However, they are still led by center Jason Spezza and LW Daniel Alfredsson up front. You can always count on Alfredsson to show up and he's traditionally had success against Pittsburgh. I can't say the same about Spezza, but he has been playing very well lately, with 14 points in his last 8 games. Carrie Underwood's soon-to-be husband (Mike Fisher) will center the second line. Fisher is actually the Senators' top goal scorer this season, with just 25, and is a solid two-way guy up the middle for Ottawa. Milan Michalek is just coming off an injury, so it remains to be seen whether he's at full-strength. He has 22 goals and 34 points in 66 games this season. Beyond those players, the Senators will roll a 3rd line out that includes Chris Kelly, former Penguin Jarkko Ruutu, and rugged Chris Neil. They like to cycle the puck and be physical down low. The Sens will be missing RW Alexei Kovalev for this series, after he suffered a season-ending knee injury about 10 days ago. Losing him certainly hurts Ottawa's depth up front in this series.

The Penguins' are obviously led up front by their Captain, center Sidney Crosby. Crosby hasn't had great overall success against the Senators in his career, but put that on the short list of things the Art Ross, Hart, Rocket Richard, Gold Medal and Stanley Cup winner has not accomplished. Yet. Behind him, you know what you'll get from Evgeni Malkin -- who is heating up at just the right time after a subpar season -- and 3rd line matchup nightmare Jordan Staal. As usual, the big question for the Penguins will be what production they'll get from the guys that patrol the boards for those guys. Veteran Bil Guerin and teammates Alexei Ponikarovsky, Chris Kunitz, Pascal Dupuis and Ruslan Fedotenko will all see some time on the top two lines, although Kunitz remains somewhat of a question mark for game 1 with an ongoing shoulder injury. Tyler Kennedy and Matt Cooke will flank Staal on one of the best 3rd lines in the game. They will probably be matched up often against the Spezza line. Last year's Stanley Cup hero, Max Talbot, may actually be a healthy scratch because of the depth the Penguins have up front with guys like Mike Rupp and Craig Adams. Overall, the Penguins have a good mix of youth, experience, finesse and grit.

ADVANTAGE: Pittsburgh


DEFENSEMEN

The Senators are led on the blueline by their shutdown pair of Anton Volchenkov and Chris Philips. Both are big, physical (although Volchenkov does more of the heavy lifting in this area), and positionally-sound. They'll be matched up against Crosby whenever possible in this series and, as I mentioned, have done well against him in the past. After that, Ottawa will trot out former New York Islander blueliner Andy Sutton and rookie Erik Karlsson. These two rearguards are opposites. Sutton is the big, hulking shot-blocker. Karlsson is the skilled, finesse player. There was a lot of talk before this year's trade deadline about the Penguins aquiring Sutton, so it will be interesting to see him up close in this series. Karlsson has put up a decent 26 points in 60 games as a rookie this season and, while he struggled early this year, he has been especially good down the stretch, putting up 12 points and a plus 7 rating in the Sens' final 10 contests. Ottawa's third pair -- Matt Carkner and Chris Campoli -- isn't going to open up a lot of eyes. Carkner is steady, and Campoli is the puck-mover. Ottawa will be without top-4 blueliner Filip Kuba in this series due to him undergoing back surgery recently, and that's a big loss for them.

Pittsburgh's group of rearguards isn't as physical as Ottawa's, but that doesn't weigh heavily in my mind since every player -- stay-at-home or finesse -- steps up his physical play in the post-season. Brooks Oprik will be counted on to lay the lumber on the Senators' top forwards in this series, but don't underestimate Kris Letang's ability to be physical on the backline, too. Still, the strength of this group for the Penguins is their ability to move the puck. Power play quarterback and blueline leader Sergei Gonchar leads the way for Pittsburgh in this area, but Letang and Alex Goligoski are loaded with skill, too. Even Mark Eaton had 4 goals in last year's post-season. The wild-card of the group is new addition Jordan Leopold, who's been a great fit for the Penguins in Dan Bylsma's system, and has put up 4 goals in his last 9 games. The concern the Pens' defensemen have, though, is in their own end, where they have been inconsistent most of the year. If they cut down on the turnovers, that can make the difference.

I might be inclined to give the Senators the edge here, but the fact remains that, despite their blueline personnel, they have given up more goals this year than any playoff team, and have the worst goal differential of any post-season club at -13. The Penguins, by comparison, are +20 in that category. Therefore, the comparison here has to be a push.

ADVANTAGE: EVEN


GOALTENDING

This is the positional matchup that has the biggest gap, not so much because of the regular season numbers of the two players -- which are very similar -- but because Pens' netminder Marc-Andre Fleury has a Stanley Cup ring, back-to-back Final appearances to his credit, and a history/reputation of ratching up his game when the stakes are the highest, while Senators' rookie goalie Brian Elliot will be suiting up for his first playoff contest.

With 29 wins, a 2.57 GAA and .909 SV%, Elliot is not a guy that will steal games, but he is capable of providing solid netminding. The question will be how he fares in the clutch? Will the Penguins be able to get to him? It's not completely out of the ordinary for rookie goaltenders to make their name in the post-season, but many more fail than succeed at that effort.

For his part, Fleury again hasn't had an overwhelming regular season, and his numbers this year -- a 2.65 GAA and .905 SV% -- were earned honestly. BUT, as his 37 wins attest, he knows what matters the most. Still, Fleury needs to step up his play in the playoffs if the Penguins are going to win this series and move on.

ADVANTAGE: Pittsburgh


SPECIAL TEAMS

Ironically, the special teams units of both clubs finished just about even in both areas. The Pens were 19th on the power play; Ottawa was 21st. The Senators were 8th on the PK; Pittsburgh, 9th. Whichever team is able to improve on the man-advantage and maintain their man-down percentage will gain an edge in this category. For now, it's even.

ADVANTAGE: Even.


COACHING

Senators' coach Cory Clouston has done a good job with his team, in my opinion. He got them to bounce back from missing the post-season last year to a solid 5th overall finish this year. His club can still be streaky at times, though, and he still doesn't have a lot of big league experience on his resume, but the same thing was true of his counterpart behind the Penguins' bench, Dan Bylsma, last year. So, while Clouston's inexperience alone isn't something that can't be overcome, he hasn't gone through the wars yet. Bylsma hasn't been able to help get his team to start steamrolling opponents as he did after taking over last season, but he remains a good strategist and motivator who has proven he can match wits with the best of them. And he has the Cup ring to prove it.

ADVANTAGE: Pittsburgh


INTANGIBLES

Pittsburgh has the home-ice advantage in this series, and they've only lost 2 home games to Eastern Conference teams throughout the last two post-seasons. In its final season, Mellon Arena remains a tough place to play for the opposition. Despite their relative youth, the Penguins also have proven they know what it takes to win in the playoffs. The Senators' have several players who have been through post-season wars, too, but as a collective group, Pittsburgh has the edge in this area.

ADVANTAGE: Pittsburgh


SENATORS' PLAYERS TO WATCH

1) C - Jason Spezza -- If Spezza has a bad series, Ottawa has almost no chance to win. He's that important to their success. He's certainly capable, but has a mixed track record of producing when it matters. He could have trouble in this matchup if he sees a lot of Staal, who's a guy that can skate with him and physically wear him down.

2) C - Mike Fisher -- A big question to be answered in this series is which Fisher will show up -- the one that started the season looking like he deserved a spot on the Canadian Olympic team, or the one that struggled in the 2nd half of the year? The answer could go a long way towards determining the result of this series.

3) D -Erik Karlsson -- While Karlsson has the skill to be an impact player in this series, he remains a rookie, and will likely see a lot of Evgeni Malkin. Can he handle last year's Conn Smythe Trophy winner defensively? A similar player for Pittsburgh, Alex Goligoski, struggled in last year's post-season -- his first.


PENGUINS' PLAYERS TO WATCH

1) C- Evgeni Malkin -- With Crosby getting all the attention from Volchenkov and Philips, the door will be open for Geno to have a real good series and put a below-average regular season (for him) in the past.

2) RW - Alexei Ponikarovsky -- Poni hasn't had a lot of time to get acclimated to playing with Malkin thanks to #71 missing a lot of action down the stretch with injuries, and the former Toronto Maple Leaf has put up only 2 goals since joining Pittsburgh at the trade deadline. How he performs in the post-season could go a long way towards determining whether the Penguins offer the unrestricted free agent a contract this summer. I'm anxious to see how hard he battles out there in the grind of the post-season.

3) D - Jordan Leopold -- The playoffs are the time of year when you get contributions from under-the-radar players, and that's not just limited to forwards. When blueliners give you unexpected offense in the post-season, it goes a long way towards a team's success. Lately, Leopold has shown signs of shedding that label and being someone the Penguins can count on regularly when the stakes go up.


HOW THE SENATORS CAN WIN

Have Speeza at least match the production of Sidney Crosby, get Elliot to stand on his head for a few games, and win the special teams battle.


HOW THE PENGUINS CAN WIN

Have Malkin explode offensively, get timely scoring from its support players, and be smart with the puck in their own zone.


PREDICTION

I don't think this series will be short. Many observers feel the Penguins are due to fall since they've played a lot of hockey the last few years and may be mentally or physically fatigued. When asked whether that was the case, Crosby said simply, "no way." While I think Ottawa is a solid opponent for Pittsburgh and will force them to be sharp or go home early, I don't believe the Senators have the overall depth or goaltending in a 7-game series to defeat a Pittsburgh team that is now back in its post-season element.

PENGUINS IN SIX.