Penguins v. Canadiens: Eastern Conference Seminfinals Breakdown/Analysis

It's funny how things can change in a matter of minutes in life.

One minute you're cruising along in your car and the next minute another driver wrecks into you and makes your world miserable for the next several months.

One minute you arrive at your girlfriend's house to surprise her and the next you find her treating another guy like he's an amusement park ride.

One minute you're rooting for a team with fervor in the hope they knock off your arch rivals so you can enjoy their playoff misery and the next you spew venom and hatred for that same team because they now stand in the way of your favorite local hockey club in the next round.

And so that brings us to the Montreal Canadiens.

After being the biggest Habs fan on Wednesday night when the closing seconds ticked off the game 7 clock in their eliminatation of the Washington Capitals from the post-season, I immediately reverted back to my old ways of hating Les Canadiens and their 24 franchise Stanley Cups almost as much as any other team in the league when that clock hit 0:00.

That hatred is likely to be in full force over the next few weeks as the Penguins and Canadiens face off in the post-season for only the second time in the storied history of their respective franchises.

Perhaps the most common question I've been asked since Wednesday night when the Penguins learned that Montreal would be their opponent is this:

"If Montreal shut Washington down offensively, won't they automatically do the same thing to the Penguins?"

In my opinion, that's an easy question to answer.

And the answer is no.

For more on why that's true, read on in my series breakdown. As usual, I will focus on a position-by-position analysis of each team, and examine how the special teams, coaching and intangibles of each club stack up against each other. I'll also identify 3 players to watch from each club and offer what I think each team needs to do to win the series. Following that will be my series prediction.

So, without further adieu ...

FORWARDS

If it's one thing about Montreal's group up front, it's that they are little on size and big on heart. All of their skill players -- Mike Cammalleri, Brian Gionta, Scott Gomez, Tomas Pekanec and Andrei Kostitsyn -- are the diminutive sort who skate well and scoot around the ice with fairly good speed. They will compete for pucks, but aren't physical and therefore, aren't going to make life miserable in front of the opposing goaltender. Still, they generate sufficient offense for the team -- especially Cammalleri, who had a fantastic first round against Washington with 5 goals and 10 points. The problem for Montreal is that they don't have good depth up front. After that group, the talent and skill level drops off considerably, with guys like Dominic Moore, Travis Moen, Glen Metropolit and Maxim Lapierre filling out their forward ranks. Those guys aren't high on the name-recognition list, to say the least. While serviceable, the bottom-6 Montreal forwards are pretty much what you'd expect for the playoff team who entered the field with the worst record of any post-season club.

Pittsburgh, on the other hand, can compete on the top end of their forward group, and they have stronger depth players throughout their forward ranks. Of course, Sidney Crosby -- leading the playoff field with 14 points -- and Evgeni Malkin still lead the way offensively for them, but guys like Bill Guerin and Chris Kunitz had strong first round series' against the Ottawa Senators. Each of those guys pitched in 6 points, and third liners like Matt Cooke and Pascal Dupuis each put up 4 points in round one, as well. The Penguins also have a big advantage on the third line in this series, which means Jordan Staal has a good chance of having a much greater impact in this round than he did against Ottawa, when his play was generally regarded as below average.

ADVANTAGE: Pittsburgh


DEFENSEMEN

The Canadiens do have a bona-fide all-star on their blueline in rearguard Andre Markov. Markov missed several games against the Penguins this year in the regular season, and Pittsburgh certainly made no apologies for that because Markov is a real offensive threat on the point with a big shot. Roman Hamrlik is another generally steady veteran presence for the Canadiens on the blueine, as is Jaroslav Spacek, but Spacek only played 3 games in the opening round against the Capitals due to injury. Losing him hurt Montreal in that series, but they got a big round from Josh Gorges and former Penguin Hal Gill to make up for it. Those two make up what the Canadiens call their 'shutdown pair', so it's not unreasonable to think they'll be matched up a lot against Crosby's line in this series. Beyond that, the Canadiens have a very questionable third pair in rookie Pk Subban and Marc-Andre Bergeron. Bergeron, in particular, is not very reliable. He mainly plays only on the power play for the Habs at this point. Why? He was a -8 in the first round. That says all you need to know.

The Penguins are a more well-rounded bunch on their backline, with Sergei Gonchar leading the offense and partner Brooks Orpik leading the defense. Kris Letang had a strong first series against the Senators with 2 goals and solid 2-way play, and Mark Eaton brings a reliable presence when he's on the ice. Alex Goligoski had a better first round than many people realize, and his partner, Jay McKee was mostly (but not always) steady, if not unspectacular. McKee brings good penalty killing and shot-blocking experience to the Pittsburgh blueline corps, though. The wild-card is two-way reargauard and veteran Jordan Leopold, who is still recovering from suffering a concussion he suffered in game 2 of the Senators' series and, while he won't be ready to start round 2, Leopold will probably return at some point during the series.

ADVANTAGE: Pittsburgh


GOALTENDING

This may be the most-watched position in this series.

Montreal Canadiens' netminder Jaroslav Halak played out of his mind in the last three games of the first round against Washington, allowing only 3 goals on 134 shots. He was the biggest reason why Montreal advanced and needs to be the biggest factor in this series if the Canadiens are going to have a chance at their second straight momentuous upset. Halak always has been capable of stealing games -- which is exactly what he and his save percentage of almost 94% did to the Capitals -- but the curious thing is that Halak was not only pulled from a game in the Washington series, but was BENCHED for the next contest. I doubt that will happen in this series again, but he is capable of having really poor outings at times.

Some would say the same thing about the guy who will be manning the cage at the other end, Penguin goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury. Clearly, Fleury has the big-game history and experience over Halak, but Fleury was inconsistent for the final 6 weeks of the regular season and wasn't really the reason the Penguins won a single game in their opening round 6-game victory over Ottawa. He finished that series with below average numbers (2.75 GAA and a save % of 89), too. Pittsburgh needs Fleury to step up and win a few games for them at some point, and there may be nights in this series when he'll have to match Halak save-for-save to keep the Penguins in it.

ADVANTAGE: Even


SPECIAL TEAMS

Pittsburgh's power play continued its significantly improved play, clicking at 25% in the first round and ranking 5th of all playoff teams. Montreal hit at a respectable 20% level, too, however. While those units performed relatively comparably in round 1, it is the penalty kililng units that sets these teams apart. The Penguins were next to last against Ottawa in the first round, killing off man-advantage opportunities at only a 68% clip -- next to last in the playoff field. Montreal, meanwhile, was stellar in the first round killing off power plays by the team with, far and away, the best power play in the league this year. Behind defensive whiz assistant coach Kirk Muller, they let up only 1 PP goal to Washington in 33 chances. That's going to have to continue for them to have a chance in this series.

ADVANTAGE: Montreal


COACHING

The Canadiens' have an experienced bench boss -- Jacques Martin -- and he did a great job in the first round getting the matchups he was looking for, even on the road. Martin is generally a defensive coach who asks his players to clog the neutral zone, chip pucks out of their end, and quickly counter-attack as a group with speed and short passes.

The Penguins, meanwhile, trot out a coach who has yet to lose an NHL playoff series in 5 tries, and continues to show a deft ability to calmly steer the Pittsburgh playoff ship through sometimes stressful playoff waters. Blymsa also does a pretty good job with matchups, so watching what he and Martin do against one another will be one of the more interesting subplots of this series.

ADVANTAGE: Even


INTANGIBLES

There's no doubt the Canadiens have to feel a bit emblazoned by their 'shock-the-world' victory over the Presidents' Trophy winning Capitals in the first round, so they should be able to start the series in full-playoff mode. Whether that lasts or not remains to be seen, but one thing doesn't -- Montreal won't be intimidated by the fact that they don't have home ice advantage in this series. They won 3 games on the road in round 1 and, behind Halak, can frustrate a team in their own building.

Pittsburgh was able to rest and recuperate from a physical series and shouldn't be anywhere near as drained as Montreal is after the emotional baggage they now carry after the Capitals' series. The Penguins have to start better in games, though, and that danger is particularly acute against a team like Montreal that's going from one series right to another. And, while -- like Montreal -- Pittsburgh won 3 games on the road in the first round to participate in a trend of road teams winning league-wide this playoff year, you can't say that having home ice is anything but an advantage.

ADVANTAGE: Even


CANADIENS' PLAYERS TO WATCH

1) LW Mike Cammalleri -- I talked earlier about how dangerous Cammalleri was in round 1, and there's no question the Penguins will have to watch him closely any time he's in the offensive zone. If he doesn't produce for Montreal, though, the Canadiens will struggle to score goals. He's proven to be that important to them.

2) G Jaroslav Halak -- Halak carried his team through most of the first round against Washington. Can he continue his stellar play? For Pittsburgh to beat him, they have to crash the net, create traffic in front of him, and get pucks high.

3) D Hal Gill -- Gill was great in the first round, showing everyone why Montreal was happy to sign him away from the Penguins after last season. The USS Gill is a defensive force around the blueline and on the penalty kill because of his reach, but just like while he was in Pittsburgh, Gill remains a potential defensive liability if you can cycle the puck down low and get him running around in his own zone, simply because he doesn't have the foot speed.


PENGUINS' PLAYERS TO WATCH

1) C Sidney Crosby -- Sid The Kid was the best player in the playoffs in round 1. He dominated the team with maybe the best defensive blueliners in the Eastern Conference. He looks focused and determined to be not just the youngest Captain to lead his team to the Stanley Cup, but the youngest Captain to lead his club to back-to-back Stanley Cups. Plus, he has the added incentive of playing against the team he grew up rooting for in this series.

2) D Kris Letang -- Letang had a subpar regular season for Pittsburgh, but he has upped his game so far in the post-season, demonstrating the strong two-way game that everyone knows he's capable of. Letang, another Canadien, could have a huge series for the Penguins.

3) RW Max Talbot -- Like Letang, Talbot didn't meet expectations this year in the regular season. Unlike Letang, though, he wasn't just subpar -- he was awful. BUT, when the stakes go up, like they do in the post-season, Talbot consistently raises his game. He was one of the best Penguin players in their first round series win over the Senators, and looks like he's just settling back into his grove.


HOW THE CANADIENS CAN WIN

Hope Halak continues his Ken Dryden impersonation, win the special teams battle, and get unexpected offensive contributions from someone not in their top 5 forwards.


HOW THE PENGUINS CAN WIN

Not get burned by Montreal's transition game, create offense down low, and watch Crosby continue to dispel any remaining myth that there's a defenseman or team out there who can contain him.


PREDICTION

Despite their seeding and the fact that they won only 1 of 4 games against Pittsburgh during the regular season, Montreal will pose some challenges for the Penguins. They are likely to have a boost early in this series coming off their big victory over Washington, but don't overlook how much that probably took out of them. That's likely to show up in the long run, especially when Montreal's overall depth can't match that of Pittsburgh. Moreover, while Montreal does have the personnel to defend a team that likes to attack through the neutral zone like Washington, they have yet to show they can defend well against a team like the Penguins that know how to generate offense off the cycle and once already in the offensive zone. Finally, while Halak still has the potential to be a stopper for the Canadiens in this series, it's probably just as reasonable to think he will be unable to sustain that level of play. He was out of this world and Montreal moved on by only a single goal. If he falters, they probably won't fare all that well.

The Canadiens would have stood a better chance against Pittsburgh had they seen them in the first round. They upset the Capitals in that round before Washington had a chance to get their feet under them. Montreal won't have that luxury against a Penguin team which crossed that bridge and now appears to be back and ready to compete in the way they do best.

PENGUINS IN SIX.