Penguins v. Hurricanes: Eastern Conference Finals Breakdown/Analysis

As the Pittsburgh Penguins prepare to begin their Eastern Conference Final tomorrow evening against the Carolina Hurricanes in game 1 at Mellon Arena (7:30 PM EST), the team faces a set of circumstances somewhat foreign to them the last 3 playoff years.

They are facing a team they have no real history with.

No real rivalry.

No real hatred.

At least not until the end of the first period tomorrow.

While in the last several seasons, the Penguins have faced an array of teams they love to hate -- the Philadelphia Flyers, the New York Rangers, The Washington Capitals, even the Ottawa Senators -- they are now left to square up against a Carolina squad who they've never met in the post-season.

If this were a first round series, the Penguins might be excused for lacking motivation.

With a Stanley Cup Final berth on the line, however, don't expect that to be a problem.

As usual, I'm going to break down the matchup between the Hurricanes and Penguins, focusing on a position-by-position analysis first. Then, I'll identify 3 players to watch in the series for each team, and talk about how each team can win the series. Finally, I'll offer my series prediction.


FORWARDS

Carolina brings a mostly lunch bucket group into this matchup with the Penguins, but that doesn't mean they should be taken lightly. They are a mostly non-descript group, but do have decent depth. Center -- and brother of current Penguin Jordan -- Eric Staal paces the way for the Hurricanes. He has 9 goals and 13 points to lead Carolina in scoring this post-season to-date. Matt Cullen, Jussi Jokinen and veteran/face-off ace Rod Brind 'Amour also patroll the middle for the Hurricanes. Jokinen is Carolina's second leading scorer with 6 goals (including 3 game-winners) and 10 points. On the wing, the Hurricanes bring speed and grit. Ray Whitney and Sergei Samsonov fit the former bill, with the likes of Scott Walker, Chad Larose adding the edge along the wall. Eric Cole, who played on Carolina's 2006 cup winning team and who rejoined the squad after being re-acquired at the trade deadline this season, brings both, but has struggled mightily in the playoffs this year so far, with only 2 assists in 14 games. Overall, though, with Carolina, it's more about quantity up-front than it is about quality.

There's no doubt that the Penguins can match Carolina's speed and grit, while at the same time adding a lot of star power with guys like Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. Crosby leads the playoffs in scoring right now and is playing the best hockey of his career -- and that's no small compliment. Malkin is 3rd in scoring in the post-season and remains capable of winning games by himself. While LW Chris Kunitz has been a relative disappointment so far with zero goals this playoff season and only 1 in his last 30 career playoff games, the Penguins have gotten a good deal of secondary scoring from guys like RW Bill Guerin and LW Ruslan Fedotenko, with 5 and 4 goals, respectively. Meanwhile, guys like Matt Cooke, Tyler Kennedy and Max Talbot and Staal have also had stretches where they've contributed, while doing a great job of controlling the puck and being aggressive in the opposition's defensive end. They'll need to do more of that in this series.

ADVANTAGE: Pittsburgh


DEFENSEMEN

Carolina has some better personnel on the backline than what the Penguins saw against the Washington Capitals, but again -- there are no big names here. Joni Pitkanen is Carolina's #1 defenseman and logs the most minutes, but will get help from the likes of Tim Gleason, Joe Corvo and Denis Seidenberg -- who round out Carolina's top 4. What's interesing about this group is that all are known to be somewhat more offensive-minded than defensive-minded. In other words, like the Capitals' defense, they aren't known to be very physical. They are more mobile as a group, though, and will battle, so they should be able to keep up with the Penguins' forwards. Frantesik Kaberle and Niclas Wallin fill out the top 6. Wallin is a warrior with a Stanley Cup, while Kaberle only recently got into the lineup after Anton Babchuk -- who had double digit goals this year -- was benched for poor play.

The Penguins' defense continues to be underrated, in this writer's opinion. They get it done defensively with the likes of Rob Scuderi and Hal Gill, both of whom were matched up against Capitals' RW Alexander Ovechkin in round 2 and did a pretty good job against him, shutting him down on many occasions despite his scoring totals overall in the series. On the offensive end, the Penguins' will again trot out their best 2-way pair of Sergei Gonchar and Brooks Oripk. Gonchar, who missed games 5 and 6 (and most of game 4) against Washington after his knee-on-knee collision with Ovechkin but game back for a game 7, practiced today and looked good doing it. He has improved a good deal since Wednesday and should be in the lineup for game 1. Mark Eaton and Kris Letang make up the other pairing and shoudn't be overlooked. Eaton is playing some strong two way hockey and, surprisingly, has as many goals in the post-season -- 4 -- as he did all regular season long, while Letang has almost as many points himself (9) as the Hurricanes 2nd leading team scorer in the post-season. Neither should be overlooked and have given the Pittsburgh defense a more dangerous dimension than they had in their Stanley Cup run last season.

ADVANTAGE: Pittsburgh


GOALTENDING

Hurricanes' netminder Cam Ward is, undoubtedly, the best goaltender the Penguins have faced in the post-season so far. Ward, remember, led Carolina to the Stanley Cup in 2006 and got a Conn Smythe trophy as playoff MVP for his trouble in doing so. He has yet to lose a playoff series. Ward is a stand up goaltender who's pretty technically sound but capable of the spectacular save. He has a 2.22 GAA and .927 SV % while going 8-6 thusfar this post-season.

His counterpart in Pittsburgh, Marc-Andre Fleury, doesn't measure up statistically with Ward, but is just as capable of making the timely, spectacular save and leading his team to victories. He's 8-5 with a 2.72 GAA and a .901 SV %. Fleury was oustanding in round 1 against the Philadelphia Flyers, but had an average series against Washington's stable of sharpshooters in round 2. He will need to up his play to match what Ward is likely to do in this one.

ADVANTAGE: Carolina


POWER PLAY

The Penguins enter the Eastern Conference Finals with a near 20% success rate on the man-advantage. That's a bit higher than their regular season average, and good for just above the middle of the post-season pack in 7th spot. Pittsburgh went 5 for its last 10 chances in their series against Washington, however, and put up at least one goal in the last 5 games of the series, so they're warming up at the right time. Plus, with their veteran, no-panic presence, Gonchar, getting back to full-health, the Pens' have the ability to make a difference on the power play in this series.

Carolina, meanwhile, has one of the worst power plays in the post-season, at about 10% and ranking 14th. One of the reasons for that is that they lack the game breaking presence up front. They also have been hurt by Cole's struggles thusfar, since he's their power forward and the guy that needs to create havoc in front. To make up for these deficiences, Carolina will use their defenseman a lot on the power play in the hope of generating more offense. Corvo and Pitkanen are both capable of getting the puck on the net, and Pittsburgh will have to watch them.

ADVANTAGE: Pittsburgh


PENALTY KILLING

In contrast to its power play, the Hurricanes' penalty killers have been outstanding in the post-season thusfar, killing off about 90% of their opponents' man-advantage opportunites. Boston -- a group that has a diverse and talented power play -- scored only 2 goals with the extra player in all 7 games against the Hurricanes in round 2. Carolina employs an aggressive penalty kill that will challenge a Pittsburgh power play that will need to emphasize quick puck movement and one-time shots (are you reading Kris Letang??) if it's going to have any success.

The Penguins have done a fair job on the PK this post-season, again checking in around 7th overall, at about 81%. If they stick to what they've been doing well, which is not taking too many penalties and clogging passing lanes, they should up those figures against a Hurricanes power play that, as set forth above, has just been miserable this playoff year so far.

ADVANTAGE: Carolina


COACHING

Carolina and Pittsburgh followed similar coaching paths this year in that both teams had to fire their existing coach more than half-way through the season. Both Carolina GM Jim Rutherford and Pittsburgh GM Ray Shero obviously made the right calls as veteran coach Paul Maurice and rookie coach Dan Bylsma led their respective squads on late season tears that carried each team to a playoff berth. Now, they both face off for the right to play for Lord Stanley's chalice.

Maurice can be a fiery guy at times, but he knows the game and is a good motivator who his players trust and respond to. He doesn't match lines or defense pairings a great deal -- perhaps because he doesn't have the personnel to do that -- but instead chooses to roll what he has. Maurice believes in his players and gets good results from them.

Now 2-0 in playoff series' at the NHL level, Bylsma has shown a steely resolve when things get tough and the ability to play tactician with his matchups. Like Maurice, his players believe in him, respect him and respond for him. There's probably no better quality than remaining calm in the face of adversity and sticking with what you believe in. The Penguins have done that thusfar and have reaped the rewards from mid-February on. Bylsma deserves a lot of credit for that, but each round is a new proving ground for him.

ADVANTAGE Carolina


INTANGIBLES

Carolina got a break from the league when the NHL scheduled many extra days off during the course of this series, since they just came off their 2nd straight 7-game set before barely advancing. In fact, if you go back to the Hurricanes' prior 2 playoff series' before this year, back in 2006, both of their last 2 series then went 7 games also. They've shown a lot of character in those situations, but it cuts both ways -- they also haven't shown the ability to dominate and roll over an opponent. Still, they have 10 players on their current outfit who were with them in 2006 and that veteran experience cannot be understated.

The Penguins have home-ice advantage in this series and, in addition, have another advantage in that they have the best player in the game on their team in Crosby. Worse news for Carolina is that Crosby -- long known as one of the most driven, competitive players in the game -- is showing a determination not ever seen from him before. It's going to take a lot to knock out him and his squad -- a Penguin team that has a mix of veteran leadership, youth, and its own history of clutch play.

ADVANTAGE: Pittsburgh


PLAYERS TO WATCH

CAROLINA:

1) Eric Staal, C -- Staal is the catlyst for the Hurricanes. He's a load to stop in the offensive zone and in the neutral zone and as he goes, Carolina goes. If he's not able to produce consistently against Pittsburgh, it's hard to see how the Hurricanes can prevail in this series. The Penguins will have the luxury of putting out their top defensive pairing of Gill and Scuderi against him since Carolina really doesn't have any other big offensive threats. On top of that, Jordan Staal may draw the assignment of trying to check his brother up front, and that will be a matchup worth watching.

2) Cam Ward, G -- Ward saw some good talent bearing down on him in the first two rounds against New Jersey and Boston, but nothing like what the Penguins can throw at him. He'll have his hands full against Pittsburgh, but the one thing he will do is make the Penguins work for their goals. However, he won't have a lot of help from a less-than-physical defense, so if the Penguins are able to get traffic in front of him and get pucks to the net, they should be able to beat him. Ward showed during several games in the first two rounds that he can't always shut the door.

3) Jussi Jokinen, C -- Waived by the lowly Tampa Bay Lightning earlier this season, Jokinen has been Carolina's most clutch player in the post-season so far. He scored a late goal in round 1 to help the Hurricanes beat New Jersey in game 3, and then to tie the score late in game 7 before Staal won it, and had another overtime marker against Boston. The puck seems to find him around the net, and that's because he usually has a good nose for it. Pittsburgh will need to know where he is at all times, especially when the Hurricanes are pressing for a goal or looking to break a tie late.

PITTSBURGH:

1) Tyler Kennedy, RW -- this series will be, no pun intended, 'Tyler-made" for Kennedy's game. It will be fast and up-tempo, and he's due to produce for Pittsburgh after having a few goals in the first series against the Flyers, but none against Washington in round 2. He'll likely see a lot of ice playing on Staal's line trying to shut down Hurricanes' center Eric Staal, and should be able to generate offense on the counterattack.

2) Bill Guerin, RW -- after starting a bit slow this year, with only 2 goals coming in 1 game during the Pens' entire 6-game series victory over Philadelphia in the first round, Guerin started to get things rolling more in the last 4 to 5 games of the Penguins' series against the Capitals. He's unleashing that big shot of his more and more, and will be a key to the success of the Pens' power play. While he's going to spend a lot of time trying to keep Ward from seeing the puck on the man-advantage, look for Pittsburgh to try and free him up to shoot more in those situations in this series.

3) Sergei Gonchar, D -- Gonchar is a big key to this series for Pittsburgh. He's always such a key guy for them because of his strong 2-way play and veteran presence, but he'll be even more important in this series because of his patience on the power play against a penalty killing unit that will pressure him every chance they get. Of course, all of that makes it even more critical that he continue his recovery from the upper leg contusion he suffered in round 2. It's a good thing for Pittsburgh that, by all accounts, Gonchar is rounding back into full health.


HOW THE HURRICANES CAN WIN

If Carolina can keep the Penguins' power play at bay, get timely saves from Ward when needed and keep the series' close enough to go 7 games, Carolina's chances of pulling the upset in this series go up dramatically.


HOW THE PENGUINS CAN WIN

If Pittsburgh continues to get exemplary play from Sidney Crosby and contributions from his supporting cast, and continues to dictate the pace to Carolina most of the series, they should have an opportunity by the end of this month to avenge last year's Stanley Cup Final loss.


PREDICTION

For as good as the Penguins' were in their run to the Stanley Cup Final last season, they appear more galvanized this playoff season. They've overcome more adversity this post-season already and show no signs of stopping. Couple those things with the best and most determined player in the game, and the fact that the Penguins also have a guy named Malkin, the scales just tip too much towards the Penguins in this one.

PENGUINS IN FIVE.