Monday, March 1, 2010

Trade Deadline 2010: Will The Penguins Make A Move? Is Gonchar Suddenly On The Block?

For me, the question is who and when, not if.

As the Pittsburgh Penguins and GM Ray Shero are approaching 48 hours to this year's trade deadline, fans and observers everywhere are wondering what's going to happen in Penguin nation.

In each of his years at the helm, Shero has made several trade deadline deals, and all had a meaningful impact on the club down the stretch and into the postseason.

In 2007, he brought in Gary Roberts and Georges Laraque.

In 2008, he scored the blockbuster of the deadline, landing Marion Hossa from Atlanta with just minutes before the 3 PM cutoff, and added defenseman Hal Gill, too.

In 2009 (last year), Bill Guerin was added, as was Chris Kunitz, who was acquired about a week or so before the deadline.

This year, Shero will again make a move, but where is it going to come and at who's expense???

At this stage, I'm hearing that Shero is discussing potential deals with several teams.

And not just of the deadline-rental player variety. There may be a longer-term deal to be had involving a bigger name or two.

While I plan to get up a post later about who the Penguins are looking hard at, let's talk about who Penguin fans may not get to see again as early as tomorrow night's home game against the Buffalo Sabres.

At this point, any of the following players from the big league club may be on the move out of town:

Ruslan Fedotenko
Craig Adams
Pascal Dupuis
Chris Kunitz
Max Talbot
Eric Godard
Alex Goligoski
Jay McKee
Mark Eaton
Kris Letang
Sergei Gonchar

And that's not including the prospects and draft picks that Shero is likely to be willing to move.

On the pick end, while it's highly unlikely Shero will move a first rounder, 2nd and 3rd round picks are certainly on the table.

On the prospect end, I think guys in Wilkes-Barre like Dustin Jeffrey, Ryan Bayda, Tim Wallace and others should keep their phones close at hand in the next 48 hours.

The biggest issue Shero is facing right now, not surprisingly, is trying to find additional cap room. For that reason, you may see one or two of the players above moved for a draft pick.

Fedotenko is the most likely guy to go, given his continued substandard regular season performance. Despite his history -- both here and elsewhere --as a strong playoff performer, I think the Penguins are ready to part ways with him, and there is some interest in his services around the league from playoff teams or bubble teams looking for veteran experience down the stretch.

You can count the Phoenix Coyotes and Nashville Predators among those expressing strong interest in Fedotenko.

Jay McKee may be the next most likely player to be moved. Nashville likes him as well, and the Chicago Blackhawks have long been rumored to be taking a long look at McKee.

While I think it's more unlikely than likely that Dupuis or Talbot will be moved, Shero is getting inquiries on both -- Talbot, in particular, which can't be surprising given his reputation around the league as a clutch, versatile player and great locker room presence.

Let's talk about 3 others on the list -- Gonchar, Letang and Goligoski.

Before yesterday, I wouldn't have had Gonchar on this list; however, things have happened within the last 24 hours which have changed that.

Everyone knows that Gonchar, 35 now but soon to be 36, will be an unrestricted agent this summer.

Recently, Shero offered Gonchar a few different contract proposals -- one that was 2 years and just under 10 million, and another that was 3 years and about 12 million.

In the last 24 hours, it was revealed that Gonchar's agent, J.P. Barry, counteroffered with 2 proposals of his own -- one for 3 years at 15 million and 4 years at 18.25 million.

And, with that, Shero decided to stop negotiating.

Now, Shero and Barry both have indicated that they will resume negotiations after the season and simply want to focus on the team's quest to win the Stanley Cup again, but that talk aside, it's fair to consider whether or not the Penguins will be able to re-sign Gonchar at something resembling those prices, or whether they will end up losing him to unrestricted free agency on July 1 without any return whatsoever.

I don't think Shero needs that consideration on his plate right now, but it is what it is.

And at least he knows where Gonchar's camp is.

I believe it's unlikely that Gonchar will be moved ..... BUT, I think it's incumbent on Shero to at least consider the possibility at this point, given Gonchar's contract demands.

In the salary cap era, you can't just lose players of Gonchar's caliber without getting anything in return.

Sure, you save the salary, but the league is too competitive to think that letting a player of Gonchar's caliber walk without getting a player of some kind in return would do anything other than hurt the club.

Certainly, if his proposals are any indication, Gonchar doesn't appear to be offering much of a 'hometown' discount to the Penguins. In fact, there is NO discount with his 3-year offer, which would pay him exactly what he's earning now, and that suggests a belief that Gonchar can make at least that much -- or perhaps more -- on the open market.

Of course, Gonchar isn't obligated to give the Penguins any discount, but 'hometown' discount or not, there's no question that the Penguins are looking at #55 to take a lesser salary on any new deal. Not necessarily a lot less, but still less.

It's going to be interesting to see what comes out of this. There's no questioning how valuable Gonchar still is to the Penguins, both on the ice and in the locker room.

There's also no question that Gonchar still has a lot of value around the league, and while logic suggests he should still be able to perform at a pretty high level a few years from now, you don't know for sure.

And all of this is made more interesting by the contract status of one of his teammates.

Which, of course, brings us to Kris Letang -- another guy on my list above.

Like with Gonchar, I think it's unlikely Shero will move Letang. But Letang is a restricted free agent this summer and, while everyone knows Tanger will get a raise, his camp and Shero haven't even really done any negotiating thusfar, so it's hard to know exactly where things will go with him.

For that reason alone, Shero is listening to other teams asking about him.

As he is -- and probably with more earnest -- as it relates to the final guy I want to talk about.

Alex Goligoski.

GoGo has struggled in the last several months, but there remains good upside with him as a solid offensive producer in the league. For that reason -- and because of the Penguins' organizational depth on the blueline -- Goligoski may be the Penguins most valuable trading chip at the deadline, which is probably why Shero has talked with several teams about him.

If the Penguins are to make a longer-term deal. Goligoski is likely to be the centerpiece of it on their end.

I'll have more later today as we count down to the deadline on who the Penguins are looking at from other clubs. Shero is talking with other teams right now and I don't think I would rule out a trade from him even today. We'll see.

More later.

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