2010 Pittsburgh Penguins Season Preview

It seems like ages ago when we last saw a meaningful hockey game around here, doesn't it?

Well, that's because it was ages ago.

About 5 months, in fact, which is when the doors to Mellon Arena closed forever with a sudden thud following a miserable 5-2 defeat to the Montreal Canadiens in Game 7 of the teams' Eastern Conference Semifinal series last year.

But finally, it's a hockey night in Pittsburgh again, as the Penguins open up the 2010 regular season -- and their sparkling $321 million dollar facility, the CONSOL Energy Center -- against the arch-rival Philadelphia Flyers in front of a national television audience and red carpet (literally) tonight (7:00 PM EST, VERSUS).

The Penguins had an eventful offseason for sure, with many players coming and going, and one key player hitting the injury shelf a bit unexpectedly. 

But are they in a better position to recapture their success of 2009 (or even 2008) and challenge for Lord Stanley?

Let's take a look at the roster and examine the group position-by-position.  After that I'll give you 3 signs that the season is going right.  And 3 that will show it's not.  Then, I'll predict their regular season finish.


FORWARDS

Gone from last season's group up front is grizzled veteran and first line RW Bill Guerin, who recently failed to stick with the Flyers on a tryout, as well as mostly 2nd line underachievers Ruslan Fedotenko and Alexei Ponikarovsky, who are now with the New York Rangers and Los Angeles Kings, respectively.

Would you believe Ruslan Fedotenko actually led the Rangers in pre-season scoring with 6 points?

Me neither.  Isn't that about the same number of points he had all of last year with us?

Anyway, the Penguins will also be missing Selke Trophy finalist and spetacular 2-way center Jordan Staal to start the season, as he continues to recover from multiple off-season surgeries to deal with the lacerated tendon he suffered in the top of his foot in game 1 of the 2nd round series against the Canadiens -- as well as to deal with the infection which resulted after-the-fact.

The team originally expected Staal to be available for the start of the regular season.  Then, they forecast that he would miss the first few weeks of the regular season.  Realistically -- given that he hasn't really been able to skate or train intensely yet -- Gronk probably won't return to the team until mid-November.

At the earliest.

In the place of these guys slide two free agents -- Mike Comrie, formerly of the Edmonton Oilers, and Aaron Asham, formerly of the Flyers -- and two players who spent most of last season at Wilkes-Barre, Mark Letestu and Eric Tangradi.

Of course, that assumes Tangradi returns after the bizarre transactional moves that took place surrounding him yesterday.  Read my post below this one for more on that.

In any event, Letestu had an outstanding camp, showing exemplary two-way play, and deserves his roster spot.  Tangradi also had a good camp, spending a lot of time on the 2nd line and a lot of time staking his 6' 4" frame in front of the net on the power play.

We all know what Asham brings from across the Commonwealth -- grit, sandpaper, and fair hands. 

Meanwhile, Comrie has been nothing but an offensive revelation in the pre-season, scoring 4 goals in 5 games and showing instant chemistry centering the line Staal was supposed to lock down -- the #2 unit with Evgeni Malkin (and Tangradi). 

Can Comrie keep up that pace when things get tougher in the regular season?  Time will tell, but if he can, it will go a long way towards giving the Penguins greater offensive depth up front -- depth many think they don't have.

Let's hope Hilary is keeping him happy at night.

Getting back to Malkin, he led the Penguins in scoring in the pre-season and just seems invigoriated this year.  He's been galloping all over the ice and oozing his offensive talent -- a stark contrast to the way he played most of last year when the former Art Ross Trophy and Conn Smythe Trophy winner struggled and performed below his standards. 

If he returns to form, look out.

Elsewhere up front, the Penguins will fill their bottom 2 lines with guys that are tough to play against.  Max Talbot, Mike Rupp, Matt Cooke, and Craig Adams all fit that description, and will all probably be lineup regulars.  We all know what they bring.  Rupp, with 13 goals, and Cooke, with 15, are coming off strong season, so the onus will be on them to duplicate their efforts from last year.  Adams doesn't hit the scoresheet much, but isn't asked to, either.  With him, you know you're going to get a good penalty killer and a smart, physical defensive game night in and night out, and that's all you need.

Max Talbot -- the Penguins' Stanley Cup hero after scoring the team's only 2 goals in a 2-1 win in game 7 of the 2009 final against the Detroit Red Wings -- is in the final year of his contract, and after a miserable washout season last year mostly spent recovering from off-season shoulder season and in-season groin and other injuries, he needs to bounce back strong and get back to being the clutch, energy player he's capable of being.

Tyler Kennedy is in a similar boat.  He struggled big time last year and is probably the guy who faced the most competition for a roster spot in camp this season.  It showed, because he upped his game, but he can't rest on his laurels for a minute.  If he does, he's likely to be the first healthy scratch --- or the first one moved on to another team in a trade.  As I've said in this space before, TK has to concentrate this season more on being a little abrasive, and less on trying to transform himself into a 35-goal scorer.  While I and many others thought he had that potential at one point, I think he's shown at this point that's not going to happen.   But if he scores 15 and plays physically and with energy, he can be that great 3rd line presence he was during the Penguins' Cup run 2 seasons ago.

Eric Godard remains on the team as the resident pugilist and, while he'll probably see less games this year, the team has chosen to keep him around.  He may even be in the lineup tonight against the always-physical Flyers.    

Two guys I haven't mentioned -- Chris Kunitz and Pascal Dupuis -- sit here today as the likely wingers on the #1 unit.

Kunitz suffered from some injuries last year, which made it hard for him to get on track.  The extended off-season probably benefited him as much as anyone, and if he can stay in the lineup on a consistent basis, expecting 25 goals and 60 points from him is not unreasonable.

And frankly, he needs to stay in the lineup and produce that way to justify his 3.75 million dollar salary.

Dupuis had a near-career season last year with 18 goals, all the while continuing to be a sound defensive player.  He's probably miscast as a permanent top liner, but he's shown that he can fill in there capably and not look overwhelmingly out of place for a few months at a time.

For the forwards, that about covers it.

Wait.

Oh yeah.

There's that Crosby guy.

The Pens' Captain, #1 center, and the best player in the game is the easiest to talk about, beacuse he does everything well.  In fact, the only real question surrounding him is what he's going to take and go from great to outstanding at next.  Last year, he upped his faceoff percentage to around 55%, and turned into a sniper, to boot -- tying for the league lead and the Rocket Richard Trophy with 51 goals, while still producing points, leading the power play, setting an example and otherwise being the NHL and Penguins' marketing posterboy. 

Crosby does all of that well and with aplomb.

The Penguins are blessed to have him.

While many observers have questioned and continue to question the Penguins' depth and the quality of their wingers, the team still finished in the top 10 in offense last year.  Would it be nice to have a 4o-goal man patrolling the wing?  Sure.  But clearly, even without that, they are capable enough of fililng the net.  Offense isn't one of their worries ....

DEFENSE

..... which is why Pens' GM Ray Shero set out instead to re-tool the blueline this summer, rather than ink a free-agent impact forward.  The Penguins finished the 2009/2010 season ranked in the bottom 3rd of the league in overall defense, and team brass felt that the team's defensive play contributed to their 2nd round playoff exit, and less than stellar netminding from Marc-Andre Fleury.

And so, after stalwart power play quarterback Sergei Gonchar packed his free agent bags and signed his longed-after 3-year contract with the Ottawa Senators a mere 15 minutes into free agency, and after it became clear that he would not be able to sign two-way rearguard Dan Hamhuis -- who he acquired the free-agent-to-be's rights to for a 3rd round pick on draft day -- Shero moved to plan B.

Quickly.

Learning a lesson after waiting for -- and losing -- Marion Hossa in free agency two years ago, Shero wasted no time inking the other two marquee blueliners on the free agent market to long-term contracts:  Paul Martin, formerly of the New Jersey Devils, and Zbynek Michalek, formerly of the Phoenix Coyotes.

Martin is an accomplished two-way defenseman in this league.  He would have been the United States' top blueliner in the 2010 Olympics had he been able to play, but he was still recovering from a broken arm he sustained in a game against the Penguins early last year.

In New Jersey, Martin -- like everyone else -- was asked to play defense first.  Still, he has offensive potential, averaging around 30 points a year in the swamp.  In Pittsburgh, he's going to get to showcase that part of his game more, while still being counted on to be solid in his own zone. 

With the Penguins' offensive talent and puck-moving system, a year for him with 45/50 points and a +15 rating is not out of the question.

Michalek, on the other hand, is built to play in his own zone.  Similar to former Penguin Rob Scuderi, Michalek is a smart blueliner who uses his stick, body and smarts to consistently disrupt plays.  He led the league in blocked shots two years ago and will undoubtedly bring that dirty willingness to the Penguins' blueline.  It's clearly an element the team lacked last season.

Michalek also has underrated offensive skill.  He makes a good first pass, and has a strong shot.  While he's not going to get any power play time, Brooks Oprik doesn't either, and he had about 25 points last season.  There's no reason Michalek can't do the same.

Speaking of Orpik, he had minor abdomen surgery this off-season to correct an injury that occured in the next-to-last regular season game against the Atlanta Thrashers, and which he played through during the entire post-season.  He seemed to come into camp healthy, but dealt with a little groin issue on the opposite side that forced him to miss the last two pre-season contests.  He's been sensitive about watching the injury, since that's what caused him to overcompensate and slightly tear a muslce on his abdominal wall last year.  He seems like he's ready to go for tonight, though, and one of the best hitters in the NHL has gone on record as saying he can't wait to dish out free candy in the regular season.

Rounding out the Penguins' outstanding top-4 is Kris Letang.  Letang is as slick and talented as they come on the Pittsburgh blueline, but despite that, he had a down offensive year last season, scoring only a few regular season markers.  In the playoffs, he showed what he's capable of, scoring 5 goals in 13 playoff games and making an impact from the blueline. 

In camp this year, Letang has gotten back to the physial, two-way game that always makes him most successful.  He even dropped the gloves twice.  In one game.  If Tanger plays with that edge, it keeps his head in the game, and that's something he needs.  He also needs to continue to work hard at hitting the net with his shot.  As a right-hander, he can be a wicked weapon on the power-play.

Speaking of the power play, the guy who probably remains the lead candidate to quarterback it in Gonchar's absence is the 5th blueliner -- Alex Goligoski.

Last year was GoGo's first full year in the NHL, and he started off like gangbusters, averaging nearly a point a game for the first 1/3rd of the season.  His play trailed off noticeably after that, though.  Still, Goligoski has the intelligence and offensive savvy to step into the power play and keep it moving.  Neither he nor Letang have the experience or acumen that Gonchar had, and won't be seen doing nearly as many of the subtle things that Gonchar did to make the power play hum, but they are still capable. 

If they can get the job done on the man-advantage for the Penguins this season, the team will be that much more dangerous.

Rounding out the Pens' blueline are Ben Lovejoy and Derek Engelland.  Lovejoy is a smooth two-way guy who was an impressive +8 in 11 games with the big club last year.  Engelland is more of a physical, defensive masher with limited offensive skill.  Both are probably going to see time in the Penguins lineup as the 6th defenseman, depending on the opponent.

Overall, the Penguins are markedly improved on the blueline this year.  Their top-5 is amongst the best in the Eastern  Conference -- with that of the Toronto Maple Leafs and Philadelphia Flyers -- and perhaps even the entire NHL.

GOALTENDING

I read a piece yesterday on SI.com from former NHL netminder Darren Elliot where he ranked the NHL's current goaltending tandems.

Fleury and Brent Johnson were ranked third, because they have the perfect mold between the pipes --- a young, proven 20-something starter, and an established veteran who can step in as needed as the backup.

Indeed, that's exactly what the Penguins have, and they are better for it.  Johnson is probably one of the best backups in the game, capable of winning a stretch of games if Fleury were to go down, and otherwise spotting in with capable performances despite not having much work.

For his part, Fleury still receives some criticism in these parts, despite making several 10-bell stops on the Penguins' run to the Stanley Cup in 2009.  Undoubtedly, Fleury had a subpar season and playoff last year.  Like a lot of the team, he could have been suffering from some burnout, given all the high-stakes hockey -- and short-offseasons that went along with it -- that the club had engaged in the prior 3 seasons. 

The Olympics didn't help Fleury stay on track either.  While it was a privilege to be selected to the Canadian team, to be sure, it was a detriment to be the #3 guy and not have any game action for 3 weeks. 

Overall, Fleury needs to continue to be more consistent, and cut down on the occasional soft goal.  An improved defense in front of him will help wonders, as will greater focus on his part. 

All in all, though, Fleury has shown he can deliver in the clutch.  If he gets back to his game this year, the Penguins will be in good shape.  If he has another subpar season, they won't be.  And, all of a sudden, more questions about the state of the Penguins' goaltending are going to come up. 

This is certainly a big season for #29.


THREE SIGNS THE SEASON IS GOING RIGHT:

1) Evgeni Malkin returns to form

If Malkin plays like he has this pre-season, he's quickly going to go from a top-10 or top-15 player in the league to entering the debate about who's the BEST player in the game again.  As he adjusts to playing a new position on the wing a lot of this year, the Penguins need him to dominate.  When #11 returns, it probably will be to center the 2nd line, so it's going to bear watching whether Malkin clicks with him like they did in Staal's rookie season.

2) The third line excells without Staal

Mark Letestu -- who will start the season centering this unit -- looks like the real deal so far, but he has to continue to get the job done in the regular season.  His two-way play and intelligence seem to be a great fit on a line with some skill and a lot of grit, but there has to be a reason why Letestu, 26, hasn't stepped up to this level before now.  It could be just a matter of confidence.  If that's it, he's going to do well, because he's seeping faith in his game from every pore right now.  If he falters, though, the Penguins may look to Talbot to slide into that role regularly, and that would be a big opportunity for him.

3) The defense grows cohesive quickly

With not just a few new faces, but IMPORTANT new faces on the blueline, it's going to be interesting to see how fast the pairs settle -- and hopefully, jell -- on defense.  To open the season, it seems as if Blysma is going to pair up shutdown defenders Orpik and Michalek together, but they weren't always smooth in the pre-season.  Obviously, that's the time to work out those kinks, but if they don't start doing it, how long will Blymsa stick with that pair -- and the other pairs?  Martin is probably too heady to not excel with anyone, so I don't expect to see any difficulty with he and Letang playing together.  Ironically, Goligoski and Lovejoy have played regularly together in Wilkes-Barre, so those two are more familiar with each other than any other blueliner. 


THREE SIGNS THE SEASON IS GOING WRONG

1) Marc-Andre Fleury struggles out of the gate

As I mentioned above, this is an important season for the Pens' netminder.  While Fleury has developed some track record of being able to put individual goals behind him quickly, can he do that if he begins the year struggling like the way he ended last season?  At that point, you're trying to put a longer trend of play in your rear-view mirror, and that won't be easy.  If Fleury struggles, it also will be a sign that the defense in front of him isn't coming together as well -- or as fast -- as Shero or Blysma hoped.

2) Injuries

The Penguins have been relatively fortunate the last several seasons -- particuarly in the post-season.  Now, they've certainly had some scares.  Crosby missed a month or so with an ankle issue.  Gonchar missed big chunks of time when he was here -- in one case due to a shoulder injury.  The normal bumps and bruises that the likes of Chris Kunitz and Max Talbot sustain aside, what Pittsburgh really has to hope they avoid is a long-term, significant, or season-ending injury to their Captain, Malkin or Fleury.  Missing any other player for that period is probably something that can be overcome.  For as important as Staal is, the team could probaly even do well without him for a long period.  But if it's one of the big 3, all bets are off.  Injuries are a problem for any team, but beacuse the Penguins are top heavy up front (more so than most), this always will be a concern.

3) Regression of the role players without others stepping up

Last year, Dupuis, Cooke and Rupp had near-career seasons for the Penguins.  And they needed to given Malkin's struggles and the lack of overall winger depth the team has.  If those guys take a step back this year and their production isn't replaced by their role-playing teammates -- like Talbot, Asham and Kennedy, for instance -- Pittsburgh will be in for a battle night-in and night-out, and they're going to lose more of those than they otherwise would if they were getting good production from their role players.


PREDICTION

Without trying to be a homer, I think more things are situated to go right for the Penguins this year than last.  They were bound to take a disappointing step back at some point.  Last year they did that.  This year, with a revamped defense and a focused, hungry group (and coach), I think the pieces are in place for them to be a real strong regular season team. 

The Atlantic Division is probably one of the toughest in the league -- certainly the toughest in the Eastern Confernece.  I mean, there's a reason why the last 3 cup finalists from the East have come from the Atlantic. 

The Devils are going to be strong again, but you can see they are already on the regression.  Martin Brodeur's play is slowly starting to slip.  He's been wearing out towards the end of the year, and their 3 consecutive first round playoff defeats is Exhibit A of that.  They are going to play a slightly more offensive style this year with Ilya Kovalchuk, Zack Parise and company, but don't have the blueline or system to compensate for it like they used to with Jacques Lemaire gone.  But if they can incredibly sweep the 6-game season series from Pittsburgh like they did last year, who knows what their ceiling is?

I still think Philadelphia is likely going to be the Penguins' biggest competition in the division.  Their goaltending remains a question mark (what is hockey without mediocre Flyer goaltending?), but they have strong skill and depth both up front and on the blueline to overcome that over 82-games.

Conference-wise, Washington is built for regular season play, and everyone knows they're going to be near the top of the pile come April.  Under new GM Steve Yzerman, Tampa Bay is going to be much improved as well.  Watch for them to nab a playoff position again.   Goaltender Ryan Miller will backbone the Sabres into a playoff position, and the Boston Bruins are probably in for a post-season birth as well.  Despite Marc Savard's expected long absence, they have enough other good players at each position -- including the ageless 42-year old former Penguin Mark Recchi -- to not excel.

In the end, when the regular season dust has cleared, the Penguins will finish 1st in the Atlantic Division, and 2nd in the Eastern Conference.

It starts tonight, where I can't wait to start the year by catching the action live @ the CEC.

It's go time, boys.

Recap tomorrow.

Let's Go Pens!