Should Gonchar Stay Or Should He Go?

With the Pens' signing of free-agent forward Matt Cooke yesterday, all the focus in Penguin Nation now turns squarely to their power play quarterback, Sergei Gonchar.

Penguins' GM Ray Shero remains enagaged in contract negotiations with the camp for the soon-to-be unrestricted free agent, but a deal remains 50/50 at this point in time.

Which makes it no better moment than to answer the question -- should Gonchar be re-signed, or should the Penguins cut him loose?

There's no right answer to this question, frankly, mainly because there are too many variables which might tilt the response one way or the other.

Put in plain english -- it's all about dollars and term.

Before going there, though, it's worth examining what the Penguins are getting if they keep the 36-year old Gonchar. Coincidentally, that would be the same thing they'd be losing if they don't re-sign him.

That is, a player with the 2nd best points per game among blueliners the last three seasons -- and a player who has missed 77 games the last 2 years because of injury.

A player at the fulcrum of a power play that has finished with an underachieving ranking -- but that clicked well above average when he actually was in the lineup to quarterback it.

A player who is a steadying veteran force on the ice and in the locker room, but who's 5-on-5 play took a notable step back last season.

All of these things are what make the call so hard on Gonchar. In a salary cap era, difficult decisions need to be made. Teams can't afford to tie up money in players on long-term contracts that exceed the useful life of a player's talent on the ice. That's why I was in favor of actually trading Gonchar before the trading deadline in 2009 -- yes, the year Pittsburgh ended up winning the Stanley Cup -- because I thought that was when he'd have the most value. Obviously, dealing him then would have been a mistake since Gonchar was a playoff force that post-season and it turned out that questions remain even 18 months later about whether young offensive defenseman Alex Goligoski and Kris Letang are ready to step into even part of Gonchar's shoes, but now the Penguins are faced with a quandry of perhaps losing Sarge for nothing, and that's also often a big no-no in a cap system.

Rob Rossi of the Pittsburgh Tribune Review did a piece on Gonchar in today's edition. That piece can be found here:

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/sports/penguins/s_687228.html

In that article, Rossi smartly recognizes that, if there's a year to try and fill #55's shoes in free-agency, this is the year, when the free-agent defensemen class is generally regarded as plentiful, what with the likes of Anton Volchenkov, Paul Martin and -- perhaps -- Dan Hamhuis, if the Philadelphia Flyers don't sign him after just dealing for his rights, among others, slated to start marketing their services starting in 8 days.

Rossi also mentions that, if the Penguins don't put as much money in a free-agent blueliner, they could use those dollars to fill a long-standing hole or two up front on the wing. Fans shouldn't get excited about this year's free agent forward class, though, because Rossi is right in pointing out that, while the free-agent defensemen soon to hit the market are good quality, the wingers are just as correspondingly poor. Still, having the money on hand certainly wouldn't help the Penguins' chances at perhaps acquiring one by trade. With several trades occuring around the league already in the last week and more expected in the coming days, I think there's the potential that Shero could get involved in that market. Knowing he'd have more money to play with couldn't hurt.

Can you say James Neal or Kris Versteeg, perhaps?

To save the money to commit elsewhere and let Gonchar walk, the Penguins need to make decisions about fellow rearguards Letang and Goligoski, both of whom I have already mentioned. Letang has the ability to be a two-way force in this league; he just needs to show it night in and night out. Goligoski is the one who's probably more proficient offensively. It will take both several years still to learn the nuances which Gonchar could do with his eyes closed, though, and that's where the Penguins would lose the most if #55 doesn't come back.

Most fans don't consider things like looking off penalty killers at the point, and being able to get your shot on net consistently from the blueline, but those are things which Sarge has mastered, and which can make the difference between scoring a huge goal in playoff game with everything on the line.

Whether that's worth the salary Gonchar is demanding is the question. Gonchar is said to be consistently demanding a similar salary to what he received in his current contract -- $5 million dollars per -- and over a 3-year deal. He probably could receive somewhat in excess of that on the open market, too.

The Penguins, meanwhile, are believed to be trying to get Gonchar to agree to a 2-year deal at around $11 million, and while that money is in the range Sarge is looking for, the term isn't. He thinks he has those 3 -- and maybe 4 -- good years left.

Here's the bottom line for me:

If I'm Shero and I can reel in the Penguins' big fish at or near the $10 or $11 million on a 2-year contract, I pull the trigger. I would consider 3 years, but only at less money, say a total of $13 million. If Gonchar wants more money, or 4 years, the Penguins should move on.

Other players have accepted less to stay in Pittsburgh for a chance to regularly compete for the Cup. While understanding that his next contract will likely be his last big payday, Gonchar needs to recognize that the team is greater than any individual. If --as Rossi says so well in his article --Gonchar isn't willing to show he really wants to stay in Pittsburgh by doing that, the train should keep moving without him.

I'll have a recap tomorrow of tonight's NHL Awards in Las Vegas. Both Sidney Crosby and Jordan Staal have a chance to take home some hardware. I'll also have a trade/free agency update tomorrow before I post a draft preview on Friday.