As The 2010 Free Agency Clock Is About To Strike 12 ...

With just hours before the start of free agency 2010, the Pittsburgh Penguins are -- perhaps somewhat surprisingly -- facing significant change in several areas of their lineup.

First, it appears that the player who has led their defense and power play for the last 5 seasons coming out of the lockout -- Sergei Gonchar -- is about to test free agency.

There has been no progress on a deal between Gonchar's agent, J.P. Barry, and Pens' GM Ray Shero since about a week ago. More concerning is the fact that there hasn't been any meaningful discussions between the two sides over the last several days.

The sticking point(s) in the deal appear(s) fairly known at this juncture. First and foremost, Pittsburgh isn't prepared to go the 3 years Gonchar is looking for. They have extended a two year offer although, contrary to initial reports, it seems as if the annual salary they put on the table in the proposed deal is slightly less -- not more -- than the $5 million Gonchar made last year and is said to be seeking in his new deal.

Sources report Sarge has been torn on leaving Pittsburgh and, although he feels he has 4 good seasons left and would rather make one final big contractual splash in his career, he would consider a 2 year deal from the Penguins, just not with a salary reduction. Because the Penguins haven't budged from their position, they may very well be looking to replace their blueline leader within the next 12 hours. And make no mistake, teams are lining up to throw money at Gonchar as I write this.

#55 will probably give the Penguins a chance to match whatever offers he receives, but the odds of that happening and him returning to Pittsburgh are somewhere between a July blizzard in Brazil and the odds of my children being peaceful for 15 consecutive minutes.

Moving past Gonchar leads Penguin observers directly to Dan Hamhuis.

Hamhuis' camp and Shero have had several discussions over the last few days since the Penguins' acquired Hamhuis from the Philadelphia Flyers for a 3rd round pick in the 2011 entry draft last Friday night after the first round of this year's draft. However, I'm not certain numbers have been exchanged between the sides. I've been trying to find out over the last few days whether or not the Penguins have actually made a contract offer to Hamhuis and his agent, Wade Arnott, but that doesn't appear to be the case. At this point on the eve of free agency, with no contract offers being tossed back and forth, it's more and more likely that Hamhuis is likely to join Gonchar as another of the four most coveted defensemen on the free agent market tomorrow.

That said, I don't believe the picture is as bleak with regard to Hamhuis as it is for Gonchar. Hamhuis's camp is supposedly considering Pittsburgh as one of their top destinations, and seems more willing to at least consider certain sacrifices to play with the Pens. Gonchar doesn't appear willing to do that. Admittedly, Gonchar is 36 and looking for his last contract, while Hamhuis is only 27, but there definitely seems to be a difference in the approach of the two blueliners, even if it's not necessarily an overwhelming distinction.

Of course, putting Pittsburgh on the short list of potential playing destinations doesn't guarantee anything, and it's understandable that, no matter how much Hamhuis likes Pittsburgh, he's probably going to see what's out there for him, so only time will tell what happens. Frankly, at this point, with free agency so close, I understand a player wanting to test the market. That's why getting deals done sooner rather than later in June is the best free agency practice, all else being equal.

So, not only does it look like Gonchar and Hamhuis will hit the market and Hamhuis, it looks like the Penguins also may have a meaningful hole to fill in their lineup up front.

While free agent forward to-be Matt Cooke re-signed with the Penguins about 10 days ago, it appears the Penguins will not have similar luck getting #1 line RW Bill Guerin to sign on the dotted line.

Shero and Guerin's agent have touched base several times over the last week or thereabouts and the Penguins have extended an offer to Guerin's camp. However, as I indicated in this space a few days ago, that offer is an incentive-laden one, with a reduction in base salary of about $750,000K. Guerin would prefer to return to Pittsburgh, but isn't ready to make that move with that offer, so he too is expected to see what's out there starting tomorrow, before giving Pittsburgh a chance to match any offer he gets.

Meanwhile, Shero has opened up a bit more dialogue with free agent defenseman Mark Eaton and Jordan Leopold the last few days. Clearly, Shero has waited to see how things go with Gonchar and Hamhuis first, but with those talks coming into focus more on the eve of free agency, he's looking harder about whether to bring back one or both of #7 or #4.

Of the two, expect the Penguins to prioritize Leopold.

So, with Gonchar, Hamhuis, Guerin and Ponikarovsky expected to hit the market, with so many roster spots open, and with at least some cap space in free agency as a result (about $11 million to play with), what will the Penguins' approach be beginning at noon tomorrow?

If Hamhuis doesn't stay (and perhaps even if he does), I expect Shero to be aggressive in targeting other players, particularly blueliners. According to my sources, his shopping list could include New Jersey Devils' defenseman Paul Martin, Phoenix Coytoes' defenseman Zbynek Michalek, Buffalo Sabres' defenseman Henrik Tillander, and Ottawa Senators' defenseman Andy Sutton.

Martin, in particular, will probably be the Penguins' #1 target if Gonchar and Hamhuis are not retained.

Up front, the Penguins could look at Carolina Hurricanes' forward Ray Whitney, Ottawa Senators' forward Matt Cullen, and Phoenix Coyotes forward Matthew Lombardi. As I have said, the free agent forward crop is weak, so if the Penguins move beyond their number one free agency priority, upgrading their blueline, and choose to try and bloster their forward ranks, they may have to look at other options.

Like a trade, perhaps.

Without speculating as to which players may be involved in any such deal, one that any such deal WON'T involve is Chicago Blackhawks' winger Kris Versteeg.

Certain sources had linked Versteeg to the Penguins' as a way of Chicago giving themselves more salary cap relief, but the Blackhawks traded Versteeg to the Toronto Maple Leafs tonight, so that pretty much rules out Versteeg becoming a Penguin anytime soon.

I have to say, I'm surprsied at how much focus is going to be on Pittsburgh tomorrow. Going into free agency, I thought there was a chance Gonchar could walk, but expected them to retain Cooke and Guerin. In that scenario, what they did otherwise would have been the big story. But adding Hamhuis to the picture and possibly losing Guerin raises the stakes for the Penguins. Starting at noon, it's going to be interesting.

Very interesting.

Over the next 48-72 hours, I'll likely have quick hit posts when there's news to report, then a more detailed recap this weekend.

Stay close boys and girls. It's going to be one heck of a ride. I just hope it turns out good in the end.