Thursday, June 4, 2009

THE SWING GAME: Stanley Cup Final Game 4 Preview

This is the time of year when you say the next game is the most important of any that have been played so far.

Then you repeat that before the contest which follows that game.

And so it is before game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final tonight between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Detroit Red Wings at Mellon Arena (8 PM EST).

When you stare down the barrel of this monster game tonight, knowing that the Boys of Winter are going to either square up the series and make things a best-of-3 for Lord Stanley's Cup, or put themselves in a position, like last year, where they are down 3-1 and facing extraordinarily difficult odds to come back and beat a team like the Red Wings, you know the stakes are immense.

And when the stakes are immense, who do you turn to?

The Captain.

That's right .... #87.

This is his time tonight. Not only is he due for a breakthrough for Pittsburgh, he has to break through if the Penguins are going to have a chance in this series. And that's true for many reasons.

First, regardless of the current posture of the series, Pittsburgh won't beat Detroit unless Sidney Crosby is playing at the level he was in the Washington series. So far, he hasn't done that and, while a lot of the credit for that has to go to Red Wings' star forward Henrik Zetterberg -- who has shadowed Crosby more effectively in this series than the blanket Sid had when he was 3 -- it's incumbent upon the Pens' Captain to find a way to produce anyway, which all of the best players in the history of this game have done despite being checked by the opponent's best players.

Second, the onus is on Crosby tonight because Red Wings' forward and Hart Trophy candidate Pavel Datsyuk is probably going to be back in the lineup tonight for Detroit.

Sure, Datsyuk is going to be somewhat limited and not 100%, but with him back in the lineup, it's reasonable to think that Evgeni Malkin -- who has played pretty well in the final so far -- may have a harder time getting on the board.

And that's likely to be true even if, as suspected, Datsyuk plays on the wing -- rather than center, where he'd likely be head-to-head with Geno -- to ease him back into the lineup and not put undue pressure on that foot by keeping him in the circle and deep in the defensive zone having to check #71.

By the way, the Red Wings are also likely to have defensive specialist and speedy veteran Kris Draper back in the lineup tonight.

Draper missed the last 5 games -- as Datsyuk did -- with an injury, although Draper was cleared for contact before game 2. Red Wings' coach Mike Babcock didn't play him, however, opting instead to stick with a winning lineup.

With Datsyuk and Draper returning, it's likely that Jiri Hudler and Justin Abdelkader -- who has scored 2 big goals for the Red Wings in this series so far -- will take a seat in the press box for this pivotal contest.

While it goes without saying that the Penguins will also need another strong game from goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury tonight, the other wild-card for Pittsburgh will be how their supporting cast plays.

Think about the way this series is playing out so far. Zetterberg and Lidstrom (and even Wings' defenseman Brian Rafalski to a degree) have all been asked to limit Crosby's production. They are doing a great job of that, really, but it has limited somewhat the way in which all 3 forwards can contribute offensively to Detroit.

The same is likely to be true with Datsyuk. Even at the wing, he may be asked to concentrate on trying to limit what Malkin can do out there. Remember, when Datsyuk has played this post-season -- even before he was hurt -- he hasn't contributed like gangbusters. He has only 1 goal and 6 assists so far in the post-season, far from what he's capable of.

As I have said in this space, the Red Wings can get away with focusing on limiting Crosby and Malkin because their supporting cast is so good. That speaks volumes about how good #87 and #71 are, but Detroit can get away with doing what they do because they count on Johan Franzen and Marion Hossa to provide offense, while getting other production from guys like Dan Cleary and Mikael Samuelsson.

And speaking of Hossa, the Penguins should pay particular attention to him tonight. Pittsburgh has done a pretty good job of limiting him and keeping him to the perimeter, but all six (6) of the goals he's scored this post-season so far have come in the three game 4's which Detroit has played.

He's potted 2 in each of those contests, and none in any other game.

The point of all of this is that, with Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Lidstrom, Rafalski, Crosby and Malkin basically cancelling each other out, it could be the supporting cast that decides game 4 tonight -- and the remainder of this series.

Detroit has gotten production from its other players. Will the Penguins get that tonight from Bill Guerin? From Chris Kunitz? From Ruslan Fedotenko and Max Talbot? How about from Jordan Staal? Tyler Kennedy? If they can light the lamp, the Penguins' chances of having all the momentum going into game 5 in Detroit on Saturday night increase greatly.

Hopefully they'll win that battle and, when they do, bang the Red Wings' into submission along the way.

There's a theory floating around that the Red Wings are near the end of the tank, and showed it during the 3rd period of game 3 on Tuesday night. Chances are good they won't come out in game 4 looking fatigued, but if the Penguins continue to bang bodies like they did in the last game -- outhitting Detroit 36-17 -- that could easiliy wear on the Red Wings as the game, and series, continue. So that's something the Penguins need to continue to do. They shouldn't take themselves out of position to make a hit, but they need to finish their checks, particularly on the Detroit defensemen when they dump the puck in, which is something they've had to do -- and probably will continue to have to do -- with increasing regularity since the Red Wings eliminate the middle of the ice and backcheck so well.

The Penguins' system under coach Dan Blysma is well-suited to play that type of game and be aggressive. They just need to do it on the ice.

Pittsburgh seemed like a relaxed bunch in front of the media yesterday. Malkin even had the NHL media room rolling when he was asked what linemate Max Talbot brings to his unit and responded by saying "bad hands".

That was an enjoyable moment of levity for the Russain who is clearly more comfortable with each passing game, and for the team as a whole who feels much more at ease compared to where they were against the Red Wings in last year's final.

But make no mistake. The Penguins need to play their best game of the season for 60 minutes tonight. They need to be focused and intense. They need to appreciate the gravity of the situation, but be confident. They need to skate aggressively and not take stupid penalties. They need scoring and team contributions from everyone, including their star players.

Especially their Captain.

Recap tomorrow.

LET'S GO PENS!

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