Penguins v. Flyers: Round 1 Breakdown/Analysis

Welcome to the Jungle, Part II.

Teams that meet in the Stanley Cup Playoffs always talk about developing a healthy dislike for the other opponent.

How, after a few games against the same squad, emotion tends to build up.

How, after battling the same players for the same square inch of ice day after day, hostilities tend to emerge.

If all that is true -- and it undoubtedly is -- how is a series between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers likely to go??

These two teams, former longtime Patrick Division rivals, haven't liked each other since their inception into the league in the 1967-68 season, and the list of memorable moments these two teams have shared when matching up against one another goes back decades.

There was the game in the 1988-89 playoffs where former Penguin player and current Penguin owner Mario Lemieux scored five goals and 8 points. That was the series Ron Hextall chased Rob Brown around the then-Civic Arena ice, before ultimately giving way to Ken Wregget's defeat of the Penguins in game 7.

There were the games in the 1990's when Lemieux played a game in Philadelphia the same day he received a final cancer treatment. That was probably the first and only time an opposing player ever recieved or will receive a standing ovation from fans of a city who have booed Sanata Claus and who consistently are known as the most obnoxious and disrespectful in sports.

Of course, who can forget the seismic and thundering check that former Penguin defenseman Darius Kasparaitis put on former Flyer center and big man Eric Lindros in, I believe, the 1997-98 season? I know I can't -- I was at that game. I don't know that I've heard a more raucous response to an opponent being injured. That hit started the end of Lindros' career in the league.

More recently, Penguins' Captain Sidney Crosby has gotten most of the attention. Nobody will forget the game he played in Philadelphia a few years ago when he was high-sticked by Flyers' rearguard Darian Hatcher, lost 2 teeth, then game back to score the game-winning goal on a breakaway.

Then last year, the Penguins defeated the Flyers for the first time in post-season history, dominating them in 5 games on the way to the Stanley Cup final.

Of course, those are just a few memories.

More, obviously, will be made in this series.

So without further delay, let's break the series down and see how the teams match up. After the position breakdowns, read further for my 3 players-to-watch from each team, how each team can win the series, and prediction.

FORWARDS

Both the Penguins and Flyers finished tied for 4th in the league in goals scored, which suggests this series could have more offensive fireworks than a 4th of July celebration at the Point.

The Penguins boast six 20-goal scorers, and have 11 forwards who have reached double figures in goals, led by NHL scoring leader Evgeni Malkin's 35 goals and Crosby's 33 tallies. LW Chris Kunitz, RW Petr Sykora, C Jordan Staal and RW Bill Guerin all provide solid complementary scoring to those 2, although Sykora has slumped somewhat towards the end of the season. The Penguins' lead support players are LW Ruslan Fedotenko, LW Matt Cooke, C Max Talbot and LW Pascal Dupuis. Fedotenko, a notable playoff performer, has been hot lately with 10 points in his last 7 games. And don't forget Tyler Kennedy. He fills out a well-rounded Penguins' 3rd line with Staal and Cooke that is fast, physical and can score.

The Penguins' play a new, up-tempo. aggressive skating system under interim coach Dan Bylsma. That system puts pressure on the opposition in their defensive zone with the goal of committing turnovers and then capitalizing on those chances. The Penguins pressure on the forecheck with their forwards and both pinch in and step up with their defenseman to do this. It obviously works well for the Penguins. They have the speed up front to use this system to their advantage and the Penguins' near 4-goal-per-game-average clip down the stretch of the season proves they can be extremely dangerous offensively. And it never hurts to have 2 of the 3 best players in the league as gamebreakers, either.

Meanwhile, the Flyers boast a fine stable of guns up-front as well. They are led by C Jeff Carter, who finished 2nd in the league in goals with 47. LW Simon Gagne -- who missed last year's playoff series against Pittsburgh due to post-concussion symptoms -- returned this year to the tune of 34 goals. C Mike Richards and LW Scott Hartnell chipped in with 30 and RW's Mike Knuble and Joffrey Lupul were not far behind with 27 and 25, respectively. In short, this team's top end up front is loaded.

The Flyers' depth drops off a little bit after those guys, but they still have dangerous 3rd line players in C and rookie Claude Giroux, who has 27 points in 42 games with the big club and, of course, Daniel Briere, who has battled injuries all year, but has been getting in gear for the playoffs recently. Remember, the Flyers pay Briere 8 million dollars per year and they don't do that for nothing. He's nearly a point-per-game player.

ADVANTAGE: Even


DEFENSEMEN

Just as the Penguins and Flyers have scored the same number of goals this year, they let up nearly the same number, with the Penguins surrendering 238, while the Flyers surrendered 239. The difference is that the Penguins' numbers defensively have improved recently under Bylsma, while the Flyers have shown a penchant for turning the puck over and giving up an inordinate number of goals against at various times all season long.

The Penguins' top pairing of Sergei Gonchar and Brooks Orpik is one of the better two-way tandems in the game, while Hal Gill and Rob Scuderi form a relatively solid defensive pairing. Scuderi, in particular, is one of the better defensive defenseman in the game, and he is able to cover up for Gill when Gill is overmatched by quicker forwards -- something the Penguins will have to watch out for in this series. Mark Eaton and Kris Letang are fairly well-rounded on the third pair. Letang, in particular, could be the wild card. With 10 goals this year, it's no secret that Letang has high-end skill. However, his ability defensively is often understated. While he still has the occasional lapse, he can be fairly effective -- and physical, for a generally undersized player -- in his own zone. The Penguins also have Phillipe Boucher as their #7 defenseman, and he is a veteran who is capable of stepping into the lineup and playing well at any time. He recently returned from foot surgery and has looked relatively good, all things considered, including in his own zone where he's blocked a lot of shots.

The Flyers will obviously benefit from having 2 defenseman in their playoff lineup this year that were missing for most of last season's Conference Final matchup against Pittsburgh -- Kimmo Timonen and Brandon Coburn. Timonen developed a blood clot in his leg right before last year's series was to begin, and then Coburn was hit with a puck early in the series and, after missing a few games, was not the same thereafter. These two played together last year, but it doesn't look like that's the case this season. Philadelphia likes to put Timonen with Ryan Parent, and pair Coburn with Matt Carle. Parent is a decent young defenseman, but he has been battling a bit of a groin problem recently and this could limit the strength in his game -- mobility. Carle is a guy with some offensive talent. Andrew Alberts and Randy Jones round out the top 6. Jones is capable, and Alberts is, too -- capable of being beaten down low around the net. And that's probably the area where the Flyers are weakest on the backend. They are not overly physical, and with the forwards the Penguins have, Philadelphia can be exploited here.

ADVANTAGE: Penguins


POWER PLAY

The Flyers have one of the better power plays in the game, thanks to their well-rounded group of top-end talent. They finished 6th on the man-advantage at 22.5% this year for a reason. They control the puck well, have people who can finish, and Knuble always gives other teams (especially the Penguins) fits in front of the net. Carter is the guy you really need to watch on the man-advantage for Philadelphia, although Timonen does a great job carrying the puck up the ice and orchestrating things from the point.

The Penguins' have similar talent up front, and may be starting to hit their groove on the man-advantage. They struggled in this area a lot of the season, although that undoubtedly had to do with the fact that they missed power-play quarterback Sergei Gonchar most of the season while he was recovering from a shoulder inury. Since he has returned, however, and since Bylsma took over, the Penguins are clicking at near 20%. Since the Flyers are the most penalized team in the league, they need to be careful about sending out the Penguins' man advantage. And again, giving 2 of the world's best players additional ice is always particularly dangerous.

ADVANTAGE: Flyers


PENALTY KILLING

Under Bylsma, the Penguins have killed penalties off at a near 88% rate, which would be just about at the top of the league over the course of a whole season. They finished 9th overall on the PK. The Penguins have great role players at forward (Talbot, Dupuis) and on defense (Scuderi, Gill) to kill off man-advantage chances. 20-year old forward Staal is also a force on the kill for Pittsburgh.

The Flyers also get good marks on their penalty kill. They finished 8th overall and are particularly dangerous shorthanded. Richards led the league with 7 shorties this year, while Gagne and Carter each had 4. The Penguins' point men need to be particularly careful out there because shorthanded goals are big momentum changers -- especially in the post-season.

ADVANTAGE: Even


GOALTENDING

The Flyers have had goaltending questions for about 2 decades now, ever since Hextall was patrolling the Philadelphia crease. That's because they can't get consistently good netminding when they need it, and the play they got from their starter, Martin Biron, this year has been more of the same. Biron finished 29-19-5 with a 2.76 GAA and a .915 SV% this season. He can play well for stretches, before lapsing into a bad outing or two. He's susceptible up high and doesn't handle traffic well. Most observers would say Biron is where the Flyers are weakest, and I wouldn't disagree. He will need to play extremely well in this series for Philadelphia to win.

Meanwhile, Penguins' goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury has been one of the best goaltenders in the league down the stretch for the 3rd straight season. Fleury finished 35-18-7, with a 2.67 GAA and a .912 sv%. He has lost only 3 games since dating back to February and generally looks like he's ready to recapture the form that helped him be a Conn Smythe Trophy candidate as playoff MVP last year during Pittsburgh's run to the Stanley Cup Finals. If Fleury maintains his play, and watches his rebound control (where he is most likely to slip), the Penguins will have a clear advantage in net in this series.

ADVANTAGE: Penguins


COACHING

This playoff round will be Bylsma's baptism in the playoffs, and even though he has been a resounding success so far, only time will tell how he handles the pressure of the post-season. He has been a good X & O's coach, and a good motivator. In the playoffs, though, the decision-making intensifies. A big thing to watch will be how he matches his lines and defensive pairings, since winning just a single one-on-one matchup can make the difference. Bylsma has to strike a balance between doing what has gotten him this far and adjusting enough to give his team an edge at the right time.

Flyers' coach John Stevens isn't a bad coach, and he clearly has the experience edge in this series, so look for him to try and use that to his advantage. His biggest challenge will be keeping the Flyers focused. His players can be mistake-prone at times, and he's had trouble getting his team to avoid making errors unnecessarily. Also, what will he do if Biron falters early in this series? Will he feel the pressure and go to backup Nittymaki?

ADVANTAGE: Flyers


INTANGIBLES

As I mentioned, the Penguins had never beaten the Flyers in a playoff series until last season, so this year will determine whether there's a new trend, or whether last year was merely an aberration. The big intangible factor in this series -- one common in a series pitting teams very evenly matched overall -- could very well be the home-ice advantage. While both teams have shown they are capable of winning in the other team's building, and while the Penguins have been slightly better than .500 in Philadelphia in the Crosby era, history tells us that, for the most part, the home team in this series has a general advantage. Edge goes to the Penguins there. The Penguins' won 4 of the 6 games against Philadelphia this year, and considering last year's 5-game playoff beating, and the fact that the Penguins' swept the Flyers by winning all 8 games against them in the regular season 2 years ago, the Penguins certainly won't have a lack of confidence against their cross-state rivals.

ADVANTAGE: Penguins


PLAYERS TO WATCH

PHILADELPHIA:

1) Mike Richards, C: Richards is an outstanding player, and one of the best two-way players in the game today. There's a reason why he's the Flyers Captain and why many liken him to former Philadelphia Captain Bobby Clarke. He can score, play defense and is not afraid to be physical. He likely will be matched up against Sidney Crosby a lot in this series and that will probably be one of the best things to watch in the matchup of these clubs.

2) Daniel Briere, C: I mentioned above that Briere isn't getting a lot of attention. Well, I hope the Penguins pay attention to him because if they don't, he'll hurt them. Briere, who will likely play RW on a 3rd line centered by Giroux, will probably be more dangerous on the power play than he will at even strength, but he's talented enough to tip the balance in this series between the fairly evenly matched forward units of the 2 teams.

3) Martin Biron, G: Here's the tough part for Martin Biron in this series: If he plays poorly, the Flyers surely lose. If he plays well, the Flyers only have a chance of winning. The same can't be said of his counterpart in the Pittsburgh crease, Marc-Andre Fleury. Sure, if Fleury plays poorly, the Penguins probably lose this series. But if he doesn't, the Penguins can still win. Why? Because of Biron at the other end.

PITTSBURGH:

1) Chris Kunitz, LW: This will be Kunitz's first taste of the bitter Penguins'/Flyers rivalry, but there's little question that he has the jam -- and skill -- in his game to be an impact player in a series like this. During last season's playoff run, Crosby had Hossa finishing his passes. Even though Kunitz is no Hossa, that doesn't mean the Penguins can't win, and how Kunitz does in that role this year will go a long way towards determining if the Penguins advance past Phliladelphia.

2) Jordan Staal, C: In his first 2 playoff seasons, Staal has shown the ability to ratchet up his game. Moreover, he's been playing some of the best hockey of his career under Bylsma, and on a team deep up front like Philadelphia, the Penguins need him to be an impact player. If he plays up to par, he can take advantage of Giroux on the Flyers third line. He has the edge there offensively and physically. He'll also need to be good on the penalty kill for the Penguins to snuff out the Flyers' dangerous man-advantage.

3) Kris Letang, D: I think Letang matches up real well against the Flyers. The physical nature of the rivalry between these two teams will force him to be on his toes defensively, but Philadelphia is no defensive juggernaut, and Letang should get his offensive chances by pinching in the zone. If he buries those opportunites, Biron might be seeing him in his sleep.


HOW THE FLYERS CAN WIN

If the Flyers get really strong goaltending, don't take too many bad penalties, and produce on the power play, they'll stand a decent chance of avenging last year's embarrasment in the Conference Finals.

HOW THE PENGUINS CAN WIN

If the Penguins are able to successfully pressure the Flyers into turnovers and capitalize on those chances, and stay strong on the penalty kill, they'll send the Flyers back to Philadelphia losers for a second straight post-season.

PREDICTION

Last year, I said goaltending would be the difference in the Eastern Conference Finals. While there were other factors which conspired to the Flyers' demise last season in that series -- injuries being key among them -- the fact is that Biron didn't hold up. The Flyers are healthier now, but their goaltender still wears number 43. That will be the difference in this series.

Penguins in 6.