Penguins v. Capitals: Round 2 Breakdown/Analysis

It's hard to not be excited about the NHL's second round marquee matchup between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Washington Capitals.

There should be drama, emotion, and excitement to virtually every game.

Oh, and it just so happens that the world's 3 best hockey players will be sharing the same sheet of ice in this series for the better part of the next 10 or so days.

Naturally, Sidney Crosby, Alexander Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin are going to draw a lot of the attention in this matchup, and rightfully so.

When you have the last 3 Art Ross trophy winners, likely the last 3 Hart Trophy winners as league MVP, and the Rocket Richard winner for the last 2 years running, there are bound to be fireworks on the ice. And that's before you even factor in the dislike factor among those star players.

And while there's certainly a significant chance that any of those three players can single-handedly lead their team to victory in any one game, the truth of the matter is that the other players on each of the two squads are likely to make the difference over the course of the entire series.

You know that all 3 are going to bring their "A" game, but who's going to step it up among the supporting cast?

That's going to be the key to the series.

Like I did with the Penguins' first series against the Flyers, I'm going to break down the matchup position-by-position, list my 3 players to watch on each team, talk about how each team can win the series, then offer my prediction.


FORWARDS

This won't require an extensive breakdown. Both offenses were among the best in the league this year, and we all know what Crosby, Malkin and Ovechkin bring to the table. Crosby is the playmaker, Ovechkin is the shooter, and Malkin is probably the best 2-way player in the group, and he can score as well as he can feed the biscuit around. And while the Penguins might seem to have the edge because they have 2 players in that group, Washington has a couple other meaningful contributors in LW Alexander Semin and Center Nicklas Backstrom. Backstrom had 88 points this year and finished 3rd in the league in assists behind Malkin and Crosby, and Semin also scored at greater than a point-per-game clip in the regular season. On top of that, Semin tallied 8 points in round 1. He's a serious talent and wicked around the net with the puck.

Beyond that, there's a little bit of a drop off for Washington up front. Victor Kozlov and Sergei Federov are probably next in line among the players to watch for the Capitals, and then you get into their 2-way players on lines three and four. Washington has good role players here -- Brooks Laich, Thomas Fleischmann, and Matt Bradley among them. Laich, in particular, is someone to keep an eye on, and really more than just a role player for Washington. He had 23 goals in the regular season.

The Penguins run a little deeper than Washington down the middle because of Jordan Staal, but otherwise the Penguins are very similar to the Capitals up front. After the 2 stars, they have good complimentary options on the wings in LW Chris Kunitz and RW Bill Guerin. If they can get production from LW Ruslan Fedotenko, RW Tyler Kennedy and either of RW Miroslav Satan or RW Petr Sykora, they'll be difficult for the Capitals to contain. Guys like center Max Talbot, LW Pascal Dupuis and RW Craig Adams do as good a job on the 4th line as almost any in the league.

ADVANTAGE: Even


DEFENSEMEN

The Penguins trot out basically the same top 6 they've been running with since last season, and all of them form a capable and complementary group. Sergei Gonchar, one of the better two-way defenseman in the game, and Kris Letang lend offense, while Brooks Orpik and Hall Gill lend physicality. Rob Scuderi and Mark Eaton are the shot blockers and defensive stalwarts, although Eaton pitched in with 2 goals in the Flyer series and Scuderi also had a tally. They are a well-rounded experienced group, but are going to have to be on their toes defensively in their own zone beacuse of how dangerous Washington is up front.

The Capitals, meanwhile, lead from the backline with Norris Trophy nominee Mike Green, who was the first defenseman in over 15 years to score 30 goals from the blueline. He's clearly like a 4th forward out there and the Penguins will need to watch out for him. He struggled a bit early in the Capitals' first round series against the Rangers, but seems to be coming around. Defense isn't his strong point, so the Penguins will need to pressure him and be physical with him when he has the puck.

Behind him, the Capitals rely on a fairly pedestrian group. Tom Poti is often paired with Green. Poti has skill but also isn't terribly physical or the most reliable defensively. Behind him, Washington tries to get it done with the likes of Brian Pothier, Milan Jurcina, John Erksine and Shane Morrisonn. None are overly impressive, although Erksine is a battler. The Penguins should be able to take advantage of this group with their speed.

ADVANTAGE: Pittsburgh


POWER PLAY

The Penguins continue to underachieve on the power play, clicking at about 12% in their first round against Philadelphia. They have a ton of talent and sufficient personnel to be successful on the man advantage, but occasionally get too pretty with the puck and don't do enough dirty work to score. They need to get the puck to the net and work on causing havoc in front.

Washington finished 2nd overall in the league on the PP in the regular season, and it's obvious why. They have top end skill players and Green is like a 4th forward from the point. Another reason for their success is that, unlike the Penguins, they shoot the puck. Ovechkin had approximately 525 shots this year, only about 30 off the league's all-time record held by former Boston Bruins LW Phil Esposito. He knows how to get the puck to the net and does it from all angles at great speed. He will move around on the power play, and the Penguins will have to know where he is at all times.

ADVANTAGE: Washington


PENALTY KILLING

Washington was an average penalty killing unit, at best, during the regular season. Part of their problem is that they aren't as strong around the net defensively. They did a decent job against the Rangers in round 1, but that's terribly deceiving because New York had the worst power play in the league and is lacking in offensive talent. The Penguins will pose a lot more challenges to their PK unit.

Since Dan Bylsma took over the Penguins' ship, they have been one of the better penalty killing teams in the league, and they did a great job against a really good Philadelphia Flyers power play in the first round. They were excellent at getting their sticks in the lanes and blocking shots against the Flyers and will need to do the same thing again against Washington.

ADVANTAGE: Pittsburgh


GOALTENDING

This will be one of the more interesting areas to watch in this series.

Everyone knows what Marc-Andre Fleury is capable of doing. He led the team to the Stanley Cup Final last year and has picked up in this year's postseason playing just about as well as he did then. He made several spectacular saves in the first round against the Flyers and one could argue that he was directly responsible for 2 of their victories against Philadelphia.

Going into the post-season, I and many other people had fair question-marks about Washington's goaltending with Jose Theodore. True to form, Theodore had a bad first game in the Capitals' series-opening loss to the Rangers and Washington coach Bruce Boudreau made a gutsy call in sitting him after just one game and instead going with rookie and 2006 #1 draft pick Simeon Varlamov, who had only started 5 or 6 games in the regular season after a mid-year call up.

Varlamov did not disappoint. He took the helm and ran with it beginning in game 2, finishing with a 4-2 record, a 1.17 GAA and a .952 SV% in round 1. Clearly, he'll be Boudreau's guy unless he stumbles badly in this series. However, the Penguins are going to test him a lot more than the popgun Ranger offense did, and the fact remains that, even though he had a good first series, and even though the NHL has a history of goaltenders coming out of obscurity to have some success in the postseason (SEE: HEDBERG, JOHAN ... aka, THE MOOSE, circa 2001), Varlamov can still be considered raw. He'll need to show he can handle traffic and deal with the Penguins' skilled offensive players. Until he actually does it, there's going to be a question mark there.

ADVANTAGE: Pittsburgh.


COACHING

Dan Bylsma, now Pittsburgh's "permanent" head coach, did a good job in his first career playoff series in round 1 against Philadelphia. Boudreau only has one more series in the NHL under his belt (a loss last year in round 1 against the Flyers), so he's not infinitely more experienced than
Bylsma. Boudreau also has a different, more loud personality. He's more likely to make comments to the media, either trying to inflame the other team and it's players, be critical of the officials, etc. Bylsma is more focused on the task at hand. But that doesn't mean Boudreau is at any disadvantage. He's well-liked by his players and they respond to his style and his system. It will be interesting to watch this series and see how the coaches play it tactically.

ADVANTAGE: Even


INTANGIBLES

This is probably going to be brought up a lot in this series, so there's no reason to hold back on it now.

The Penguins have owned the Capitals in their playoff history. They've played 7 series' and the Penguins have won 6 of those. The only one Washington prevailed in was in 1994. During the Penguins' dominance over the Caps' in the post-season, there have been amazing victories (the 1992 4 OT win on a goal by Petr Nedved in 'The Pajama Game'), and more than one comeback. You've probably heard the statistic this year that there have been only 20 or so comebacks from a 3-games-to-1 series deficit in the history of the league. Well, the Penguins are responsible for 2 of those, and in each case, the Capitals were the victim.

The Penguins also have fared quite well against Washington in the Ovechkin/Crosby era, with the Penguins winning 11 of 15 games overall. That said, as I pointed out yesterday in this space, the Penguins struggled against Washington this season, losing 3 of 4 games. It's worth noting, however, that all of their losses were under former coach Michel Therrein and that their victory was under Bylsma and his aggressive, skating style -- something the Capitals may not have been used to seeing from the Penguins.

The Capitals do have home ice in this series, and that's also worth something at this time of year. But only if the series goes 7 games.

Foreshadowing here boys and girls.

ADVANTAGE: Pittsburgh


PLAYERS TO WATCH

WASHINGTON:

1) Alexander Ovechkin, RW: He'd be the #1 person on this list in any series, for obvious reasons. I certainly don't need to talk about his offensive pedigree, but what will be curious is to see how he handles the 'rivalry' he has against Crosby and, perhaps now to a lesser degree, his countryman, Malkin. Ovechkin has a history of running around a little bit against the Penguins and not focusing on his game. Crosby and Malkin haven't allowed any of the "distractions" he and the Capitals have tried to lay at their feet affect them. If Ovechkin does the same thing again in this series, it could be trouble.

2) Alexander Semin, RW: Semin is extremely dangerous. He has some of the best hands in the game and a rocket shot. He scored a goal in round 1 against the Rangers by taking a puck at the top of the circle off a cleanly-won faceoff and, in the blink of an eye, whizzed a wrister to the far top corner behind New York netminder Henrik Lundqvist, who had about .1 seconds to react and, obviously, failed to do so. That's just one example of Semin's great skill. The Penguins would be wise to play him physically and see how he responds.

3) Mike Green, D: Green is a guy who can make the difference in any series because he's as much like former Penguin Paul Coffey as any defenseman who has come into the league since. You always have to watch him trailing the play. Unfortunately for Washington, he also can make the difference in a series defensively, and not in a good way. If he's not caught pinching offensively, he can be worked over down low in the defensive zone. Green is not a Norris Trophy candidate because of his defense. There are holes in his game.

PENGUINS:

1) Sidney Crosby, C: Everyone knows that Crosby will step up on the big stage in this series. His intensity, focus and desire to win is unmatched in this league and I personally can't wait to see how he does in this series. He won't be affected by the publicity the series will get and, in fact, it will likely only drive him to play even harder because his will to succeed is so great. He'll want to show everyone that, when the series is over, he's the Captain who will have led his team to the next round.

2) Ruslan Fedotenko, LW: Fedotenko scored a huge goal for the Penguins to start their comeback from a 3-0 hole in game 6 of the opening round against the Flyers and it looks as if the Russian Tank may be starting to find his game. He's a noted playoff performer and with the current revolving door on Malkin's RW, the Penguins need Fedotenko to play well in this series. He has to get in on the forecheck, create turnovers and then capitalize when he gets close to the goal. If he has a big series, the Penguins' chances of winning will be improved immensely.

3) Marc-Andre Fleury, G: Fleury was strong in round 1 against a good Philadelphia offense and he's going to have to be just as good in round 2 against Washington if the Penguins are going to prevail. He will need to have his head on swivel at all times to know where #8 of the Capitals is, and he's going to have to be strong with the glove hand against Washington's sharpshooters, because many of them (Semin, Kozlov, Federov, among them) all like to shoot there.


HOW THE CAPITALS CAN WIN

If their defense holds up in their own zone, if they get another strong performance from Varlamov, and if they find a way to get enough scoring from their complementary offensive players, Washington will stand a great chance of reversing some of their franchise's tortured playoff history against Pittsburgh.


HOW THE PENGUINS CAN WIN

If the Penguins are physical against Washington, continue to get dominant play from their third line, and have Crosby and Malkin shine on the NHL's dream stage, the playoff gorilla they have on the backs of the Capitals will likely weigh much heavier 2 weeks from now.


PREDICTION

As I said at the oustet of this piece, the star players in this series may, essentially, cancel each other out, leaving the support players and goaltenders to win the series. The Penguins certainly have the better goaltender, and as a team, they are already pressure-tested. Washington is not. Don't discount that, especially with the additional hype that this particular matchup provides. I expect a great series, but the Penguins will continue their postseason dominance over Washington on their way to the Eastern Conference Finals for the 2nd straight season.

PENGUINS IN SIX