Thursday, September 18, 2008

5 Burning Questions

With Day 1 of Camp in the Books, there's already much to say about the happenings on the ice. However, I'm going to have to bite my tongue for a day before talking about those things; otherwise, camp will be over before I get to address what I think are the Penguins' top 5 issues heading into camp (and, to a degree, the season).

So, without further delay, let's get to it. The questions are listed in no particular order:

1) WILL THE SHORT OFFSEASON, SHORT CAMP AND START OF THE SEASON OVERSEAS HURT THE PENGUINS?

This is the issue that could rear it's ugly head all season long. The off-season was extremely short for the Penguins. That's what happens when you go all the way to the Cup Final (and just another reason why you want to win it when you get there). I don't think the short offseason will hurt the Penguins early on -- in fact, their timing may not be as off as some other teams. The jury is out as to how fatigued they'll be later in the year, though.

The short training camp, on the other hand, could indeed result in the Penguins being rusty. It also doesn't give them meaningful time to evaluate their young players, which hurts the chances of guys who have been on the fringe of the roster in prior years -- players like Jonathan Filewich and Ryan Stone -- as well as the chances of some younger players like Luca Caputi and Kevin Veilleux.

Of course, the shorter camp is a result of the Penguins traveling overseas to start the season in Sweden with 2 games against the Ottawa Senators. Provided the Penguins aren't overrun by Daniel Alfreddson fans, they stand a good chance to open up the season 2-0 and make the trip a rousing success. That won't come without cost, however. Aside from reducing the time of camp, the Penguins only have 4 exhibition games. These games also require that the Penguins take nearly a week off before and after the games just to travel and get acclimated. Historically, teams that have played overseas to start the year -- including the Penguins when they opened up their season against the Nashville Predators in Japan a handful of years ago -- have been sluggish on the ice in their return to North America.

The Penguins didn't start well last year; let's hope their overseas trip to start the season this year doesn't put them in the same predicament, because slow starts are not always easy to overcome.

2) HOW WILL RYAN WHITNEY'S INJURY AFFECT THE TEAM AND WHO WILL BE THE STARTING 6 DEFENSEMEN TO BEGIN THE SEASON IN HIS ABSENCE?

Defenseman Ryan Whitney is a little more than a month removed from his surgery to correct a deformed foot. Although his recovery and rehabilitation is said to be going well, the earliest he'll be back is in mid-November. Potentially, he could be out for the rest of 2008.

Fortunately for the Penguins, they have good depth on the blueline. There are no less than 7 NHL-experienced defenseman on the team, excluding Whitney: Sergei Gonchar, Rob Scuderi, Brooks Orpik, Mark Eaton, Kris Letang, Daryl Sydor, and Hal Gill. Of course, that list doesn't include the man knocking on the door for a spot on the backline, top prospect Alex Goligoski.

As it is now, two of those 8 won't be in the starting lineup. Gonchar, Orpik, Letang and Gill are vitrutal locks. Eaton can probably be counted on for one of the other spots. Whether Sydor, Scuderi or Goligoski gets the other one remains to be seen. It has long been known that GM Ray Shero has been shopping Daryl Sydor. He hasn't found any takers, though. Assuming that continues to be the case, there's a good chance he'll be scratched come game time. If Goligoski wows the brass at camp, he could make Scuderi a healthy scratch, too.

What happens when Whitney returns is anybody's guess. Depending on how Kris Letang performs in Whitney's absence, #19 could end up being good trade bait.

Now, I'm not a Whitney basher like most people are. I think he fills a valuable role on our squad -- a role that would be even more valuable when Gonchar's contract expires in 2 years because, given his age, it's doubtful the Penguins will pay what is likely to be necessary to bring him back at that time. However, there's no denying that the Penguins' strong depth on the blueline makes a trade or two possible. Whitney is a guy that would be attractive to a lot of other teams in exchange for a nice scoring winger.

On the ice, the Penguins will miss Whintey, but because of Letang's skill-set, losing him doesn't drastically alter the approach the Penguins will take to offense or the power play.

3) WILL THE PENGUINS' OFF-SEASON FREE AGENCY ACQUISITIONS OFFSET THEIR FREE AGENCY LOSSES

This is perhaps the most obvious question facing the team this year. The Penguins lost forwards Marion Hossa, Ryan Malone, Gary Roberts, Jarkko Ruutu and Georges Laraque in the off-season. With those players gone, the Penguins lost primary and secondary scoring, and individual and team toughness.

Replacing those players up front are former New York Islander wingers Miroslav Satan and Ruslan Fedotenko, former Washington Capital Matt Cooke, and former Calgary Flame Eric Goddard.

Goddard will replace Laraque as the team enforcer. Although he's a skilled fighter, Laraque was unquestionably at the top of the NHL-food chain in that regard. The Penguins lose in this area, even if they did save on salary.

Cooke will replace some of the abrasiveness that Ruutu brought, and will be a better offensive player. A lot of fans probably don't know much about Cooke. He's not going to score 30 goals, but could chip in 15. He plays all 3 forward positions and does an excellent job along the boards. He's a gritty, in-your-face player like Ruutu.

All that said, Roberts and Malone brought physiciality to the team, as well. The Penguins will miss the intangibles they bring, and I wouldnt' be surprised to see Shero bring in an experienced veteran with an edge at some point this year to help make up for those losses as the Penguins (hopefully) head towards the playoffs again.

Hossa is one of the best wingers in the game. Nobody can replace him. But don't underestimate what Satan can do. He scored at least 25 goals for 8 seasons in a row until the Islanders were putrid last season. He can easily recapture that form, and exceed it. He already showed some good chemistry playing in Hossa's old spot on Sidney Crosby's wing in the first day of camp.

I also think Fedotenko is an underrated player. He could score as much as Ryan Malone did. He's just as good on the wall, although maybe not the presence in front of the net. Time will tell if he ends up playing in Malone's old spot riding portside to Evgeni Malkin, or whether Jordan Staal gets that role.

Overall, any reasonable observer has to look at the Penguins and see they took somewhat of a step backwards in the offseason. However, I don't believe the step back is that big -- and certainly less than many people think.

4) WHAT WILL THE PENGUINS DO WITH JORDAN STAAL THIS YEAR?

By all accounts, Jordan Staal met the expectations of the organization last year. Sure, his statistics went down, but there's no question he improved as a player, especially defensively. Nobody in the league questions his ability to be a top 2-way center in this league and if Ray Shero put him on the block, every other team in the NHL would be knocking his door down. Yesterday.

One other reason why Staal's statistics decreased last year is that he didn't play alongside Evgeni Malkin during any stretch of time, nor did he get any meaningful minutes on the power play. Staal is a great player. Obviously, he's going to put up better numbers if he plays with better players.

This year, it looks as if #11 is going to get a legitimate crack at the power play. Ideally, he's able to replace Jordan Malone in front of the net there. He's got the size and hands to do it. He'll have to want to take the punishment, though.

In addition to that -- and if the 1st day of training camp is any indication -- it seems as if coach Michel Therein wants to give Staal a permanent spot in the top 6 by slotting him next to Malkin again. He had Ruslan Fedotenko, Matt Cooke, and Max Talbot on the 3rd line.

If Staal ends up playing with Malkin, in addition to being a valuable offensive contributor, he'll be an excellent defensive consience to the 2 very creative offensive linemates in Malkin and Petr Sykora. If Staal stays there the entire season, he could be a 35 goal scorer.

5) WHAT WILL THE PENGUINS DO IF MARC-ANDRE FLEURY GETS HURT AGAIN

This could be the quiet thorn in the Penguins side all year. It's not that #29 is injury-prone. Despite his ankle sprain last year, he doesn't have that kind of track record. The problem is that the Penguins' proven backup, Ty Conklin, was let go in free agency. To think he signed a whopping $770,000 deal to back up Chris Osgood with the hated Red Wings. For a backup of his known caliber, that's a bargain, and I still don't know why we couldn't have brought him back for that much.

I am concerned that, if Fleury goes down for a stretch of time, Dany Sabourin won't hold the fort nearly as well. He had a chance to do that last year and failed to make the most of it. Having Fleury stay healthy will be a huge key for the Penguins this year, because if he doesn't, I wouldn't be surprised to see the team give John Curry a shot. He looked great for Wilkes-Barre in his first professional season last year and I think the team expects him to be the regular backup for Fleury as soon as next season when Sabourin becomes a free agent. In light of all those circumstances, don't be surprised to see him if Fleury gets hurt because there's at least a 50/50 chance that Sabourin will only provide the Penguins with inconsistent goaltending --- at best.

Well, those are the 5 key issues facing the team as it heads to camp and, not long after, into the regular season.

In the coming days, we'll talk more about the battles going on at camp and how the roster and lines may be starting to shake out.

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