Penguins v. Red Wings: Stanley Cup Final Breakdown

Finally.

One more series.

Four more wins to the top.

The last step on the road to the greatest trophy in professional sports.

The Stanley Cup

Our Boys of Winter begin their 3rd Stanley Cup Final in franchise history this Saturday evening when they, at last, face off against the Presidents' Trophy winning Detroit Red Wings. The 2nd seed in the East versus the first seed in the West. This final is arguably the best the National Hockey League has seen in 11 years since the Flyers and Red Wings faced off in 1997.

But only one team can win.

So, without further delay, let's break down the matchup:

OFFENSE

Both teams have near-even top end talent, with the Penguins' Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin matching up against the Red Wings' Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk. All four players are capable of offensive wizardry in this series. However, look beyond those superstars and the Penguins have a better supporting cast offensively. Red Wings winger Johan Franzen, who has been out since game 1 of the Western Conference Finals after suffering from concussion symptoms, can be an impact player. Despite missing that time, he still leads the postseason with 12 goals. However, he has not yet been cleared to practice and is expected to miss at least the first part of the finals. After him, the Red Wings' production starts to drop more noticeably. Although they have other players who have contributed offensively, most are defenseman. Nicklas Lidstrom, Brian Rafalski and Nicklas Kronwall all have more than 10 points. The only other forwards to make a meaningful offensive contribution are Jiri Hudler, with 13 points, and Tomas Holmstrom, who picks up the garbage around the goal when Zetterberg and Datsyuk can't score. When it comes to putting the puck in the net, however, after their big 3 and Hudler, the Red Wings leading goal scorer has 3 goals. This is why they were able to score only 2 goals in 3 of the 6 games in the Dallas series.

The Penguins, on the other hand, simply have greater scoring depth. After their big two, Marion Hossa does a lot of heavy lifting. He has 9 goals this postseason so far and is tied for 5th in playoff scoring with 19 points. So much for him being someone who can't produce on the playoffs. And that's not all. Ryan Malone has 6 goals. Jordan Staal has 6 goals. Petr Sykora has 5. These players are spread across 3 lines. Without Franzen in the lineup, the Red Wings main offensive threats -- Zetterberg and Datsyuk -- are on 1 line. I believe the Penguins last opponent, the Flyers, were a better offensive team than Detroit. Despite all the attention those two get, offensive depth has to be a concern for the Red Wings going into a series against Pittsburgh, even if Franzen returns. EDGE: PENGUINS

DEFENSE

Detroit has arguably the best defense in the game. Lidstrom is one of the 5 best defenseman in the history of hockey. Rafalski is just as good offensively as he was when he was with New Jersey, and he has the speed and hockey sense to be effective with Lidstrom in his own zone. Kronwall has come into his own this year and actually has more points in the playoffs than Lidstrom. He's also a noted open ice hitter with a physical edge to his game. He plays on Detroit's second pair with trade deadline acquisition Brad Stuart. There's nothing fancy about Stuart's game. He's more of a defensive defenseman, but has enough puck skills to get the puck out of his own zone. Detroit's third pair is led by 46 year old, 3-time Stanley Cup winner Chris Chelios. Chelios missed game 6 of the Dallas series with a leg injury but is expected to be able to play in the Finals. Certainly, Chelios has lost a few steps over the years, but his hockey sense is nearly unrivaled. He uses positioning to do the job and remains a physical presence on the ice. His partner, Brett Lebda, is generally unnoticeable on the ice -- something you want from your #6 defenseman. As a team, the Red Wings have given up only 30 goals in 16 games. Because they are so good with the puck and so good positionally, they are often able to significantly limit the number of shots their opponents see per game.

The Penguins, meanwhile, have also been an exemplary defensive team in the playoffs, giving up only 24 goals in 12 games. We all know that they have offensive weapons back there like Sergei Gonchar and Ryan Whitney, but the main reason Pittsbugh has advanced as far as it has in the playoffs this season has been how good they have played defensively. Brooks Orpik has done a fantastic job next to Gonchar, and both will have to be at the top of their games in this series because they are the pair likely to see the most of Zetterberg and Datsyuk. Rob Scuderi and Hall Gill also have been fantastic for the Penguins. Scuderi is +8 in the playoffs so far. Both keep the game simple and play very well positionally. Rounding out the group is rookie Kris Letang -- another guy who doesn't get noticed. Letang has skill but has played very well defensively this season, and shown a physical side to-boot. The fact that 2-time Stanley Cup Winner Darryl Sydor has been locked in the press box during the Penguins entire playoff run says a lot about how well the Penguins have played defensively in the postseason.

This is a tougher call than most think. Although both teams are playing well as a team, Lidstrom gives Detroit an advantage. EDGE: RED WINGS

GOALTENDING

The Penguins Marc-Andre Fleury has been playing the best goal of his career. He's won 22 of his last 28 decisions and leads the playoffs with a .938 save percentage. His goals against of 1.70 is second only to the Red Wings Chris Osgood at 1.60 -- who, by the way, is second in save percentage at .931. Osgood took over in game 3 of the Red Wings' series against Nashville after Dominik Hasek played poorly, but still won, the first 2 games of that series. Osgood has only lost once since. Although many think he is the weak link on the Red Wings, they shouldn't sleep on Ozzie. He's a veteran who has won a Stanley Cup before. The Penguins will have to work hard to beat him.

Osgood is largely a positional goaltender, but he isn't big and therfore is susceptible to goals up high. Quickness also isn't his strong suit, so the Penguins can exploit them if they are able to go side-to-side on him. Fleury, on the other hand, is tall and quick. I can count on one hand the number of spectactular saves he's had to make in the playoffs, which is both a testament to the way the Pittsburgh defense is playing in front of him, but also to how well he's been playing positionally. He'll have his hands full with Red Wings crease-crasher Holmstrom in this series, but if he stays focused and keeps playing the way he has, the Penguins can't ask for more.

This is a close call, but Fleury has the edge in talent and ability. Although he hasn't been asked to, he can steal games. Osgood is less likely to do that. EDGE: PENGUINS

POWER PLAY

Both teams have power play units near the top of the league's rankings, thanks to their top-end talent and ability to possess the puck. If either the Penguins or Red Wings power play struggles in this series, either because of the opponent's penalty killing or some other reason, it will be a significant factor. For this reason, it will be important for both teams to try and stay out of the penalty box. EDGE: EVEN

PENALTY KILLING

Again, both teams are near the top of the league's rankings, which makes it hard to give either team the edge. The Red Wings have faced good power plays in those of the Stars and Avalanche, while the Penguins had to contend with the top power play of the playoffs in that of the Flyers. Both have numorous skill and role players doing yeoman's work when down a man. Guys like Red Wing forwards Kris Draper and Kirk Maltby do a fantastic job killing penalties, but so do Penguin forward Maxime Talbot and Jordan Staal. Both can be a threat to score shorthanded. There virtually is no advantage to either team in this area with the way both units have been playing. Again, if one team's PK falters, it could be fatal in the series. EDGE: EVEN

COACHING

Penguins head coach Michael Therrein is finally starting to get some credit for the great work he's done with the Penguins. He and his staff have an excellent scheme in place and have gotten the players to buy into it. He's made good personnel decisions, such as changing his defensive pairings to better match up against his opponent, despite coming off a 4-game sweep. Red Wings head coach Mike Babcock has also done a great job with his squad, not just this year but the last several. This is the 2nd time he's coached a team to the Cup Final, having done it with Anaheim in 2003. He's a good tactician and players coach. In a series so close, coaching moves can make the difference. It will be very interesting to see if either coach pulls out something different in this series -- whether out of design or necessity -- or sticks with what got them where they are. EDGE: EVEN

INTANGIBLES

In a series likely to be close as this, home ice can be meaningful. Detroit has that in this series and might need it, since the Penguins have been virtually unbeatable at The Igloo, where they haven't lost in nearly 3 months and are undefeated in the playoffs. Obviously, the Red Wings have more experience in the playoffs than the Penguins do. Their franchise has won 10 Stanley Cups and is a regular at the top of the standings almost every year. That said, as I wrote in this space yesterday, I don't buy for one minute that the Penguins are doomed to lose an otherwise even series simply because of their inexperience or because they haven't gone through heartache first. Recent league history has reduded that common wisdom to a nullity. In fact, the Penguins youth, by one theory, could work to their advantage simply because they may not appreciate the gravity of what they have accomplished. That's not to say they don't know the Stanley Cup is at stake, but rather to say that all they know is to play the way they've been playing. They are led by an incredibly mature Captain and have been grounded in their playoff run from the beginning.

It's hard to give an intangible edge to teams who are so evenly matched with little history because they play in different conferences, but if anything tilts the balance ever so slightly, it's the home ice advantage. EDGE: RED WINGS

PLAYERS TO WATCH:

1) Sidney Crosby -- will he lead his team to the Silver Chalice in just his 3rd year in the league? If so, he will have won the cup quicker than either Gretzky or Lemieux did. One of the best storylines of this series is to see exactly how much Crosby takes his game up with the Cup on the line.

2) Evgeni Malkin -- for as critical as Crosby is the Penguins fortunes, Malkin could be the guy that wins the series for them. Since the Red Wings will probably match up the Datsyuk line, and Lidstrom and Rafalski, against the Crosby line, Malkin will have an opportunity to be a difference-maker.

3) Marc-Andre Fleury -- Fleury has arguably been the best goaltender of the post-season so far, and is a viable candidate for the Conn Symthe Trophy as playoff MVP. He's played with poise and focus, but he will be tested by the best crease-crasher in the game in this series, Holmstrom. How he deals with him in the series will go a long way towards determining who carries the Cup when it's over.

4) Henrik Zetterberg -- many think Zetterberg has been the best player of the playoffs so far. Between he and Datsyuk, Zetterberg is the more important of the two, and the greater leader. Without Franzen for at least the start of this series, it's going to be up to him to lead the Red Wings up front offensively.

5) Nicklas Lidstrom -- any game with Lidstrom in it, let alone a Stanley Cup Final, makes him a player to watch. There's no reason to think he won't be on top of his game in this series, but the high end skill of the Penguins, especially on the power play, will test him.

6) Chris Osgood -- a lot of observers still don't give Osgood the credit he deserves, and feel the Red Wings win in spite of him and not because of him. But teams don't make it to the Stanley Cup Final in spite of their netminder. Osgood benefits from a great team defense and low shot totals, but has yet to face the constellation of offensive weapons that the Penguins will throw at him in this series. Osgood may still only face 20 shots a game. The Difference is that 10-12 of those may be outstanding scoring chances and Osgood could still get sunburn. How he holds up to that attack could decide the series.

HOW THE PENGUINS CAN WIN: Bury their chances against Osgood, keep the Red Wings to the outside, and not be intimidated by the Red Wings experience

HOW THE RED WINGS CAN WIN: Have Holmstrom rattle Fleury, get offensive contributions from their role players, and win at least one game at Mellon Arena

PREDICTION: The Penguins are playing as well defensively as Detroit, and have the better offense and goaltending. Lord Stanley, Lord Stanley, Get Me The Brandy (again). The Penguins win the franchise's third Stanley Cup Championship in six games.