Penguins v. Flyers: Conference Final Breakdown

It's only fitting that it comes down to this.

An old Patrick Division rivalry among the greatest in the National Hockey League, spanning 41 years of physicality, bloodshed, a 15-year losing streak and, new to the history this season, allegations of purposeful tanking just to avoid each other.

Penguins. Flyers. A berth in the 2008 Stanley Cup Final in the balance.

One thing is for sure. This should be a heck of a series. It will be emotional, physical, and highly skilled. The only question is: Who will win?

Let's break down the matchup.

OFFENSE

The Penguins scare everyone offensively. Centers Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are among the playoff scoring leaders, while Marian Hossa is averaging more than a point per game. Wingers Petr Sykora and Ryan Malone are solid complementary scorers, and the Penguins also get contributions on the scoresheet from their other players -- Jordan Staal, Pascal Dupuis, Gary Roberts, and Jarkko Ruutu. Don't forget the offense they add from the backline, with Sergei Gonchar and Ryan Whitney. Few teams can match their firepower ....

BUT, if anyone can, it's Philadelphia. The Flyers trot out seven -- that's right, SEVEN -- twenty goal scorers from the regular season, including centers Mike Richards, Danny Briere and Jeff Carter. Add to this group capable shooters Vaclav Prospal, Mike Knuble, Joffrey Lupul, and Scott Hartnell. As if that's not enough, they also have the second leading goal scorer in the playoffs, Pittsburgh-native and Plum High School Graduate R.J. Umberger -- a guy who has had great success so far against the Penguins in his young career. Kimmo Timonen is their only meaningful offensive threat from the blueline, although Braydon Coburn has shown some potential there.

Both teams have speed and flair, although the Flyers forward group probably has a little more grit because of what Knuble, Upshall, Hartnell and Richards add to the mix. The Penguins top-end offensive talent is unmatched, but the Flyers actually have more offensive depth.

EDGE: EVEN

DEFENSE

The Penguins have only given up 16 goals in the playoffs so far, which adds up to about 1.76 per game. Meanwhile, the Flyers have given up more than twice that many -- 34, despite playing only 3 more games. These numbers aren't surprising given the defensive personnel on the respective clubs.

Penguins defenseman Brooks Orpik, Rob Scuderi and Hal Gill -- the latter of which had an outstanding series against the Rangers -- do a great job in their own zone. Gonchar also is an underrated player there. He finished plus 14 in the regular season and relys on his keen hockey sense and positioning in his own zone. You almost never hear rookie Kris Letang's name, which is not the norm for a such a young player playing the toughest position in the league. He rounds out an efficient defensive group that finished 3rd in the Eastern Conference defensively.

On the other hand, defense cannot be considered a strong point for the Flyers. Their top pair, Timmonen and Coburn, have done a good job in the first two rounds limiting the impact of Alexander Ovechkin and Alexei Kovalev. They don't do it physically but, like Gonchar, rely a lot on smart play in their own zone -- using their stick well and keeping themselves between their opponent's forwards and the net. The problem for Philadelphia is that they can't send out two more pairings like this. Their second pairing, Randy Jones and clubfoot Derian Hatcher, are a notable dropoff from Timmonen and Coburn, and it gets worse with their 5 and 6 guys, Jason Smith and Lasse Kukkonen. Kukkonen, in particular, is someone the Flyers have tried to hide in the playoffs, and his partner, Smith, is a minus 3. This group tries to play physical -- especially Hatcher and Smith, the Flyers Captain -- but all 4 lack speed, which is likely to be fatal against the Penguins forwards who cycle well and move the puck quickly in the offensive zone.

EDGE: PENGUINS

GOALTENDING

A lot of the talk the last week is how good Flyers goaltender Martin Biron was against the Canadiens in round 2. Biron, making his first appearance in the playoffs this year, undoubtedly played quite well against Montreal, who outshot the Flyers for a lot of that series. If he continues to play as he did in the last round, the Flyers will have a chance. The question, however, is: can he keep up that play? Biron has never been an impact netminder in the National Hockey League. He's 30 years old and never had a firm grip on the #1 job in Buffalo, where he played before joining the Flyers, despite having several years to nail it down. Even this year, there were periods where Flyers coach John Stevens played Antero Nittymaki for long stretches because of Biron's inconsistent play. He will have his hands full with the Penguins offense in this series.

Meanwhile, the Penguins Marc-Andre Fleury, has continued to play with notable composure throughout the playoffs, continuing two months of oustanding play following his return from a 3 month absence for a high-ankle sprain. He leads the NHL in playoff save percentage and shutouts, and is third in goals against average. He's had to make very few spectactular saves because of how well his positioning has been. Although they each have about the same playoff experience, Fleury simply is the better goaltender.

EDGE: PENGUINS

POWER PLAY

The Flyers and Penguins have the 3rd and 4th ranked powerplays in the playoffs so far. and were near the top of the regular season power play charts too. Because of the offensive talent each team has, each power play can be a difference in this series. The Penguins like to move the puck around, while the Flyers tend to create a little more havoc around the net on the man advantage. The key for either is to create traffic and get a lot of shots. The Penguins have scored a power play goal in just about every playoff game so far.

EDGE: EVEN

PENALTY KILLING

The Penguins have been outstanding in this area, ever since the trade deadline acquisitions of Gill, Hossa and Dupuis. Gill, in particular, has been a force on the PK. Gonchar and Orpik also do an excellent job. They have killed off almost 90% of the penalties against them in this postseason. Meanwhile, the Flyers are killing penalties at a miserable 77% rate. Worse, they have taken the most penalties in the playoffs -- 57. Those two things are not a good combination, especially against a power play like Pittsburgh's. Timmonen is used extensively on the PK, as are Hatcher and Smith. All can be exploited around the net.

EDGE: PENGUINS

COACHING

Flyers coach John Stevens and Penguins coach Michel Therrein have matched up in the post-season before --- in the American Hockey League. Stevens' clubs won both series. Both have doen a good job leading their NHL teams to the post-season so far this year. Therrien hasn't had to push too many buttons, but when he has had to do so, he's made the right calls -- whether it be the use of timeouts or the changing of his defense pairings in round 2 against the Rangers. Stevens kept his team from collapsing and blowing a 3-1 lead in the first round against a Capitals team that was playing at home in game 7 with momentum. As an encore, his squad dispatched the #1 seed in the Conference in 5 short games.

EDGE: EVEN

INTANGIBLES

The Penguins have the home-ice advantage in this series, where they are undefeated in the post-season so far, and where they have lost only 5 times in 4 and a half months. However, the Penguins have never beaten the Flyers in a playoff series, going 0-3 after losses in 1989, 1997, and 2000. Does that matter? Probably not. But then again, the Rangers were 0-3 against teh Penguins in playoff series' going into the last round, and all know how that turned out. Neither team has more momentum than the other, and both should be well-rested.

EDGE: EVEN


PLAYERS TO WATCH

1) Sidney Crosby -- Playing the Flyers has a history of bringing out the best in Crosby, as witnessed by his 1.80 points per game average against the club. The Flyers tend to be physical with him, which clearly adds to his motivation. Who can forget Flyers defenseman Hatcher sticking him in the face and knocking out 3 teeth in a game last year -- a game which Crosby came back to score the game-winner (his 2nd of the game) on breakaway in overtime. He's been a really good player in the playoffs so far, but has yet to clearly take over any game, something he is capable of -- and due for.

2) Evgeni Malkin -- Malkin also has expressed an open distaste for the Flyers, so it obviously didn't take him long to fit right into the rivalry. Like Crosby, he has played very well historically against the Flyers, scoring 24 points in 15 games. His skill set will be tough for the Flyers' defensemen to contain and, in the eyes of some, has been the best player in the league throughout the post-season so far.

3) R.J. Umberger -- As mentioned above, Umberger tortured the Penguins this year, scoring seven goals against them in the regular season -- more than the 6 he scored in the other 66 games he played -- and heated up in the last round against Montreal. If he continues his hot play and the Penguins can't neutralize him, look out.

4) Mike Richards -- This guy's game is tailor made for the playoffs. He's not big, but he plays with a lot of heart. He goes into the traffic areas, scores big goals, and isn't afraid to mix it up physically. Although the Flyers have a lot of skilled forwards, none combine all those elements as well as Richards.

HOW THE PENGUINS CAN WIN

Use their speed and skill to take advantage of the Flyers weaknesses on defense, win the special teams battle, and continue to get solid goaltending from Fleury.

HOW THE FLYERS CAN WIN

Give the Penguins some adversity early in the series, be physical without taking needless penalties, and have Biron steal a few games.

PREDICTION

The Flyers will present more of a test to the Penguins than most observers think, but the Penguins just have too much talent and are playing too well in all facets of the game. They can afford a drop-off and still win; the Flyers cannot.

The Penguins advance to their first Stanley Cup Final since 1992 -- PENGUINS IN 6.