Penguins v. Rangers: Round 2 Breakdown

And the next Penguins victim is?????? The New York Rangers.

For those (myself included) dreaming for a Penguins/Capitals series, we can thank the hated Flyers for turning that into a nightmare in game 7 last night. Or, we could thank the 2 blind mice who officiated the game, Paul Devorski and Don Koharski, for missing (or refusing to call) the obvious interference (not goalie interference ... regular interference) call on Flyer forward Patrick Thoresen in period 2 for bodychecking Capitals defenseman Shane Morrisson when he didn't have the puck right into his goaltender -- leading to an open net score for Sami Kapanen.

Regardless, it's the Pens' and Blueshirts in round 2. Let's break down the matchup:

OFFENSE

The Penguins are led by a world-class trio of players named Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Marian Hossa, who paced the team in round 1. You may have heard about them by now. They also have good complimentary scoring from guys like Ryan Malone, Petr Sykora, and Jordan Staal. Max Talbot, Pascal Dupuis and Gary Roberts also are capable of contributing. The Rangers are no slouch here either. Veterans Jaromir Jagr and Brendan Shanahan are dependable, and last summer's free agent pickups Chris Gomez and Chris Drury also are capable scorers. Add in depth scoring from slick Martin Straka, Rookies Steve Dubinsky and Nigel Daws, and gritty Sean Avery, and there's no shortage of guys that can score. Jagr was particularly good in round 1 against the Devils. EDGE: PENGUINS

DEFENSE

The Penguins allowed only 5 goals in their 4-game sweep of the Senators in round 1, and are an underrated defensive team. They finished 10th in goals against in the regular season, thanks to a well-rounded group of guys who aren't the most physical, but play fairly solid at both ends. A big part of the Penguins game plan in playing defense is puck possession. Once they get they puck, they like to move it quickly out of their zone to their skilled forwards, and have guys like Gonchar, Whitney and Letang (one on each pairing) who can do this well. The Rangers, on the other hand, were one of the best defensive teams in hockey this year, but have a fairly non-descript group on the blueline. Of course, a lot of the credit for that should go to their star goaltender, Henrik Lundqvist, but Tom Renney and his coaching staff deserve some credit for having the team play tight in their own zone most of the season. Dan Girardi, in particular, had a very solid first round against New Jersey, and is a great shot blocker. EDGE: EVEN

GOALTENDING

Marc-Andre Fleury played better than any goalie in round 1 of the playoffs, stopping more than 95% of the shots the Senators threw at him, and finishing with a GAA around 1.25. He has been among the best goalies in the league in the lats 20 games, following his return from a high ankle sprain. The 23 year old's reflexes are among the best in the game, and his position and rebound control have improved remarkably this season. Fleury was quoted recently as saying it seemed like things had slowed down for him on the ice, and that shows in his play. Lundqvist wasn't quite as good as Fleury in round 1 against an offensively challenged Devils squad, but probably is one of the top 5 goaltenders in hockey, and has 3 consecutive Vezina nominations to prove it. He is capable of stealing games and can easily make it difficult for the Penguins offense to get on the board. He keeps the Rangers in games. EDGE: RANGERS

POWER PLAY

The Penguins finished the first round ranked at the top of the power play charts, and can send out 2 separate units who can finish. However, in round 1 against Ottawa, they sent out Crosby, Hossa and Malone up front, with Sergei Gonchar and Malkin on the points for their first unit, stacking the deck a little. They scored 6 power play goals in 4 games against the Senators and clicked at a rate better than their highly-ranked regular season power play, largely because, despite all the star talent they can throw out on the ice, they kept things simple on the man advantage -- shooting the puck to the net and crashing for rebounds. To continue that success in round 2, they are going to have to get a lot of traffic in front of Lundqvist. Malone could be especially key to that effort. The Rangers, on the other hand, can also be a scary group on the power play because of the guys they can trot out. Jagr still likes to control the puck on the half wall, looking to feed Shanahan so he can release his wicked shot, or dish to Rozsival, the former Penguin, on the point. As evidenced by his antics in round 1 against Martin Brodeur, Sean Avery is a pest in front of the goal. EDGE: PENGUINS

PENALTY KILLING

The Penguins have excelled in this area down the stretch since acquiring former Maple Leafs defenseman Todd Gill at the trading deadline. His long reach is an asset killing penalties and he's physical in front of the net, something the Penguins have lacked for years. Gonchar and Brooks Orpik lead the first unit and efficiently get the job done. The Rangers were good during the regular season killing penalties, but are killing at only a 79% clip so far in the playoffs. They will rely on Jordan Staal's brother, Marc Staal, along with Girardi, to help them on the backline in this area. EDGE: EVEN

COACHING

Michel Therrein has done a great job the last few years, getting the Penguins back to the playoffs for the first time since 2003. It's not always easy coaching as many star players as the Penguins have, but he has fostered a team-mentality and implemented a defensive system that all the players buy into. Rangers coach Tom Renney has also done well to blend his many veteran players with their younger players like Dubinsky, Dawes and Staal. This is the 2nd straight year he has led them to the 2nd round of the playoffs. EDGE: EVEN

INTANGIBLES

The Penguins have home ice in this series and Mellon Arena is generally regarded as a fairly hostile venue for opponents. They should get a strong boost coming out of the gate and, if game 7 is necessary, should benefit from being in front of their rowdy home crowd. The Penguins also have fared well against the Rangers in their playoff history. The Rangers went undefeated in Madison Square Garden this year against the Penguins, however. Injuries are not a significant factor for either team, and both squads are coming off a long layoff following round 1, so rust shouldn't be an disadvantage to either team. Jagr's motivation may be a bit of a wild card in this series, but reading him is like approaching Tom Barrasso for an interview -- you never know what you're going to get. EDGE: EVEN

PLAYERS TO WATCH

1. Sergei Gonchar: Sarge has quietly had a fantastic season, both offensively and defensively, and was snubbed in not finishing as one of the 3 finalists for the Norris Trophy. He plays in all situations, keying both the Penguins power play and their penalty killing. He can be a difference maker in this series

2. Marian Hossa: Hossa played very well in round 1 against the Senators. He led the team in shots with 24 and had a number of good scoring chances. He is beginning to show a chemistry playing with Crosby and if he starts putting the puck in the net more often, it will be hard to stop the Penguins.

3. Jaromir Jagr: Despite his declining statistics this season, Jagr can be a difference-maker. If he shows up to play, the Rangers have a fair chance of winning this series. If the Penguins are able to bottle him up, cut down on his time and space, and match Hal Gill against him on the ice as much as they can, especially while killing penalties, they could reduce Jagr, and perhaps the Rangers, to a non-factor.

4. Sean Avery: Avery is miserable to play against, just like Jarkko Ruutu is for the Penguins. The Penguins will have to keep their composure against him, and not get sucked into bad penalties. They did a great job of being disciplined in round 1 against Ottawa. They will have to watch Avery around the net too, because he can score if given the chance. Marc-Andre Fleury will have to be sure not to let Avery get to him, unlike Martin Brodeur in round 1.

HOW THE PENGUINS CAN WIN

Stay out of the penalty box, key on Jagr defensively, and look to screen or crash Lundqvist as much as they can.

HOW THE RANGERS CAN WIN

Don't allow the odd-man rush, get timely scoring from veterans Shanahan and Drury, and turn Avery loose.

PREDICTION

The Penguins are better offensively than the Rangers, but also have the other parts of their game at a high level. They may be a bit rusty coming out of the gate, but have seen the fruits of what can happen if they play their game, which gives them a lot of confidence. Fleury is playing as well as he has in his career. Provided they solve Lundqvist, they will win. PENGUINS IN 6