Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Musings on Marion ... and other thoughts before game 3


Marion Hossa has 35 shots on goal after 6 playoff games this year.

Only 2 of those have counted for goals.

For those counting (attention Ray Shero), that's 5.7%.

Now, this isn't to bash Hossa, who is a player this writer likes a great deal. Despite only scoring twice in the Penguins current 6 game playoff winning streak, he's had an impact on the ice. The Senators paid a lot of attention to him in the opening round, and the Rangers are now too -- and for good reason. He's had a ton of scoring chances and, despite only scoring 2 goals, is averaging a point-a-game in the post-season so far. He's also been very, VERY good defensively -- better than most wingers.

But Marian Hossa gets paid to score goals. Optimists will tell you that if he continues to get that many chances, they'll start going in for him. Maybe. But I'll tell you that if he doesn't start putting the puck in the net more, Shero might very well let him walk this summer.

This isn't because Hossa wouldn't still be a valuable player. It's becasue the age of the salary cap in the NHL makes it difficult to pay someone 7 million or more a season (which is what Hossa probably will command this summer) unless you're going to be a true impact player. With all the other salary demands on the Penguins this off-seasons (Malone's free agency, the need to give Malkin a new, big-money contract, etc.) , Hossa has to be a 40+ goal man for the Penguins to justify trying to fit him in with everyone else at that figure. Checking is tighter in the playoffs, so Hossa isn't going to score at quite the same rate he usually checks in at during the regular season, but he has to do more than he has. So far, he simply hasn't shown the same ability to cash in on his chances that he has demonstrated in the past. He had glorious chances in game 2. Jarkko Ruutu has as many goals as Hossa does in the playoffs so far, and on about 1/3 of the number of shots. Think of how the Penguins could be rolling along if Hossa were capitalizing.

Another guy the Penguins need to get going a little bit in game 3 tonight is Ryan Malone. Short of some nice moves to give the puck to Malkin on the play which led to Sykora's 4th goal in game 1, he's been quiet. The Penguins need to generate havoc in front of Lundqvist, especially on the road, and Malone needs to be active there in game 3.

The Penguins can take a stranglehold on the series if they win tonight. The Rangers are going to be revved up, but if the Penguins stick with their game, match New York's intensity, and stay disciplined, they have as good a chance as any to win tonight and then look to sweep their 2nd straight series Thursday. And all that assumes they don't get a breakthrough performance from Crosby or Malkin, which hasn't happened in the playoffs yet, but might occur any time.

Interesting stats to ponder going into game 3:

1) Of the 20 teams who have opened up the Stanley Cup Playoffs by winning their first 6 games, 18 of them have gone on to the Cup Finals, and 10 of those 18 have won the Silver Chalice.

2) Of the 285 teams who have faced a 2-0 series deficit in the playoffs, only 37 have come back to win the series. That's 12.9% for those counting, including the 1991 Penguins squad who, following 2 road losses to start the series, lived up to Kevin Stevens' guarantee and came back to beat the Boston Bruins in the Wales Conference Finals.

Interesting quotes to ponder going into game 3:

1) Jaromir Jagr, after game 2: "I don't think it was them. I thought it was us that made them look that good."

2) Henrik Lundqvist, also after game 2: "I think they looked a little bit better than they really are today. We know we can put more pressure on them. We're going to do that in New York and we're going to get the win."


Gary Roberts will probably be a game time decision again tonight. By the way, I think it says a lot about the character and maturity of the Penguins team that it's done so well thusfar in the post-season this year without veterans and cup winners Gary Roberts and Darryl Sydor really being the lineup for any meaningful stretch. I also think it makes it perhaps more likely that neither will be with the team again next season.

Game 3 Recap tomorrow.

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