A Penguins Season Post-Mortem: Part III

And so, in this, my last, post-mortem report on the Penguins' still-depressing second-round ouster at the hands of a Montreal Canadiens team that now hasn't scored a single goal in their Eastern Conference Final series against the Philadelphia Flyers after 2 games, I want to focus on the fulcrum around which much of Pittsburgh's off-season will be based.

Defenseman Sergei Gonchar.

I want to talk about Sarge, and the implications of his upcoming unrestricted free-agency on the team's summer plans as a whole. Before I do that, however, I first want to again express how astounded I was about the repeated and severe criticism I read having to do with the way he played the Habs' 4th goal in Pittsbugh's game 7 home defeat against the Canadiens.

That tally, of course, was Travis' Moen's awful and deflating shorthanded goal, the 4th in Montreal's run to a 4-0 lead and, evenutal 5-2 victory.

The knock on Gonchar for that sequence in the game came because of the way it appeared that he lazily dummied the play. Think back to the action. After a terrible giveaway in the offensive zone by teammate Chris Kunitz, Moen gets the biscuit, starts up the ice and then, at the center red line, dumps it behind Gonchar. When Sarge doesn't turn to get the puck in earnest or do a whole lot to disrupt the attacking Moen, he skates around #55, gets to the puck (which hadn't been dumped all the way in) at the left circle, then wrists a shot that easily gets through Pens' netminder Marc-Andre Fleury.

Almost every piece I read in the aftermath of that ugly game 7 defeat spoke out harshly about the disinterested manner Gonchar played that sequence. I expected some of that -- from those who don't know a lot about the game. But what I didn't expect was even respected writers like Hall-of-Fame scribe Dave Molinari from the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette criticizing Gonchar for the play.

I said it before and I'll say it again --- Gonchar played it right. He didn't turn around to get the puck in earnest because power-play partner Kris Letang was backtracking on the play with him and was almost parallel to Gonchar at the red-line when the dump-in was made. When an attacking forward dumps the puck in like that, it's up to the partner to turn and get it, and up to the impeding defenseman to just get in the way of the attacking forward enough to either make him go around him or disrupt his progress slightly.

Moen ultimately got to the puck for two reasons on that play. First, Letang was late in getting over. Second, Moen didn't dump it in all the way. Had he done that, Tanger would have had enough time to beat Moen to the biscuit. As it was, Moen got to it first and a terrible effort by Fleury once he did allowed what probably amounted to the back-breaking goal in the deciding game.

I'll admit that Gonchar could have done a better job impeding, but on the power play with your partner right there, you don't think there's a great risk in that situation. And you certainly don't want to take a needless interference minor penalty. Dump ins by shorthanded teams happen all the time like that. I don't blame Gonchar for not being on high-alert or otherwise playing it the way he did.

The bottom line is that the play looked a lot worse for Gonchar because of the end result than it had to do with the way he played it. Anyone who knows the game -- including Molinari -- should have picked up on that.

Anyway, that play was an unfortunate way for Sarge to basically end the year because it went hand-in-hand with the already rampant speculation about his status with the team for next season.

As most people know, the Penguins' power-play quarterback is an unrestricted free agent this summer. The 2009/2010 season was the last of a 5-year, $25 million dollar contract he signed with Pittsburgh coming out of the lockout season. With the Penguins and GM Ray Shero not having a lot of room under the salary cap, it's a fair question as to whether everyone will see Gonchar in black and gold again.

Of course, the question of whether Gonchar will or not remains to be seen. The question of whether he should, however, is why I have a blog like this.

Most observers think Gonchar won't be back with Pittsburgh next year, largely because of the cap and the fact that reports seem to indicate Sarge isn't interested in taking much of a 'hometown discount' in his next -- probably career last -- contract. Speculation is that Gonchar is hoping to maintain his current salary of 5 million per season on a 3 or 4 year deal.

I'm pretty certain the Penguins won't pay that (even if other teams might) or go to an extreme 4 year term, but how close can they get on either front? I believe Shero is willing to offer Gonchar a 2-year deal at around 4 or 4.25 million per, or perhaps -- perhaps -- even a three year deal for a little less annual money. I don't know if that will be enough to keep him, but that's probably about the limit of what we're talking about.

If Gonchar leaves, the Pens' will undoubtedly have a big hole on their blueline -- one they won't be able to completely fill, no matter how much young defenseman Letang and Alex Goligoski improve next year. Gonchar's veteran presence and subtle skill on the point of the power-play (looking off, changing shooting angles) are things that mean a ton and are things that #58 and #3 simply don't have down yet. Do the Penguins have to just live with that and let them learn, rather than overpay for a guy entering the twilight of his career who has had some injury problems the last few years?

Maybe.

But remember, Gonchar has shown no signs of slowing down when healthy. He rang up 50 points this year and still finished 6th overall in scoring among defenseman despite playing in only 62 games.

To put that in perspective, only Washington Capitals' defenseman Mike Green and Chicago Blackhawks' rearguard Duncan Keith -- who finished #1 and #2 in scoring among blueliners this year -- rang up more points per game than Gonchar. The other guys in front of Sarge -- Drew Doughty, Dan Boyle and Chris Pronger (and almost every one behind him) -- weren't even close.

Personally, I would like to see Gonchar return, if he's willing to take just a bit of a pay drop and sign for 2 more seasons, rather than 3. Sarge already spoke with Shero at the team's end-of-season meetings and I would expect the Pens' GM to keep the lines of dialogue open with Gonchar's camp into June as we approach the free-agency deadline of July 1.

If #55 isn't re-signed before then, look for Shero to see if he can get anything for Gonchar in the trade market in the way of a middle-round draft pick, much like he did with former Penguin Ryan Malone in the summer of 2008 after Pittsburgh lost in the Stanley Cup Finals to the Red Wings.

Make no mistake, though, everything the Penguins do this off-season revolves around Gonchar. If they keep him, their options to improve elsewhere will be more limited. If they let him go, then there's a much greater chance that Gonchar's free agent compadres on the backline, Mark Eaton and Jordan Leopold, may return.

I think there's a pretty good chance Eaton will return anyway, but Leopold's status is probably more tied to Gonchar's than anyone's. And that's true regardless of the fact that the Penguins re-signed physical depth defenseman Deryk Engelland to a 2-year, 2-way contract yesterday that will pay him $500,000 if he stays with the big club, and that the Penguins will probably also re-sign defenseman Ben Lovejoy -- who has as much chance as anyone of staying with the big club full time next season -- in the near future.

If Gonchar does leave, though, it might give the Penguins a chance to remake their team a little. They'll have more than $5 million more to spend in free-agency, and they could either use that on a shutdown, defensive blueliner like anticipated unrestricted free agents Anton Volchenkov of the Ottawa Senators and Dan Hamhuis of the Nashville Predators, or add it into the market for a forward up front.

While Volchenkov would look fabulous in a Pittsburgh uniform, he will probably command more in free agency than the Penguins would be willing to pay. If they can lock down Hamhuis for around 3 million a season, it would greatly improve the team's play physically and defensively in their own end. The Penguins made a run at Hamhuis before the trading deadline this season, and expect them to do so again in free-agency.

Notably, former Penguin Rob Scuderi is getting about 3.25 million per season on the contract the Los Angeles Kings gave him when they pulled him from Pittsburgh in free agency last summer. Think the Penguins' might have done better to keep him around and pay that after all? I don't know. I don't think defensive defensemen are quite worth that much, but the market dictates it. It's difficult in the cap world, but I don't think there's any doubt the Penguins weren't as strong in their own zone this season. Just as it's hard to not attribute that -- to SOME degree, anyway -- to the loss of Scuderi, and even Hal Gill after last season.

On the other side of the coin, the Penguins may be better at bolstering their continually subpar group of wingers with the extra $$$ they'd have if Gonchar walks. 3 or 4 million should be able to get a relatively accomplished winger to play with Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin. Surely the Penguins won't re-sign Ruslan Fedotenko after his season-long miserable play, and this year's marquee trade deadline acquisition up front -- Alexei Ponikarovsky -- is a big question mark to return as well, given his disappointing performance since Pittsburgh brought him to the team. Personally, I think Shero is still going to kick the tires on Poni in free-agency, but it's got to be highly questionable as to whether that will go anywhere.

There also has to be a question mark about 39-year old RW Bill Guerin.

Guerin is a great presence in the Penguins' locker room and, for a guy his age, had a relatively productive season with 21 regular season goals and 9 points in 11 post-season games. But how much does Billy "G" really have left? I said that before this last season and it's an even fairer question after another year. I can't say I'd mind seeing him come back for a final kick at the can in the opening year of the Consol Energy Center, but perhaps at a little less than he made this year (1.5 million vs. 2 million).

One other soon-to-be free agent is worth mentioning: LW Matt Cooke.

Shero will be wise to re-sign Cookie. By everyone's account (this writer included), Cooke is a perfect fit for this club on the ice on the 3rd line, and in the room. He had a strong season and a good playoff, which is what his game is tailor-made for. He'll command a raise on his current 1.2 million dollar a year salary -- maybe up to 2 million -- but re-signing him at or near that amount is the right way to go.

Again, time will tell what happens for Pittsburgh as they approach July 1. I will, of course, keep my readers alerted to any signings that happen between now and then.

In the meanwhile, I'm working on my end-of-season player grades, and should have those up early next week.

More then.