ANALYSIS: Penguins At The Season Mid-Point

First, Happy 2010 to Everyone.

Now that the 2009/2010 Pittsburgh Penguins head into the New Year with 41 games in the books, its a perfect time to take a step back and analyze our Boys of Winter. What better moment than to look back at where they've been and look forward to where they're still going??

Towards the end of this analysis, I'll list the three things the Penguins have to continue doing in the second half to the season, and three things that they need to change in the final 41 regular season contests. I'll also address who's undeachieving and who's overachieving -- with 3 players in each category --much like what I did when I analyzed the team at the quarter pole.

Currently, the Penguins sit at 26-14-1. They went 12-7-1 in the second quarter, very similar to the 14-7 record they posted in the first quarter of the season. They have 53 points and are second in the Atlantic Division, 4 points behind their season nemesis and Atlantic leader, the New Jersey Devils.

Pittsburgh also sits third in the conference, with the Washington Capitals one point better than them, and sixth overall in the NHL, with the San Jose Sharks, Chicago Blackhawks and -- yes -- the Phoenix Coyotes 6, 4 and 1 point, respectively, ahead of them in the Western Conference.

The Pens' continue to be an offensively driven team, scoring the 3rd most goals in the league, behind only Washington and San Jose. They have improved defensively in the second quarter, however. Only 8 teams have given up less goals. After about 20 games, they were in the middle of the league in goals against.

Pittsburgh's penalty killing continues to be respectable, sitting 10th overall when down a man.

I certainly don't have to detail where the Penguins sit on the power play. While they have improved on the man-advantage in the last 8 or so games -- clicking at above 21% during that period -- they sit dead last of the 30 league clubs overall to-date, converting on 15.1% of their chances.

Hopefully, the Penguins can continue the little run their power play is on. The different alignment they've been using -- with defenseman Sergei Gonchar alone at the center point and both Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin on each half-wall -- seems to have been working for them.

They still need to get more shots and look to avoid the pretty play all the time while up a man, but what else is new.

One other very notable statistic for Pittsburgh at the half way point is that the Pens' lead the league in hits. I can't say I ever thought I'd see from a Pittsburgh hockey club, and it complements their skating, offensive game really well. Matt Cooke, Brooks Orpik and Mike Rupp all do a great job leading the Penguins' hit parade.

Let's take a look at what the Penguins need to continue doing in the 2nd half, and what they need to change.

THREE THINGS THE PENGUINS MUST KEEP DOING

1) Win The Close Games

Pittsburgh has had an exemplary record in close contests this year -- as they have the last several years -- and needs to continue winning those games. They have a bullseye on their back against every single opponent. Because so few of their opponents are pushovers, a lot of their games are going to be close. Good teams win those.

2) Stay Healthy

The Penguins went through a meaningful rash of injuries earlier this year and found a way through it. They need to avoid losing key players for long stretches in the second half -- something that may prove a little more challenging than normal since several of their most critical performers will be involved in a little something called the Olympics.

3) Continue Getting Unexpected Contributions From Their Role Players

The best teams in the league have great depth, and the Penguins have shown that through the first half of this season with strong performances from several under-the-radar guys up and down their lineup. The best part is that several other players still have the room to step up their games in the second half.

THREE THINGS THE PENGUINS NEED TO CHANGE

1) Production Out Of The Power Play

I shouldn't even need to say anything about this. They have turned things around a little lately, but need to remember that they can't just get by on the man-advantage with their talent. They need to outwork the other team, even though they're on the power play -- especially down low.

2) Get Geno Scoring

Evegni Malkin has only 13 goals on the season so far -- a figure well below what he's capable of. It's easy to forget that Malkin is so young and still learning how to be consistent and confident every night. Right now, he isn't as confident and therefore, isn't shooting as much. He's traditionally been a great second half performer, so we'll see if he turns up his game throughout the winter and spring.

3) Don't Forget About Defense

The Penguins have given up a lot of shots the last 3 or 4 games, and that's not a trend they want to continue. An offensively-minded team like the Pens' is always going to need to be reminded that good offense starts with good defense. Pittsburgh plays a puck possession game. When they don't have the puck, they need to be sound and efficient in their own zone to quickly get it back.


Now let's hit on three overachievers and three underachievers at the halfway mark.

THREE PLAYERS EXCEEDING EXPECTATIONS

1) F - Mike Rupp

This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. Although he's cooled off recently, Rupp has 10 goals this season so far -- 4 more than his career high. He's shown much better hands than anyone expected and shouldn't for a moment feel like he can't get to the 20 goal mark this season. In fact, if Head Coach Dan Bylsma were to give him a legitimate shot on one of the top two lines with either Sidney Crosby or Malkin, Rupp could very well hit the 25 mark if things break right for him. He's been outstanding for the Penguins this year so far, and Pens' GM Ray Shero deserves a lot of credit for bringing him in this offseason -- and at the reasonable rate he did.

2) LW - Pascal Dupuis

Dupuis is another guy who is having a strong offensive season for a guy generally known as a role player. Again, while more quiet lately, he's lit the lamp 9 times and has done more than what's asked of him when filling in on one of the top two lines. For a guy who was the most likely Penguin trade candidate going into the season, Dupuis has served Pittsburgh quite well in the first half.

3) RW - Bill Guerin

For a guy who's 39 years old, Guerin is having an exceedingly great year. He's on a near 60 point pace this season, which is probably about 20 more than most thought he would put up on the year. We'll see if he can keep it up in the second half, but Guerin is giving the Penguins everything he has and more. Will he be rewarded with a USA Olympic Team berth? We'll see in about 90 minutes when the squad is announced but, hopefully for the Pens', he'll be kept off the team and given some much needed rest for down the stretch.

THREE PLAYERS NOT MEETING EXPECTATIONS

1) LW - Ruslan Fedotenko

Rusty is a known playoff performer and that's surely part of the reason Pittsburgh re-signed him, but with only 7 goals and 14 points in the first half of the season, he's not doing enough right now. Worse, his play in the Penguins' own zone is leaving something to be desired of late, and that's something that has Blysma unhappy. I've heard trade rumors about him, and it will be interesting to see if Shero doesn't try to move a guy that likely won't be back next year anyway.

2) D - Kris Letang

Letang's is an underrated two-way defenseman, but his game is still more premised on offense and moving the puck than anything else. With only 1 goal in 32 games this season, Letang can give Pittsburgh more. Confidence is probably a little issue with him, too, as he's even struggling to hit the net on a lot of his shots. Hopefully, the Pens' will get him back on the right path in the second half.

3) RW - Tyler Kennedy

TK started off really strong this year but after sustaining a lower body injury and missing about 13 games, he's had a hard time getting back in the groove. His 6 goals and 10 points in 28 games are less than what many expected of him at the outset of the season when team brass was considering playing him with Malkin. If he gets things going in games 42-82, the Penguins will benefit greatly.


Well, that's a look at the team through the first half. Let's hope they keep the gas on the pedal in 2010, beginning this weekend in Tampa Bay and Florida, and continuing on through big games in January against the Washington Capitals and Detroit Red Wings.

Lets Go Pens!