Wednesday, November 26, 2008

ANALYSIS: Penguins at the Quarter Pole

As the Penguins get back in action tonight on the road against the New York Islanders (7 PM EST), they have completed about 1/4 of their sechedule. There's no better time to examine their body of work this year so far.

The Penguins sit at 12-5-3, good for 27 points and second place in the Atlantic Division. They are 5 points behind the Division-leading New York Rangers (although they have 4 games in hand). The Philadelphia Flyers, having won 5 in a row, and the New Jersey Devils, trying to tread water without star goalie Martin Brodeur, have been creeping up of late, and are both 3 points behind the birds.

The Penguins are 9th in the league in goals scored and are 8th in the league in goals against.

Center Evegni Malkinl eads the league in scoring with 31 points in 20 games. Sidney Crosby sits 10th with 25 points.

Overall, it's hard to be unhappy with the Penguins' start to this season. They suffered meaningful roster turnover in the offseason, and started the year without their two best defensemen, Sergei Gonchar and Ryan Whitney, who are still missing time due to long-term injuries. The good news is that Whitney should be back next month, even if Gonchar won't be seen until March sometime.

Without them, however, the Penguins have gotten off to their 2nd best start in franchise history, and have positioned themselves (so far) as meaningful playoff and Stanley Cup contenders.

Here are the 5 biggest reasons for the Penguins success so far this season, together with 5 things they'll need to do better in the 2nd quarter if they want to remain one of the better teams in the league:

REASONS FOR SUCCESS:

1) GOALTENDING

The Penguins' goaltending has been pretty good this year so far. Marc-Andre Fleury, current suffering from an undisclosed, "day-to-day" lower body injury, has 12 wins, a 2.86 goals against average and a .907 save percentage. He was especially good at the beginning of the season, flashing the form that helped lead the Penguins to the Cup Final last year, even if he cooled off a bit before he got hurt. His understudy, Dany Sabourin, has played really well also. He leads the league in GAA at 1.66 and can add a .935 save percentage to his 4-2-1 record. He has taken advantage of his chance and will probably get most of the starts this week while Fleury continues to recover.

2) RECORD IN ONE-GOAL GAMES

The hallmark of any good team is the ability to win close games. The Penguins are 8-3-2 in those contests this year. In a league where any team can win on any given night and many of the games are close, pulling out the tight ones is what distinguishes a team. With their ability to score, and how generally well the Penguins have played defensively, they are well-positioned to win these games. And their always growing body of experience in playing them will only continue to help them in the clutch down the line.

3) FACEOFFS

Probably the biggest turnaround from last year has been the Penguins' ability to win faceoffs this season. The Penguins, who have regularly been near the bottom of the league in this category the last several years, are 6th in the league this season in winning faceoffs. Every Penguin has improved in this area, and several -- Max Talbot, Crosby and Jordan Staal are over 50%. Only Evgeni Malkin sits below that at 44%, and even that is a large improvement for him. Of course, the biggest reason why the Penguins have improved their stature in this area has been the acquisition of Mike Zigomanis. Zigomanis is winning near 2/3 of his faceoffs, and leads the entire NHL in this category. He's been a great find for the Penguins and coach Michel Therrein has wasted no time using Zigomanis late in games and even on the power play to obtain possession of the puck on key draws.

4) SCORING DEPTH

Everyone knows what the Penguins are going to get from Crosby and Malkin. What everyone didn't know is how they would make up the offense that walked out the door this off-season in Marion Hossa and Ryan Malone, among others. Miroslav Satan has done what's expected of him to make up for some of that loss. He leads the team with 9 goals. But he's not the only one who has contributed so far. Jordan Staal went on a recent tear and has now chipped in 7 goals. The Penguins have also got timely scoring from Tyler Kennedy (13 points in 20 games) and even Ruslan Fedotenko, who has 4 goals and 8 points, including some timely game winners (Detroit anyone?). The Penguins' have fared pretty well in an area that most thought they'd be weaker in this season.

5) DEFENSE

Without Gonchar and Whitney, the Penguins remaining defenseman have done a commendable job of helping keep the Penguins in games. Of course, the Penguins aren't getting quite the same production out of the back end, but Alex Goligoski has 10 points in 19 games and leads the league in scoring among rookie backliners. Kris Letang has also chipped in 9 points. Overall, though, it's the ability of the group to keep pucks out of their net which has done more to help the Penguins be where they are this season so far. Among their regular defenseman, only Hal Gill is a minus player, and he's minus 1. New acquisition Phillipe Boucher is minus 2, but that comes from playing on a Dallas team that was miserable defensively most of this season. Letang and Brooks Orpik are often matched against the other teams' top lines and have done a great job, and they get good support from Rob Scuderi, Gill and the others.


5 THINGS THE PENGUINS WILL NEED TO DO IN THE 2ND QUARTER:

1) GET PETR SYKORA GOING

Petr Sykora missed several games to start the season due to injury and in many ways, is still trying to get in the flow. He does have 12 points in 17 games, but with only 4 goals, the Penguins need him to score more.

2) SUCCEED ON THE POWER PLAY

It's no secret the Penguins have struggled a little bit with the man-advantage this year. This is where not having Gonchar and Whitney probably hurts the most. Still, the Penguins sit 15th and have the personnel to improve in this area. They need to be a little more simple on the man-advantage and look to score more goals from around the net, rather than on the perimeter. And, as Therrein has recently pointed out, they need to work harder along the wall and behind the net to maintain possession when they have it.

3) KEEP MARC-ANDRE FLEURY HEALTHY

Nobody knows exactly what type of injury Fleury is dealing with right now, but he hasn't practiced yet, so it probably will be until next week, at least, before he returns. Sabourin has definitely done a good job in his absence, but with apologies to him, the Penguins need Fleury to be back at full strength if they want to make anything out of this season. This is the 2nd year Fleury has had an injury that will keep him out at least a few weeks and that's not a good trend.

4) FIND SOME MORE GRIT

The Penguins have gotten good contributions from people like Matt Cooke, Eric Godard and, when he was here, Paul Bissonette, in this area, but there's no disputing that they still are missing some degree of abrasiveness when compared to last season. Only time will tell if the Penguins acquire someone to help them fill this need. It's an element I believe they'll need more of, especially come playoff time.

5) STAY INJURY FREE

Although the losses of Gonchar and Whitney have hurt, it's important that the Penguins don't suffer any other meaningful injuries this year -- especially to Crosby or Malkin. Malkin did a commendable job last year when Crosby went down but it would be hard for the Penguins to duplicate that success again this year without Malone and Hossa to help out.


Hopefully the Penguins begin a strong 2nd quarter tonight on Long Island. They'll have to contend with an Islanders team that has been playing very well of late. They've strung 5 wins in a row together and are getting good play from backup goaltender Joey McDonald in starter Rick Dipietro's absence.

It will be interesting to see whether the changes Therrein has implemented on the power play in practice the last few days (adding Kennedy to the mix and putting Malkin back on the point) will bring results.

Happy Thanksgiving ...

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