Well boys and girls, it's time to breakdown how I view the local hockey club this season in my 2008/2009 preview. I'm going to take a detailed look at the roster, grading the team's personnel and special teams. I'll also offer a few predicitions on the regular season, including but not limited to where I think the Penguins will finish.
So without further adieu ...
OFFENSE
The Penguins sustained meaningful free agent losses in the off-season, losing Marion Hossa and Ryan Malone, among others. They remain, however, one of the strongest offensive teams in the NHL. They have the best 1-2 punch down the middle in the game in Sidney Crosby and Alexander Ovechkin and proven scorers on the wing in Petr Sykora and Miroslav Satan. Does anybody thing Satan is going to finish with 16 goals again this year? I don't think so.
The team also added Ruslan Fedotenko to the mix this season, and he could find himself on the scoresheet upwards of 25 times. And with the Penguins' plan to play Jordan Staal regularly at LW on Malkin's line again, a significant increase in his production is in order. All in all, the Penguins have two strong scoring lines among a top 6 that many teams in the league would love to have.
Don't forget ... the Penguins have a decent collection of 10-goal scorers on the 3rd line in guys like Max Talbot, Pascal Dupuis and Matt Cooke. That's meaningful depth at the NHL level.
The flightless birds also usually are able to trot out some offensive punch from the blueline as well; however, with Sergei Gonchar and Ryan Whitney on the shelf to start the season, the Penguins certainly can't consider themselves as proficient in this area as they usually are. Kris Letang and Alex Goligoski have great potential to pick up a fair amount of the slack because both skate well and are excellent puck movers, but only time will tell whether they can get that done on the ice.
OVERALL GRADE: A-
DEFENSE
Because of their offensive firepower, the Penguins get overlooked as a solid team defensively. Last season, they finished 10th overall in the league in goals against, and were 3rd in the East only behind defensive stalwarts New Jersey and New York. Don't expect that to change this season. Penguins coach Michel Therrein has a good defensive system in place and holds his players accountable in their own end. This includes their superstars up front, Crosby and Malkin.
On the backline, the Penguins have a reliable group filled largely with veterans. Orpik has developed into a steady defender who knows when the right time is to start dishing out "FREE CANDY". Mark Eaton also is a dependable defenseman and excellent shot blocker. Daryl Sydor -- someone many thought the Penguins would have dealt by now -- is an experienced guy who can play both ends of the ice. Hal Gill, although slow afoot, brings a physical edge and adds a great penalty killing dimension because of his size. Rob Scuderi doesn't get noticed a lot, which is exactly what you want from him.
Even Letang showed himself to be fairly capable defensively last season, and that's really not his game. For a smaller defenseman, I've always been impressed with how physical he plays along with wall. He has great leverage and uses it wisely.
Goligoski is a little green in his own zone -- which is to be expected to some degree -- but he'll have to quickly acclimate to Therein's system and be reliable in his own zone. Until he does, the veterans can help cover for him and allow him to bring the offense that the Penguins need from the backline with Gonchar and Whitney out.
Together, this is a solid group, although the grade would obviously be higher if Gonchar and Whitney were in the lineup.
OVERALL GRADE: B
GOALTENDING
After his work in the playoffs last season, and 2 relatively strong regular seasons in a row, few are questioning Marc-Andre Fleury as one of the better netminders in the NHL anymore. To think how young Fleury still is -- he has many great seasons in front of him. Under the watchful eyes of goaltending coach Gilles Meloche, Fleury has honed his game the last few years. He's more in control and relies less on his athleticism except when absolutely necessary. He's also fast becoming a guy that looks ahead and quickly forgets the last goal. And who can forget about his improved puck-handling skills? Fleury is almost near a complete package in the net for the Penguins.
For as strong as Fleury is, the Penguins are another injury away from having to make Dany Sabourin their main netminder. That's a concern for me. Sabourin can be effective in spot starts and small stretches, but he hasn't demonstrated the consistency necessary to take his good size and put that to successful use over a long period. He was given the chance to do that last year when Fleury got hurt and couldn't hold the fort, which is why Ty Conklin got his chance to shine in the first place. Unlike Sabourin, Conklin took advantage of it. There's a legitimate question mark as to whether Sabourin could get the same job done if Fleury gets hurt again.
OVERALL GRADE: A-
POWER PLAY
The Penguins power play has been in the top of the league the last 2 seasons, and has most of the personnel to do it again this year. Crosby, Malkin, Sykora, Satan, and Staal will all see time. In fact 4 of those guys will probably comprise the top unit, with Malkin sliding to the point in Gonchar's absence. Letang will probably man the opposite point. He certainly won't be the quarterback that Sarge is, but he's got a good shot, and he's right handed. That will give the power play a different look. Expect Malkin to be more of the "quarterback" out there in #55's absence.
The second power play unit is likely to feature Sydor and Goligoski at the points, with Sykora and Fedotenko joining Tyler Kennedy up front. Not an intimidating unit, for sure, but when the top power play unit is probably going to play for 75/90 seconds, the 2nd unit matters less.
OVERALL GRADE: A-
PENALTY KILLING
The Penguins penalty kill was really strong after the trade deadline and into the playoffs last year, in part because Gonchar and Orpik really came into their own, and in part because Hal Gill joined the team. Of course, Gonchar is missing from this underrated unit, but Gill returns, and will be joined on the PK by Rob Scuderi and, likely, Mark Eaton. Eaton will help the cause, as he's a reliable shot blocker and intelligent defender.
I still believe the Penguins miss some snarl in front of their net. Orpik brings some of that, but he's always been a more physical player on the boards and in the corners than in front of the goal. Gill also will help in this area, which is critical because your best penalty killer is often your ....
Goaltender. Fleury's work in the Penguins' penalty killing successes down the stretch shouldn't be overlooked. He was great during that period and will need to continue to be mentally sharp around the net. He also needs to make sure he continues to do a good job reducing or eliminating rebounds for the opposing team.
OVERALL GRADE: B
COACHING
Michel Therrein was rewarded in the off-season with a 2 year contract extension on top of the year left on his contract this year. He's led the team to the playoffs the last 2 seasons, and the Cup Final last year. During those years, he's a combined near 35 games over .500.
The Penguins have adopted his system well, largely due to the success they've seen it can bring them. And even though there have been rumblings about him not being a players coach, the guy who was said to have the greatest beef with him -- defenseman Brooks Orpik -- signed a multi-year contract to stay with the team in the offseason. That speaks volumes on that issue, in my opinion.
Therein has 2 capable assistants in Mike Yeo, who controls the offense and directs the power play, and Andre Savard, who assists the defense and penalty killing. Savard has been talked about in a few places as a possible head coaching candidate, but so far, he remains with the team. The continuity having the same staff for nearly 3 years in a row brings to the team should not be underestimated.
OVERALL GRADE: B+
PREDICTION
I believe the Penguins will finish with 46 wins, 25 losses and 11 OTL this season, for a total of 103 points. I expect them to win the Atlantic Division again, and again finish 2nd in the Eastern Conference behind the team I hate more than any other -- the Montreal Canadiens.
A few other Penguin predictions for the season:
Sidney Crosby will lead the league in scoring again, finishing with 124 points in 78 games.
Miroslav Satan will score 34 goals playing with Crosby most of the season.
Jordan Staal will score 29 goals (again) saddling up next to Malkin for most of the season.
Marc-Andre Fleury will win 39 games.
Overall, it should be another successful season for the Penguins. Let the season get underway in earnest today in Stockholm.
LET'S GO PENS!!!!
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