GM Shero Says Hossa Will Test Free Agent Waters

Like Egan said about crossing the streams in Ghostbusters:

"It would be bad"

Kind of makes me think about how it would be if the Penguins don't sign free agent RW Marion Hossa to a contract before he reaches free agency on July 1.

That came a lot closer to reality today upon the news after the 2008 draft concluded that the Penguins and Hossa broke off negotiations, and that Hossa was going to test the waters in 9 days.

I must admit, this news surprised me. Although there had been some chatter the last few days, most signs suggested that the Penguins and Hossa were negotiating and, seemingly, moving towards a new deal. In fact, terms that had been publicly reported (even if denied by Hossa's agent, Rich Winter) were pretty much on par with what the Penguins would probably pay him -- 7 years, anywhere from 49 to 54 million. Those figures would represent a huge committment from the Penguins to keep Sid's big-time sidekick, although were undoubtedly less than what Hossa would get on the market.

Now, it looks like we'll find out whether that's really the case. Shero said that, although Hossa seems to have us as his #1 choice, he's going to test the market "just to be sure".

Undoubtedly, Hossa will receive offers greater than whatever the Penguins put on the table. The only question is how much. If I'm a betting man, it wouldn't surprise me to see some other team (The Rangers, Boston, Montreal, to name 3) throw 9 million (or even a bit more) a year at him. Will that be enough for him to walk away from what he spoke about so affectionately after the season ended?

I have to think that if Hossa solicits other offers on July 1, the chances of the Penguins keeping him drop significantly. Could he come back to us and sign whatever we offered? Yes. Is that likely? I don't believe so. At the very least, I would imagine he'll see if we can match (unlikely) or increase (perhaps) our last offer. Although I could see us upping our last offer, I can't see us doing so enough to meaningfully compete with what other teams are prepared to pay him. Realistically, Hossa is going to have to decide to accept probably 2 million a season less to play with us. For as much as I hope he remains a Penguin, I don't think that's likely. A million less? Maybe. 2 million? I'm not nearly as optimistic.

What may be most interesting about all of this is what the Penguins do now? Will they push harder to re-sign Ryan Malone and Brooks Orpik? Will they go after several unrestricted free agents of their own on July 1? Will they sign a restricted free agent to an offer sheet? I don't see them throwing an offer sheet at someone, but I do see them re-signing Brooks Orpik. Unfortunately, regardless of the Penguins needs if Hossa doesn't re-sign, I don't think they're interested in meeting Malone's demands (reportedly 5 million per), even with more money to spend. More likely, they'll go the UFA route.

The only problem with the UFA route is that there aren't a lot of blue-chip wingers out there in this year's free agent crop. Brian Rolston, Andrew Brunette, Niklas Hagman, and Kristian Huselius top the list. Rolston has been talking with the Wild for more than a week now, but I don't know if he'll sign before July 1. I haven't heard much about any of the other guys. All would look good in a Penguin uniform.

Hopefully in the next week Hossa will realize how good he has it here. If not, the Penguins will have some work to do.

More on the draft -- which is really an afterthought around here this season -- in the next day or two.